All the best for your kids, that’s great to read. We all hope they’ll have better future than we had and if you take an effort to speak with them and teach them they won’t turn against you and they will. Sincere congratulations Al ! as a trader and as a parent.
Seems to be the setups are working for you well Al, I know that curiosity killed the cat but I’m almost dying of this curiosity to know the ins and outs of the method. Maybe a separate thread would do the job as this is rrram’s idea and he and lots of other people have put an effort here regarding Guppy. Therefore is good practice to respect it.
BTW she runs like crazy now, nobody knows if this is a mere retracement or longer correction. She is in a terrible downtrend now and any turn in sentiment may erase the gains with a light speed. She is not for faint-hearted today. I’ve manage to catch some of her move but now feels like sitting on the ticking bomb. If another sceleton falls out of the credit closet things may turn ugly again.
I’m Guppy addict (even if my lazy broker increases the spread to 20 pips) so here is her daily candlestick showing some living.
Actually she just started the bus North and crushed this shorts and she is on the run.
I’d better go and collect some more pips when is screaming north. She may well reverse and run down as well, this is mad.:eek:
Here is another perspective. 4HR Ichimoku confirms her desire to run up. The next obstacle is bottom of the descending cloud. With her burning desire it looks she will touch the cloud during Asian sesion. I still can’t trust this reversal. The world hasn’ changed overnight, who knows how many damned credit sceletons are waiting still. The Halloween hasn’t come yet. :eek:
Trick or treat Guppy, trick on
Have to go to pick up my daughter now. I have many thoughts confirming your posts (my take right now is to stay with the lower TFs- esp. Hr. Do not trade against the direction of MacD) i.e. if MacD going up and is > signal line =buy. I have a day off tomorrow, so shall give an update.
Right now, it is the fundamonals.
FOMC coming out and fore sure we are going to 1.0% as walstreet needs it but dont be fooled by the gov and their lies.
The feds are now paying banks for excess reserves! read your mdoern money mechanics
Looks like time for a rally? LOL
better be heading for the exits LONG JPY against * this means I am short guppy. and getting shorter.
LT I have changed my view. JPY will kick GBP’s arse. Sorry for my flip flop here. but beware the bull traps set by the feds who have robbed americans blind and now they will rob everyone blind, as they now are bailing out Korean Banks (^#@&!#@^$*&@#$^&*THEY HAVE LOST THIER FING MINDS.
I can tell you if they surprise us and go to 0% instead of 1%, half the foreigners in the world will pull the rest of their money out of the USA.
True some will still be buyig stocks at a steal of a price.
But when it comes down to it. the only way to judge a business is by their assets and their business profits. There are all sorts of real steals out there.
I like top world brands, like Intel and caterpillar and others like them that are truly international companies, who sell their products and dominate the market all over the world.
In this high volatility market, Dont trade without stops and walk away even if you are short, she could shoot for the moon before she revists 140’s.
But she is going to the 140’s as sure as I am going to my mailbox tomorrow to get the incoming mail.
Dont be fooled by all the lies. Things are far from fixed in the USA and each day the picture looks bleeker. Printing up a bunch more fed reserve note
(AKA BAD CHECKS) will do nothing but decrease the value of the rest that FRB funny money floatng around.
FOr now you can still buy GOLD with USD at a STEAL. Gold is WAY under valued. DOnt be fooled. Buy the asset (GOLD) not the FIAT currency!
The other day I was on a website considering trading (exchanging) some digital currency back primairly by gold for some USD. The site was asking me was I SURE I wanted to exchange my gold backed currency for a FIAT currency (USD!) DOH@! I DONT!
The trend in the world is digital currencies backed up by gold and other assets.
We will not survive by continueing to trade in USD, which HAS NO ASSETS to back it up. Sadly my bank doesnt accept “bad promises to pay”.
It is time to pay the piper!
M: trend down W: trend down D: trend down ($ @ 10 ema which is trending down). MacD is < Sig and H20 lines and heading down.
4H: STO o/b fib @approx 50% prev resistance 160.60
H: $ > 200ema (down) STO o/b
a 15 min Target could be 164 (which is approx 62% retrace on 4H).
I’m staying out until later. I’m siding with Triple R> Probably, go short this evening when I have more time to look @ $ action after the news.
Want to re-read the blog post re: aud/jpy bounce (see if any correlation with other Yen x’s.
Here is the chart 4H LT we are heading down.
crappy small image unless I zip it. But nothing here indicates anything but down. DOnt be fooled by the little macd cross up.
Yeah, I wish I had been able to sit in front of computer during the news.
No longer wish to guesstimate with my money during these times.
Further scan tonight on the D TF. Fib drawn from Oct 14 to 24th.
50% approximates 10 ema
61% @ 167 ( a prev support level) and 18 ema. Could be a superior resistance level. If $ penetrates that strongly, then I might be favouring a possible trend reversal. A good area to keep an eye on.
Kept giving weekly updates and mentioned $ on M and W charts below low BB, I think this retrace is the expected correction for the BB paradigm.
I’m still gonna wait and sell the rallies in a downtrend.
Art: good thought. The past 2 weeks, I have been mentored by a couple of chaps on another site, re:fundamonals,so I have been pre-occupied.
G/Y can make/lose big bucks (this may shock you) Anyway, I shall look at another currency pair to see if my T an A has any success. My plan is a safe (WTFrig is “safe” nowadays?) less volatile pair. Hopefully, someone more intelligent than I will explain to me how to send the charts attached with my synopsis.
