Carrreeeefulllll … your eyes are wandering to someone more exotic, mysterious … younger? She may not like that…
Also see next comment.
OK, I capitulate … in just over 2 weeks my demo account where I ONLY go long the G-Y, never short, never any other pair traded … that account is up nearly 20%, that is like nearly 40% a month AND I have been trading it with half my brain, half focus, very nonchalontly, casually, no particular strategy except to buy every pullback and continuously sell into rallies, grabbing 10-50 pips each time, while holding a few for longer term gains.
In my other demo account, I traded some other strategies and am flat.
In my real (micro) account since Monday I have been both long & short the G-Y, and have also traded a few other pairs. I am up 6% for the week. Subtract the trading of the other pairs and it would have been up 8%. Most of the gain was in the past 2 days when I begain switching to just going long the G-Y like in my demo acct.
I did a quick excel spreadsheet, calculating starting with $1200 and earning 8% per week… this is VERY conservative from what I am seeing. Even so, you would turn a $1200 account into $1 million in 89 weeks, or about a year and nine months. AND this is using mm that requires starting with 1 micro lot, aand lthough multiple positions can be open at once, you would never exceed 15% of margin (85% always available). A mini lot would not be traded until the acct value reached $12k and a full lot when it reached $120k (week 61).
You advance to trading 2 lots at a time at $190k (week 67) and at the $1 million mark you are trading 9 full lots at a time, multiple positions (each position opens 9 lots). This, if my calculations are correct, keeps the % margin used to 15%.
So by this calculation, you could sit back & trade the G-Y very casually and only going long with never more than 6-8 positions open at a time … and become a millionaire within 2 years … well, 3 if you factor in taxes 
I know the real key to forex wealth is to find something that works consistently, that you are comfortable with, then just do it over & over again using the same strict guidelines that you used when you started… and just increase position size as the account grows. Bunnygirl, who invented the BGX or bunnygirl cross made her millions not just because of the X itself (which needed constant revision) but because of the WAY she managed her trades. Always open 4 positions, take profit at 10, 20, 30 pips and let the 4th ride with a trailing stop. Exit rules very rigid as well. The BGX worked often enough and by doing it this way every time, that is how her account grew exponentially (according to her).
So we have in here a neat little system that works ‘most’ of the time. The rest is just how you trade it. No I will not hold positions open for months or years with no stops. (I might do that when my acct reaches say $100k, take $50k of it for longer term trades that just collect the interest, but I will try to buy them right). Until then, I will have stops in place (in my head) and I won’t swear that I won’t occasionally go short if the situation warrents. But 90% of the time you can ride this like a rolling ATM machine that just keeps cranking out the pips. Maybe 3 weeks is not enough of a test, I will keep testing in demo but in the real I have already switched to just being long the Guppy because I like the way the account balance goes up, up, up
Of course now that I am fully a convert to the Church of the Ram-Guppy (has a nice ring to it), I see that our Leader has developed a wandering eye for the NZ-Y … hmmmmm … hope that doesn’t tick her off :eek:
The only problem I can see going forward are the brokers themselves … is there really a broker you could trust with a very large account balance, or maybe better to divide it among several … but then it would be a bore to trade them simultaneously. Oh well, not something I need to worry about yet!
After 70hours account open, i’m up 5.6 % in equity day is not over now
this is in demo, used margin max. 2,15% (leverage 1:400) british japan mixed lady
4xstar can u share the excel file with me please?
5.6% is an excellent return over 3 days. But keep in mind it’s not always going to be this idyllic. 
i except that there will be times where it is not so idillic like now, also i have no refrence high so i have no experience with a loss leader which is far far away from actual price base…
for me i will calculate my MM for the NZDJPY over the weekend, because the range between the high and the following higher Low is round 2400 Pips, at the moment the price hovers between 38% short term and the 61.8% longerterm, it can go up and can go down, but will pay me a lot more interest then the guppy and give me more breath to survive the fights…
if i would placed 1 micro lots every 10 pips i would have placed around 450 $ Margin over the 2400pip run and a Drawdown from 25500 $
in Short term there was there many whipsaws where i could have rebuild equity programs to survive a margin call, so for the future i will not expect that we get again a run like this in 2007, we will see when we reach the top again 
Maybe it holds, but until then i have to capitalize me to get my positions in the down if forming a double top…
Another 3 week period comes to mind: February 28 - March 18. You may have been singing a different tune then. 
Hate to always be the malcontented one, and this method has fared very well since we were talking about support @ 202.60 in the GBP/JPY thread 3 weeks ago, but I wouldn’t want a short-sighted vision of the history of the pair to open someone up to a reversal for which their available margin isn’t prepared that ends up crushing them (not worried about you, 4xStar, but there may be some other poor sap out there…). I’m just spectating, but it seems like someone would want to demo this method through a classic Guppy drop-off before taking it live. With a long-term, “equity-building” approach, those massive drops will come, and one has to know how to somehow desensitize themselves from that psychologically and manage their margin to survive.
