It’s me again, still preaching about this strategy using the 200 ema (15m). Please don’t flame me:D
I wish this sucker would make a trip south well below the 200 ema (15m). Then I will be on board buying all the way down with you guys.
I am eager, but I am going to let it come to me.
Well…I am not going to trade this live yet…but I have set up a demo account just for this strategy.
I am still of course very impressed with it but wonder if there is a way to avoid catastrophe…even if it is unlikely.
Tell me if this idea is nuts. Still being aware of margin, and making sure you are within the percentage rrram2 suggests, if the thing goes down thousands of pips you are still at risk. How about devising a “stop” so when you get SO close you can feel the flame you create a short order that equals all of your lots in play. Use it only as insurance, to keep from getting called. If the pair continues down your drawdown is then frozen. If it heads back up you run the risk of losing a bit of money, but you can close the trade at a minimum loss (although since it covers all your lots it would be substantial no matter what…better than a blow out.) The trick would be knowing when to place this short trade (obviously as close to the bottom you can stand). And also it would be difficult to know when to close it, best case scenario would be to close it at zero after it goes down a bit and then heads back up.
Am I missing something here? Probably so as I am not very good with this “hedging” strategy.
I also would like to devise some sort of entry point that wouldn’t require such a tremendous retracement in order to get flat again.
Maybe I am making this too complicated. I just don’t want to be in that position again where I watch my account go down the drain with nothing I can do about it…but maybe my attitude is all wrong here…
How about this…
When margin percentage gets to a certain point you will have to accept the fact that you will have to let a few off the hook. Simple huh???
I know that sucks some because you will have to trade with a very low true leverage to stay for the long haul. To much leverage and you already know what this pair will do.
It is what I plan to do. See my other post for my entries. I believe this strategy can produce a nice equity curve if followed real conservative.
Since the equity curve will be very little for me, I will still be making my normal speculation plays using my other strategies for the big money movements.
The shorting idea I made for a one time event that I thought might help you guys because of the situation at the time. The reality is knowing when to place the short is easy, knowing when to close it will be much harder due to normal speculation coming to play, which is pretty much not the theme of this strategy.
Isn’t that basically what my broker does? When I got called the broker closed trades one by one…and only close enough to keep my head above water. When it was all said and done they had closed $60,000 worth of trades. So whether they do it, or I do it, what’s the difference?
The shorting thing seems to be the thing that would work…but you are right, when do you close it? And it seems like a weird strategy…and you would lose on it for sure.
Well, my solution, which I posted earlier in this thread is to watch the pair on the daily/weekly, draw fib retracements from recent sh and sl, and when it exceeds the bottom fib retracement, time to hedge or start lightening up. More details on the prior post.
And, like MTP, I am not entering long again at this point. I will wait for the next clear retracement and when the cycle looks up again, that’s when I will play again (still in demo for the moment).
Because although I subscribe 100% to rrram2’s “create your own G-Y reality” … I still have to tie my camel. I do not have the resources to top up my account if it gets blown out. It is easier to “create wealth in your mind” when you also have some tangible assets in your bank account. Until I get to that point, I will keep creating … but will unfortunately have to keep one foot grounded in this (albeit illusionary) physical reality where my bank account does not allow for any more topping up of forex accounts 
So my plan is to watch the “reality” of what G-Y is doing and that reality is telling me, no more buying for now…
Yes it is sort of the same… but your broker does it when you are out of options. If you do it on a more conservative side, it leaves room to buy more as the pair looks for that bottom.
Yeah… I don’t want to start this process at a potential top either. I will wait for it to come to me. Some backtesting has shown it will come to you about once a week (sometimes longer like now!). But once you are in, it could be a long string of trades.
“My eyes and heart remain focused on the end goal at all times. I awaken the persistence and passion to never and that means never ever settle for less!”
Yehuda
We spread all our orders 10 pips apart like a grid and set TP at 21 pips
so you are buying on the “9” and selling with 21 pips profit on the “0”. But quickly we realized that there is no point in getting TOO MANY TOO HIGH (TMTH) and that it would be better to have MORE lots at the bottom.
Of course we dont know where the bottom is. And if you are buying every 10 pips you will always be buying AT the bottom, at least within 10 pips. BUt this is most helpful to your position if you have MORE longs at the bottom than spaced 10 pips all the way up. SO we scale in down as we expect price to move down to a point and reverse back up. And I still try to take 21 pips.
which means price has to move 30 pips, 21 for me and 9 for my broker.
He gets HIS first. SO If I only take 12 pips profif thats 12-9 so I get 3.
You can never have too many open by the shear number, you CAN over extend your margin though and USE way too much of your margin.
I had initially set my loss leader to sell at 251.00 because as I continued to play friday all m orders kept getting filled and hitting thier tp’s even the loss leaders up AT the top and at the new ST tops. This hhappened to me so many times friday I set the last loss leader to 251.00 but apoparantly I changed it before I walked away friday. I dont really know what happned yet, aside from obviously we made new highs and closed above 209.
So I am flat again. For the 3 weeks ending Friday my account is up 62.5%.
I expect to be very busy next week. All my orders are still pending I have honestyly so many I cannot easily count them. I have adjusted them several times. And should adjust them at 4pm EDT today when the market opens for me.
I am not scared at this point. I can tell you I had bought one above 209 a long long time ago and that thing must have sat for months earning interest.
