251 would be excellent; but do you see any basis for an extension back to that level? The trip down to 192 wasn’t simply a correction - although there is a substantial technical argument we are in a corrective upleg right now. And that jump above 209 was short-lived knee-jerk bidding, characteristic of a customarily illiquid Friday afternoon. A close above 209 would be significant for the long side, but be wary of fake-outs like that. I know you’re familiar with that Elijah; but even with this method, there’s no point buying above a critical level such as 209 late on a Friday without waiting first to see if there’s going to be a retracement from that level during the next session. It’s back to the “lower” v. “low” discussion - why buy @ 208.50 when there’s very good reason to assume we’ll see a decline to 208 - save your lots for the lower level, reduce your basis, make more pips on a run up. The difference in interest will be pennies.
I, for one, am not calling for a significant reversal - though I am short - but I’d say keep a good look out - the Guppy could break down from here just as easily as up - and the 78.6% extension @ 208.94 was pretty handily rejected tonight.
Most traders dont trade on Sunday.
Knee jerk bidding didnt get us to 209 on a Friday.
These lower levels rule until tomrrow. You have one down day (Sunday) and you are calling for a retreat? Sure some things look to be heading down, but we still have a bit of up to go yet. I discount Sunday’s trading. SO I will let you know tomorrow.
But I did buy down to 207 and sell all the way up for a basket full of pips.
And should it keep going down again to 207, I will be buying.
Friday I was Flat before the market closed. Sunday opened and suddenly I had 12. I now have seven but sold at least 10 for a profit. SO I hope your shorts work out, as what I am doing is working out here
What would you call Friday afternoon (EST) trading? It’s not illiquid, relatively speaking, but any move past a critical reversal level on the low volume characteristic of that time of the week needs confirmation. I would agree about Sunday - in my experience, a lot of trades set up Sunday evening while the market proves counterintuitive overnight. If I don’t stay up to monitor, I typically trade lightly.
Note in my post I’m not calling for a retreat, though my own account is short. Just noting, as I did on Thursday, there’s a good argument for both directions - right now I do find the short side a bit more compelling, but that isn’t meant to be predictive. If “tremendous upward pressure” reintroduces itself overnight, I’ll be right there with you, looking for 213+.
Jebatfx agrees with Andrew, but rrram2 (Elijah?) knows his guppy … I can’t wait to see how this one plays out. I am long in my demo acct, added some more just now.
Price bottomoed out at Exactly the 268SMA on the last 60M bar.
I do expect this one to hold, as I have no sma’a below this 268.
I will check some fibs later, but it is safe to think of this as the bottom.
But if this is the bottom you are waiting for it would be here.
And swing traders would buy a crapload here with a tight stop loss,
and ride her up up up.
I am scalping like a mad man.
WHen I saw the bottom I identified earlier. I took my advice and got 5 at the then low. I already sold it for 5 lots x 20 pips. I sold some others and bought more.
I am playing the breakout on the 15min, while holding my grid in place.
I got 5 more down arounf 206.09 yes going against my better judgement.
I was even going to set a SL on those 5, but decided against it.
If it break down below 205.50 I dont want any 5 lots on any open orders.
But did I tell you how sure we are going backup? DO you really think
the liars in the house are going to let the dollar go down in flames?
At least not yet, they aren’t ready. First they have to sell all thier USD for some Amero’s.
Why do you think the USD/CAD is at parity now and the peso is coming up. IT is a done deal this Amero as pathetic as it is. It will not fool anyone. But iw will tie us up with canada and mexico. Just think of all those excellent workers we get when the North American Union is formed. And for very little money we take the next step to one world GOV.
I appreciate the heads up Andrew and I thrive on down’s like this.
I am still at 9% margin useage with my swing trades. ANd JUne is here,
checks and rents will be coming in. Last month I earned well over 2G in interest so the 4000 pips last month I made in GJ was unusually low for the month. Maybe I am getting too conservative. In any event I have some minutes to trade for dollars today. You know a dollar is getting worthless when a dollar a minute for pay is not enough.
Why wouldn’t they. There is a 99 chance we will return to 208.00 and above today. And if they didn’t ride it down. 205.50 would have been a great place to get a boatload long.
Maybe I will just start swing trading GJ too. It comes with mad draw down too sometimes.
The trust funds and banks make money by holding their positions longer and COLLECTING interest.
Its funny I have a brother named Andrew. Who used to trade for the Japenese banks. Needless to say he lost 50K on some trading and his wife took him out of the pit. Of course he still has millions, but he has retired from trading, as has my other brother. My dad and uncle are still in it, they are die hards like me.
You can run me down but not out. I am ready for another 1000 pip move down but we won’t get that. When the USD positive news hits at 10am HOLD on to your shorts! NOt literally though, I suggest you should have already dumped those shorts.
Sure thing, Elijah. I understand your method, where margin is used appropriately, doesn’t really need to pick out a probable low, especially if one intends to scalp during a down move.
I agree with you on support here, at least temporarily: H1 saw a bounce just below the 144 EMA, and now some lingering just below a fib fan @ 206.05 with the occasional probe. We just closed (0700 EDT) the second consecutive hourly candle below the fan line, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Still short, but took some off the table and got a somewhat conservative stop in play here - wouldn’t want to miss a trip up north with you.
