Let me consult them today and over the weekend and see what we can figure out, That would be awesome to have a long run down on GJ and have huge drawdown and at the same time make a killing on some FX options.
My dad trades options evey day. He of course owns all the stocks 100% no leverage on all options he does. I guess this is how he makes almost 100% of his money in the market this way.
Remind me if I forget 
Shorting UJ all the way up!?! HEH are you kidding me?
Are you trying to lose money? I dont care what is āobviousā to everyone.
What is obvious to me is that the USD is going to keep sailing despite the obvious HOLES in their boat. m2p Is trying to get long UJ LT. If you are a USD bear you will get more than a bloody nose this month. Something funny is going on, there is some secrets we are NOT being told. USD strength
vs GBP is hurting GJ a bit but UJ is rocking its world. The japs are more interested in selling crappy yen and getting real currencies! They know the true value if the yen!
Emotion is what makes the world go around. It is though intense emotions that we become super powers, it is thrugh intense emotion that the 120lb mother lifts a 3500 lb car off of her kids stuck inside. Emotion, especially intense increases your awarenss and personal power. It is things that are done with emotion that have the greatest effect in our life situations.
I say dont trade with emotions on GJ because until you master her,
she will crush your emotions. She will squeexe the trigger on your emtions,
like supernal Ima. She will humiliate your feelings and leave you feeling like crap, if you let her. SO I often say it is best to trade her without emotion because she is so powerful and can easily beat most men with her huge emotional intelligence quotient.
Well blah, I took off my hedge b/c I though she was heading up, Iād been watching that rising wedge most of yesterday. Looks like I had it figured out right just my timing was the worst possible. Hit the only red candle in the past 10 hours and it busted me, bleh.
Good luck pipsquito, I hope we see one guy make it out alive
Goshā¦I am really sorry. I pulled off my hedge last night at the last possible momentā¦if she had gone down 30 pips it would have killed me. I went to bed certain I was finished. When I woke up I see all she did was head straight upā¦I was miraculously saved. Not sure if I am happy about that since now I have to stay in the game and suffer longer. She has turned down now for a momentā¦bounced off of 206.49 and is now 70 pips lower. I decided to put the hatch back on and placed the hedge.
Only a few more hours of this market and I have more funds on the way so I figure maybe she will dip down for a while and I can rest some more. Everyone says she is going to resume the downward trek. I am hoping she at least stabilizes for a moment so I can catch my breath and figure out what to do. I got rid of one of my longs so I am at least less exposed.
I am really sorry you got wiped out. I wonder when exactly you let go of your protection. I know last night I was certain I was a gonner.
Wellā¦weāll see what happens now.
Sorry Elijahā¦I donāt mean to be negativeā¦but remember, it is only in my reality that I am pulling her down, if you ignore me and donāt make my ātruthā your ātruthā then you will keep her up in your reality.
Actually, I did manage to keep afloatā¦very close call. I woke up and placed my short to hold the fort while more calvary arrive on Monday and she has taken a huge dump so I am actually in a good place until she takes off again. I am hoping she continues down now!! Maybe it will give all of you hard a$$e$ another opportunity to stock up on longs!! Go for it!!
By the grace of god I am still in the game. Not sure if that is a good thing (if I make it out alive it is, but if it just is a prolongation of my death then no, Iād rather be dead!) But I have to say I am very gratefulā¦very grateful.
But I will take it instead as a sign that I am supposed to keep plugging away. As they say out here in Hollywoodā¦see you in the next reel.
This would work well; but consider that this is a forum for beginners who donāt yet have the degree of sophistication necessary to manage inter-market hedging. In other words, most here have heard of options, but are not at all familiar with them, and certainly have no experience with greeks. The idea of hedging with long puts is a good one, but for some that might only have the effect of muddying the waters further at this point.
DailyFX does maintain a carry trade volatility index that is derivative of the correlating FX contracts. There was a good summary of the index, recent market activity and implications for the carry posted here:
US Dollar Rally Masks A Severe Carry Breakdown
Weāve discussed at some point how this method is an instance of the carry trade at work, but Iād have to search to figure out where those posts are.
I agree. I started trading options after 4 years trading equities. I enjoyed it but it is a whole new ball game, requires a lot of study, much more than just trading normally, and experience ā¦ and money. Yes options are ācheapā but until you fully understand the greeks, the odds can work against you.
Just me, but the last thing I would want to do in forex is to also use options. Once one has acquired the experience to make their daily pips on a consistent basis, I see little point in adding in complications. I just like āsimpleā 
After my account busted I decided I needed a few days off to avoid the ole ārevenge trading syndromeā that I knew would show up. I came back today and sounds like I was the first guy to die in the horror film! I hope most of your accounts werenāt live ones like mine. I threw some indicators on there and started looking at different time frames to see how she followed them. I used OZās indicators (stoch, accelerator oscillator, awesome oscillator). Looks like she followed them exactly on the weekly and monthly TFās. She also bounced right off the 38.2 Fib of the 251-192 drop. Maybe she just should be played when the weekly and monthly TFās are pointing up? Iām gonna lick my wounds for a while and watch the British economy. From what I hear, theyāre just now hitting the same mortgage crisis that we did back in October that made us cry ārecessionā for 6 months while the dollar dropped and dropped and dropped. And real estate there makes California look like the sticks of Missouri. (where i grew up so Iām allowed to make fun of it) If that is the case, maybe thatās why the guppy is killing usā¦
I expect her to come back down to almost 205.00 then head up and test 207 going into the close.