Why I am looking at hordamentals-she screwed me Sun-Mon and I had a negative week ( not severe, but a blow to my manhood[not that the ex and her lawyers left much of that:p]).
Anyway, I am reluctant to start a new thread as Triple R , yourself and some others have contributed positively to it.
I was introduced to it, intrigued by it, and eventually made some profit through it. Look at the number of views! When in a 1/2 to 2 years from now an upturn begins, people will suddenly discover the merits of Triple R’s wisdom.
This week was a catastrophe (in my humble opinion). $646.57 LOSS with 14 trades ( all 1 minis). I erred on the previous post- it was the Mon to Tues Asia and London that kicked me-I had 2 mini shorts that night. Arrived @ work, went to my trade station and was hit in the groin ($1451.23 in the hole).
Closed the trades and then immediately did an unforgiveable!!! I bought in a knee-jerk reaction in an effort to recoup my losses. From day 1, everything that I have read says not to trade emotionally,did I listen this week? Noooooooo0000000-! ended up $1525.84 down. Took a breather and traded w/o emotion and reduced the carnage.
Anyhow, mkts haven’t opened as yet in my piece of the planet, so I shall take this time to see what news is coming out this week ( I thought that I read that M. King is supposed to speak re: the GDP). If so, G/Y might consolidate until that time. If there is anyone out there who reads this thread and knows the date/time I sure would appreciate a note.
M and W trends still down.
This is a note to me to follow-up on ( from my limited reading the USD and Y are the stronger currencies at present. The futures $ index is up and the JPY futures is > H2O but x’d down signal. short-term? no trades.
G/Y- I shall wait until I find out when M. King speaks .
Before i had been verbally analyzing the market. But recently i have started writing some news and i am posting something here for the first time. So if any mistake or something wrong please let me know so that i can improve better.
USD/JPY intraday: turning down.
Pivot: 99
Our preference: Short positions below 99 with targets @ 98 & 97.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 99 look for further upside with 99.65 & 100 as targets.
Comment: the break below the support at 99 triggered a downward acceleration to 97.6.
Today, was a some profit (400+ pips) day; but a more profitable LEARNING day. Had a 1 mini short last night, was confident that BoE would lower interest rates and walked into my short being way drawn down! Panic set in and immediately, put a long to recoup some loss. Then, the short became profiable, but had the Buy loss on the books.
Anyway, juggling those trades, as well as, working the day job was more stressful than normal.
Now, that work has ended, I reviewed the day:
I wish that I had not “longed” emotionally.
2)I must trust my indicators that showed down on the long (M/W/D) TFs.
my 4H tonight : 3<5<10. STO 8/40 down. MacD <H2O/sis (down)
$ broke major support @ 154.55 ( my short sell entry point last night)
A Possible $ Target 149ish (ppt) is what I shall be looking for.
I think that I’ll just move my stop on the short that is now open.
The hordamentals? I am beginning to believe that I have as much chance of successfully predicting the future as the experts-they have TONS more $ bucks than me so they will be right weeks,months, years in the future.
I am a little guy, so I have to be right daily.
My take on the fundamonals? Recession, de-leveraging, risk aversion (re-reading this, I sound like I should be on a Financial News show):).
Note to me: draw your up and down trendlines,watch your indicators,sell the RALLIES in the downtrend.
I shall read all past posts on this thread this weekend, to learn more.:o
Time to look at my last week’s trades.
Not spectacular as I tended to avoid the mkt due to the US foregone conclusion, interest rates from BoE and EU.
16 trades: 3 losses /13 profits ($678.66 added to my account.).All were 1 minilots ( I am “chickens**t”).
I read all the blogs and the fundamental/technical analysis postings on babypips. Reading today’s “art of the chart” by Nick B ( Thank you for the time and effort that you contribute to assist us new guys),I realized where I have been making emotional errors in my trading.
Over the years, the material has given me - “if $ goes above such and such a
level, or if $ goes < such and such a level”-so, I watch and wait and if $ goes above resistance, I go long ( or vice-versa) and get clobbered.
Tonight I realized another piece to my trading puzzle.I am not a day-trader (the number of trades just indicates my chicken philosophy of profit taking). I am more of a position trader( the trend is your friend).
Armed with this self-knowledge, I shall watch and WAIT for $ to hit and bounce off of Nick B’s resistance points ( plus watch all my MacD, STO and EMA indicators).They could say that the trend might be at an end.
Going to T an A my chart now.
I have had to travel far and wide to work for a living.
Guppy has of course once again left me and taken all my monies.
I am wishing I was short at 160!
I thought we had some ST support at 149.80 but she proved me wrong. She tried to go sub 149 but some long freaks are jacking her up now.
But be careful she is getting ready to head south again…despite what the pros are saying that we have hit the bottom.
I am still thinking guppy is going to make a run for 140. I wish I had some dollars left so I could short some guppy. The rates changed on guppy due to GBP rate cuts so the short will cost you even more now.
But the way I think she is getting ready to fall right now heading into Asia, swap may not matter. Study the charts it is likely 140 is in the cards.
So much for being a guppy long, Someday she will turn around and shoot for the moon perhaps, but for now I am sure leaning to the short side, but I am not in the trade nor is this a recommendation.
Please trade your own charts and do your own T&A, learn to rely on yourself
not on others.
And if you really want to beat guppy…know that she lives to defy me!
If I say up she will go down and if I say down she will go up. So this is maybe a bear trap shaping up ATM. I am really starting to not like this Geisha Girl!
as a trader and as a parent.