I would get more long here on a swing trade and hold them.
I am already using as much of my margin as I care to at this point.
I am preparing in case we run down another 150 pips.
That is very unlikely though. GBP is a deal at these levels for the big banks.
I have went back and cancelled several pending orders since I won’t be here today. And don’t want to get in deep while I am gone.
NY opens in less than 1 Hour then we will see what GJ will do.
London sure ran us down. I banked a few hundreds pips today but am holding steady ATM. I will hold these longs as long as I need too. And if we get another 300 pip run down I may need to add some insurance to my account, to be extra careful; in the event of another run down.
It sure looked good for the bears last night. I am up to 14 with that foolish 5 lot buy at 206.09, so from here I won’t be buying any while I am away as I don’t even want to test GJ’s ability to run someone down and OUT.
She has done it too me before and I will not allow it to happen again.
WAAAAY too many too high. I’m down bout 2k on a 5k account. She’s at 204.75 and slowing down (at least it seems like and i hope she does.) Does anybody on this thread trade during the US market?
HAHAHA, that sucks. gotta watch out for those tricky cops…or be able to lose em So I have 4 orders in at 208ish… We’re a little bit down from there now… I have 3 orders in at 205ish that are in the green. I’m sitting at about 40% margin. What would you suggest? Should I let the 205 orders ride back up to 208 or close and scalp on the way up?
I am in sort deep at 9.99 used margin I have 16 but one of them is a 5K lot the rest are 1K. The 5K lot is @ 206.09. So not counting that swing trade.
I have 4 lots in the 208’s 5 in the 207’s and 5 in the 206’s (not counting my foolish swing trade) and one in the 205’s. I have only been able to scalp 2 on that last run up into 205.75 before the next bottom drop.
I feel good but am conserving my margin and am not buying any more atm at any price at least until I can get rid of m swing trade. So I will get more money to put in instead of knowingly going above 10 margin useage (so I can still scalp) while holding my longs open until they hit their tp’s.
You will learn to crave these exciting run downs because in time you will learn that a run down, runs down from your loss leader that acts as a “marker” and eventually price will run back up and zoom past your loss leader going higher.
The us market is what I most actively trade. I get up early and catch LOndon and stay up late and catch asia. The best times are obviously when there are two markets overlapping or within the first 144 minutes or so of trading in any market. During other times price movement can be very slow and extremely boring just sitting waiting for lines to move on a chart.
thus lowering your margin and try to play with one scalping.
After you sell those 3 try to buy one to replace those 3, BUY at the lowest or average of those 3 you just sold. Then scalp all day with that one. Selling it and buying back lower or at the same price.
I normally dont scalp on the way up, though I have. It just seems weird.
Not as weird as buying into a crash though, with no stop losses eh?
40 isnt so bad if you dont buy more and it doesnt run down any more you will be ok. I have drawn some lines and looked at some fibs. 204.60 should hold, I am surporised it was able to get that low. But it sure HAS to come up, it IS what SHE DOES, it is her MO. 205.00 may even hold for retracement down.
I think we are done downwise and shouldnt go any lower.
Now is the time to scalp them over and over in range. 50 pip ranges are ideal for this. Trade on the 2 min with some fast stoch or stoch rsi.
You trade her enough and you will naturally start instinctively KNOWING what to do.
sweet! I’m loving this thread. I’ve always tried to learn about all pairs in general. I’ve come to the conclusion that they each have different personalities. (haha, just took me longer than most to realize this) thanks a lot for your commentaries. I’ve learned more in the last 2 weeks than I have in 6 months studying every book I could find. Time to scalp up!
I do it in such a way so that I am selling my longs at the same price I bought my old longs that are still open.
For example if I have a long at 205.79 (I DO)
as price moves up from 207.50 I will buy one somewhere in here at say 207.50
and set it to TP at 205.79 so when it sells my other long is just turning green.
But I don’t like to buy scalping up if I already have an old long from 205.79 because I dont want two at the same price. I would have to agree with that personality thing. It is as if each has its own mind and conciousness.
I love GJ for obvious reasons I have previously stated. To me GJ is a SHE
and like several other “SHES” in my life she has ogtten me in the past and cost me money and squeezed the trigger on my emotions.
I have learned MANY valuable life lessons from her. And I will beat her if it is the last thing I do. She had me sweating earlier. As really I do not like to exceed 10% margin useage as things get real hairy from there. Those days or riding at 50-100 are gone for me…that will make you bald!
She WILL teach you patience for a small price or for a very large price if you like. Pateince in life is very important!
P.S. I have exceeded my lifes limits of beating cops in road races.
so AT rollover I will be getting 5 cents X 20 so $1.00 USD.
So If I have to hold these lots for the next 40 years,
At the end of 40 years I will have collected 14,600.00 USD in interest
on MY USED MARGIN OF $98.30. I only have 2 minilots.
The pound is something that WILL ALWAYS be worth WAY more than some YEN. Hang in there if you live through this one you will have learned a boatload of valuable lessons. Underestimate her and she will swallow you.
Give her a Stop loss as a target and SHE will hit it!
- the Guppy could break down from here just as easily as up - and the 78.6% extension @ 208.94 was pretty handily rejected tonight.