SHe left me at the bus stop again at 204.40 I should have came up 50 pips and got one at 204.90. Now I wait for her to come down and get me again before she goes back to test 207
Thats where I would have placed the hedge. But like I said before if you know the tops and bottoms you can play her up and down. And this is what I called before chaos. You mind gets ragged trying to play her on both sides.
I wasnāt awake when it hit 206.50ā¦but I doubt if I would have put the hedge on right thereā¦but maybe at 206ā¦
I am going to put in a long at 205, and maybe take off my hedge when it zeros at 205.17 and put it back on at 207ā¦a much nicer place for it. But I doubt if all this happens before the market closes today.
And stopped at 205.50 so here she goes towards 207 without me.
Have a good weekend everyone. C U NEXT WEEK.
Yeahā¦same here. I was waiting like a crocodile under a bridge to grab her at 205ā¦and off she went. But donāt worry Elijahā¦I doubt if she gets to 207 before market closes today. She canāt get past 206ā¦a wall up there for her I guess.
But maybe sheāll punch through this timeā¦
Take care!! Say hello to the commonwealth for meā¦
Todd
And witht hast I will jump out of here.
GO GUPPY GO!
I think she is making a run for it now. I thought she would wait to the last minute after the big boys go home.
Sorry to hear that. I didnāt know if you were live or not. I guess everybody on this thread is a true cowboy.
Us cowboys donāt want to hear any demo horror stories.
Iām still in the boat, trying to revive Todd so he can help paddle us up this river of bleep.
I have been looking for the paddles, Did you take them with you?
Hey bubā¦Iām still kickināā¦my account has lost almost 50% but Iām still in the boat.
I had money wired today, and I just see that it is in the account! Wow, that was fast! Not sure if I want to wipe out my extra funds with this guppy fiasco but at least I have some room to play if I want to.
Still waiting for this thing to break 206. Doesnāt look like that is in the stars. I have a few longs I would like to make some profit on before setting up shorts on the ride down to 200ā¦ha ha. I canāt see her going down there now, she doesnāt usually do that ātesting the lowā crap unless she has just recently been there. She has a hunger for the higher numbers now. If she blows through 207 Iām not sure what to do with my hedge. I wanted to dump it at 205 but she never got back down thereā¦maybe she will later, who knows.
Now all I want to do is protect my new funds. Sure looks nice to see my balance up again.
Speaking of the carry trade, hereās this weekās update on DailyFXās Carry Trade Volatility Index:
Read it and donāt hesitate to ask any questions if something comes to mind. The present unraveling of the carry trade on just about every Yen cross (USD/JPY is the sole glaring exception) has heavy implications for trading the Guppy with this method.
I need some advice here. (the dreaded word!)
I am not sure how to manage this situation and wondered if anyone had any thoughts. I have 3 trades extant that go all the way back to 214. I have a hedge put on those trades that is about 70 pips in the red (put on at about 205.17). Right now the gup is at 205.82. I also have one small .5 lot long that was bought at about 205.70 that is not accounted for in the hedge.
When market opens on Sundayā¦what would be the best thing to do?
Hold onto the short hedge until the Guppy hits 207 or so and heads back down. Hoping then that it goes low enough to close it (at a āguessā at bottom!) for a profit, then just ride the huge long losses up to a point where they can be let go without too much damage. I have padded my account so if I go this way I could momentarily sustain the huge drawdown when the hedge is removedā¦also adding to the balance.
Close the short hedge now, at a 70 pip loss figuring sheāll go up and up and up. OR reopen it if she drops from 207 or so.
Anywayā¦of course it is impossible to predict. I suppose all I want to know is if anyone has done this hedging thing to protect their account and if they have when is the logical place to let it goā¦and in this case specifically, is the consensus the guppy will drop again once hitting 207 or so and go below 202? If that seems to be the prevailing wisdom then I should hold the hedge until the drop and let it go if she keeps going up beyond that. That would be a rather huge loss actuallyā¦so maybe just letting it go now, eat the 70 pips loss and put it back in if she heads back downā¦ 
Of course I donāt expect anyone to really KNOW what I should doā¦and I do what I do at my own risk! BUTā¦thought maybe wiser minds would have an insight I am missing here.
Needless to say I am not supposed to be in this position at all with all of these longs so out there, but that is how this system worksā¦if I could let go of the hedge and just let it run knowing it will go back up and not lose my account I would do thatā¦but I have to have the hedge if it goes below 204ā¦and it seems there is a possibility it will do thatā¦
Just curious to hear ideasā¦
Todd,
I donāt know how much draw down your account can handle but donāt use a full hedge short.
One, itās going to cost you money because the brokers get paid more for swap than they pay you.
Two, you are locked forever with this same question that no one will ever be able to answer because if we could, we would all be billionaires by now because we know every move the market is going to make.
I am thinking of taking a short call equal to half the positions of all my longs if the guppy shows any signs of diving again.
If I do this, I still make positive swap, I have less draw down on longs, I put profit on the books with the short, and I take the profits of the short and buy another long to average down with.
But thatās just me. If I was really that smart, I wouldnāt be in this situation to begin with.
Edit: Forgot to add this on why to only hedge half.
With the only half hedge short, if we go all the way to 214, you still make money. Close everything, take a week off on the beach getting drunk with your wife.