I have an idea for a spreadsheet that addresses this:
Data points would be lot size (.01, .1, 1), pip value per lot, quantity of trades, total margin available and margin used (expressed terms of %). This could be used to determine how deep a dive one’s account could withstand at any given time before being placed in a call. Thoughts?
Yeah but I would not ride it down, ever. As I said in my post, I will not do buy & hold unless I had enough funds to put in an account only for that purpose. So I’ll watch key support points, & all the usual suspects and when it is ready to drop again, I stand aside and wait for the pullback to play itself out. Actually this past week was a pretty good test of that because on the 9th she plunged down and then had several significant drops and many (including Jebatfx) kept seeing her in bearish mode. So I kept jumping out & at one point was short in real account, flat in demo account. From Tues on all you had to do was buy every pullback … I did not believe that, kept looking at Jeb’s (ueber-complex) charts … but in demo acct I just went ahead and did it … and now I am up $35k for the week in that acct…
Her weekly R2 is 208.55 and if she had broken that with conviction I’d be out & waiting. At the moment she is bouncing from R1 to R2 weekly, bias towards R2 but no real conviction yet.
Hate to always be the malcontented one, and this method has fared very well since we were talking about support @ 202.60 in the GBP/JPY thread 3 weeks ago, but I wouldn’t want a short-sighted vision of the history of the pair to open someone up to a reversal for which their available margin isn’t prepared that ends up crushing them (not worried about you, 4xStar, but there may be some other poor sap out there…). I’m just spectating, but it seems like someone would want to demo this method through a classic Guppy drop-off before taking it live.
The key is available margin … I was never more than 15% into margin in real account & that is part of the key to the success of this. You will not make money every day or even every week. But the good times should more than make up for the bad, from what I am seeing.
In a classic Guppy drop off, when she breaks key support, stand aside … with margin use under control, the losses should be minimal and I would LOVE a good drop off cause that means lots of lovely pips ahead 
I have an idea for a spreadsheet that addresses this:
Data points would be lot size (.01, .1, 1), pip value per lot, quantity of trades, total margin available and margin used (expressed terms of %). This could be used to determine how deep a dive one’s account could withstand at any given time before being placed in a call. Thoughts?
Maybe next week we can work something up … this could be very useful.
Yes I will tweak it a bit then post it on my website, probably early next week. Will let you know.
Have a great weekend everyone!! 
nice weekend all, i’m switching off now…
Cu Sunday
I still would not be short here, or you may sit in those shorts for a while
at huge daily interest.
Well son of bi. uhm uhm gun.
So I bought another long and expected it to be 200 pips in the hole this morning. Well another 48 pips positive and closed.
She due for a nice drop guys. Be careful.
Right now there is egg in my face. I had to fight kicking and screaming to make my shorts go into profit, and one long that I expected to go under was in profit.
I am not going to pick up any more longs until she gives me some kind of drop. She is due.
I just was cruising through forums and came across JETBATFX’s charts on the GBP/JPY… I’m sure you’ve all seen it and hope it makes more sense to you… looks like a paint store blew up to me! I’ve always heard “you can have too many indicators”. For me, that meant my ADD would kick in if I had anymore than 4 things on the chart at once. He obviously knows his technical stuff… I’m more of a simpleton I guess.
He does have very good technical analysis in his write ups, but… I can’t read that spaghetti on the charts.
I keep a 50ema and 200ema. S/R and trend lines I don’t chart because I can eyeball them pretty well. I used to have two indicators but I fired them after I weaned myself off of them.
So I am naked except my 2 ema’s.
You save on your ac bill that way in the summer. Just turn on a fan and open the windows. The neighbors will get over it in time.
I’ve mentioned Jeb several times in here … I check his charts daily. To me they look a bit like the electrical and sewer plans for the NY subway system… but Elliott wave does have some validity so I check, more to see where he has his next targets. He has been bearish for 2 weeks now & obviously it ain’t happenin’ however I have noticed that his target points are hit more often than not (he has alternate ones for bullish & bearish scenarios). It takes a bit of time to figure out where they are
c? A? 2? LOL
PS. I’m flat going into the weekend, she SO needs a rest!! Nice pips this week once I stopped fighting her & just showed faith.
I have one lot left that is sitting one pip away from it’s TP!! DOH! Pretty close to flat though. Question: In the weird case that Sunday open is ABOVE my TP…does it still sell it at my TP, sell at the open price, or does MT4 not recognize it till it hits my TP?
how many times do I have to post before I quit being a “newbie”?
It supposed to be at best. So if it gaps up, your broker should close at the current offer in your favor.
Don’t hold me to this.
eight more.
I’m working on 500.
There it is.