I am hesitant to gett any in the 209 range yet until I asses the market and the charts.
The more things change the more they stay the same. Nothing is changed except GJS location on the chart, its MO is still the same.
Based on all market indications the bottom was already reached on Sunday when the feds (foreigners) bought out Bear through Chase and that emergency .25 rate cut on a sunday night was totally foreign.
I was not kidding about the 251. We will return to that area.
Esignal had a GJ high on the BID of 209.39 Friday
I pity the fool calling for a significant reversal down at this point.
As to HOW the dollar is coming back remains a mystery. From all old estimations from several years ago, the US was expected to be BK this year.
Until we have a new man or woman in the white house the market should remain pretty tame, but once the Dems get in watch out, then things are going to explode, and many business will have to give up some of their profits to support the masses. Many more will go under.
I have sold all my stocks, but many great buys remain for the more conservative. Disney, Verizon, Budweiser, INtel, Microsoft, wal-mart,
and Starbucks look strong and can be had at or near record lows
I don’t expect Gold to do too much until the end of the year. The dollar HAS to come back or it will be dissmissed as the worlds reserve currency.
Also the SDR may have the dollar eliminated from it as one of the currencies
if its pathetic performance continues. Soon the Amero will move in and the dollar will be no more.
DO not think about what you do not want.
Time spent thinking about (focusing on) being sold out on a run down like we had 3/17 is time foolishly spent. That was a one time deal based on a bear bailout and a bit or seemingly underhanded stuff.
If you manage your margin as if to be able to live through a move down like that, you will never be sold out.
You also should NOT be thinking about wallowing here and miss the next 150 pip move up into 210.50. It could be overbought…YES but it is going to get a whole lot more overbought before it sinks. And when it sinks it isn’t going to sing as much as it has risen.
If we open above 209 that will be very toppy. It will be a week full of news with NFP at the end. If that comes out positive US GJ will soar. Do not be fooled by all the doom and gloom the worst is over or ALREADY forseen at this point. Yes more mnortgage defaults will come as people owe more than their house is worth. But you know what>? You WORK then and pay the mortgage. You have to live somewhere. In the meantime I will continue to amass debt and assets in the service of others.
price is tanking hard and in the 208.20’s
Lots of my orders will get filled and ill be in in an instant.
low 207.58 on the bid on Esignal, heading back up now. I’d like to get a bunch of orders filled for the ride up by my orders wont fill until 4pm. It doesn’t stink in a way because I cannot if I wanted to cancel some of my pending orders until after 4PM. So I could not prevent old orders from executing.
Guess where I bought it down to and where it is going back to.
Would have been nice to have bought some at 206.99 eh?
And still beholding them or even having had scalped them for a few dozen pips.
i have some questions, i havn’t read the threads full until now because my interest is much stronger at the moment, will take the next week for this adventure.
Since we was at a high 240 last year i would ask if u still have a open order there…
Because i didn’t have thought before about carries and interest rates on strategic long(ing) i would ask how it will work lets say i place a order one microlot (1000 gbp) long on what i earn the interest for it on the 1000 or on the margin?
Fxsol has a leverage of about 400 this will mean that i’m able to move effective 2.000.000 on a 5.000 account.
did u ever place trades at the 9’s in 10 pip ranges or will you extend the range?
thats first of all, i hope that you can answer me this questions, and i will take time next week to read the thread to understand more, sometimes i make it harder for that it is… =)
Nice evening
hakunamatata
Ok what the hell? Most broker platforms I use aren’t even on time with the opening at 3:30? Why the hell is that?
IBFX hasn’t started yet and EFX started at 5PM
Missed a nice run down to 207 and now it’s back up, what a load of crap.
Only OANDA was up and running at 3:30PM
[B]“Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.”[/B]
Thomas Edison
No I was short there and it topped at 251 or something and it kept hitting my SL and making new highs so I gave up GJ for a while because I could not believe that no matter how sure it seemed gj would fall that it didnt stay down for long AND kept going up. Interest at fxsol on 1000K micro lot is
about 5 cents a day, 7 days a week, every week.
Yes I used to place trades 10 pips apart going down.
WHich is what I JUST had on that last RUN! I am up a lot of pips.
I bought down to a low of 207.09 didnt have an order at 206.99.
But I had at least 12 from 208.59 down to 207.09 and all sold but a few and I am scalping and baggingmore pips. I used to do every 10 pips down but one on the 9 and they sell it at 21 pips profit for me, which means 30 pips higher than I bought really because the broker 9 pips is coming out of that. Then sometimes I take 1-20 pips by manually closing before it hits tp and closes. Then I rebuy lower if I can or at the same price often.
I see the price movements before the market open for me bby at least an hour. If I have orders in the will be filled weather I like it or not at exactly 4PM EDT when fxsol opens. But esignal shows me the price feed when it opens
long before I can trade.
hey rrram…or anybody else.
does using the charting of esignal make a big difference with this system? it seems like it wouldn’t since the orders are placed based on the “general” bottom rather than a very precise bottom. Also, the orders would be filled according to the feed of the broker you’re using. Or do you use esignal for other reasons?
I took a long time learning esignals advanced get charts and it is excellent.
I have then another feed other than my broker. Yes I go by his as my orders are filled by him. But this way depending on how he plays I can adjust my prices on my orders to adapt. My accucharts crashes alot. And esignal is so much nicer to look at, but uses more CPU and MEM.