What I like about Jebat’s charts (which aren’t complicated, just crowded) is that he plots alternate scenarios, opening doors to a varieties of different paths and then closes them as price confirms one; but then there are other doors to open. He forecasts, but doesn’t clearly favor any scenario over others, which makes me wonder whenever I look at his charts what trades he is actually taking.
As for the Guppy: more consolidation, but the range is tightening against 210.65-210.82 on what looks like a ascending triangle on H4 beginning with June 9’s 1200 GMT candle. But, like M2P, I’m hesitant: today’s CPI figure did little to tip USD/JPY’s scale, leaving it the immediate shadow of 4 month old resistance. Both pairs seem poised for further upside, but the picture is a bit complicated and I don’t necessarily see an extended move up on USD/JPY. But, what seems improbable from an econometric angle is entirely plausible in the marketplace, so I remain at an impasse. I am flat the Guppy and USD/JPY (all Yen crosses, actually) going into next week, ready to go long the break north or short the rejection off these levels.
But actually I think I erred before in thinking NJ and GJ went together.
After further study it looks like they more times than not go opposite of each other, which is very strange.
So this is a first time myself for even considering NJ and NU data.
I also expect a bullish reversal for GU here in the works as well,
which should GJ up a few more legs.
All my GJs hit their tps and all I have left is a few NJ longs, which collect better interest, BUT while GJ is screaming NJ sits as if at the beach getting a sun tan, and thats no fun.
Yep, there’s a marketplace for everything isn’t there? Here we have betting on a market driven by speculation - who knows, one could then put bets on those betting about the direction of financial markets: If someone could forecast the direction of the Guppy or how far it would go by a certain time or whatever, you just might put your money on him…
It’s kind of like this random mental event I’d have when I was a kid as I was going to sleep: there would be a group of 3 people, standing around watching a TV, while the footage on the TV was a recording of them standing around watching a TV, which was itself a recording of them standing around watching a TV, and so on until the TVs in each image became smaller and smaller until the people became nothing more than a tiny speck.
While I would be the first to say do NOT keep all your eggs in one basket.
I did receive a profit check from FXSOL (well Ginger did!).
There is nothing wrong with, and in fact I recommend it,
Having multiple accounts with multiple brokers like GInger and I have.
We are one so all our accounts arte all our accounts. I think we only have about 3 live accounts left open: Forex.com MB Trading and FXSOL.
FXSOL is the only one that meets my approval at this time for trading this way. I am still waiting for MB to come up with a user friendly trading platform, and or some sort of charting software that would allow trading from the charts.
FXSOL allows trading from accucharts but I do not trade from a chart, that is not how I learned and I don’t want to change now, But I can see how if implemented it would be time saving and faster.
As far as trusting any broker with piles of money, I would suggest reviewing thier BBB records to find out how many issues they have and have had and how many of therm relate to payment issues.
ANd there is no doubt I will continue to trade NJ, mostly as a hedge against a sinking dollar and inflation. The Kiwi is tied to gold and when gold is strong the kiwi IS. Gold is down now, But I assure you USD will never overtake gold as a store of VALUE.
I originally thought NJ goes with GJ. But my impression now is that somehow GJ and NJ are opposite. SO NJ may allow me effectively to play GJ short and collect interest! IF kiwi goes with gold and GBP does not then GJ and NJ being opposite is makes more sense.
Sounds like a good plan, but before you implement it, review all your “why’s”
and review how you inted on spending, investing or giving away the money to others in need.
I can assure you that the more generous you are with others, the more generous the universe will be to you. Nothing happens without reason.
And thoughts are the things that create our reality.
I often say montior your thought, which can be hard and time consuming,
it is imparative to routinely check your thoughts at least. Men will have a more difficult time with this than women. Women are more closely connected to thier thoughts and emotions than men. Women by nature have a keen insight into many things that many men will never understand. It is clearly a foolish and ignorant man that discount what a woman says without giving her words and thoughts some analysis.
Ginger is my vessel that IS the control valve on what I receive in this world.
It is through her that I am able to draw down massive reserves of wealth from the upper worlds.
As far as brokers you can trust and you cannot I would review Felix’s forex peace army website as he has often hundreds of folks sharing their experience with their brokers. I do not think that any broker will rip you off if they are legit.
YOur spread sheet sounds very exciting. MY uncle is very much into spread sheets and uses them for EVERY pair, and trades EVERY pair based on the data contained in those spread sheets for the different pairs.
SO this is a great and bright Idea that you have.
The system works all the time. What if’s never occur, unless YOU let them!
What you think about you get. What you look at you become.
Not being 100% on this could cause premature failure.
bailing out at some point is NOT possible for me. I cannot ride down and then decide based on some foolish thoughts that I should sell out and lose some money, is foolish.
Greed often gets the best of many folks. When I first stumbled onto this system I considered seriously taking over the world. ( I think I saw too many episodes of “pink and the Brain”) I decided I did not want to take over the world and wasn’t willing to dedicate all my time to that endeavor.
But I knew it was possible. If suddenly I controlled most of the money in the world, I would be like Soloman with cattle on a thousand hills.
She would have been singing the victory song because she would have rode it down to 192.60, wisely managing her margin, then she would see that 192.60 was the BOTTOM. She would have bought some more at the bottom and then RODE GJ UP FOR 3 MONTHS, making COUNTLESS THOUSANDS OF PIPS.
Because I errored does not mean I will again or that someone else will.
On that run down to 192.80, I think I only lost 7K USD. 7K is alot of money perhaps to just give up. But 7K is very small compared to the tens of thousands of pips I have banked since then. Yes I lost THousands on another drop after that where I was grudge trading and took on a bad attitude and traded like a moron. And again since then I have again made tens of thousands of pips.
You must treat this like a business. You have to have some losses. Not all businesses make 1000% profit all the time. But if you added up all the pips I lost and subtraced them from all the pips I made. It WOULD BE CAFE TO SAY THAT I AM STILL UP TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PIPS AND MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 100,000 PIPS.
The point is pips. I am up again countless thousands of pips since I restarted using this live account. Yes I am only playing 10 cents a pip by using 1K lots. But 5000 pips at .10 cents is still $500. Forex is not my only means of support, nor do I think I could make it that because I am just not willing to sit here 24/6 fior the rest of my life looking at some charts and entering orders.
I enjoy trading forex almost as much as I enjoy racing down the road at extreme speeds uner intense acceleration.
It is the summer time now. I have vacations to schedule and kids and crias to deliver. Last year I single handedly delivered a 17 LB baby Cria named AngelEyes, You want to talk about exciting?!? I got it all on video too!
Learning is an exciting adventure for me. If I am not learning, I have a hard time maintaining excitment.
If one were to have begun testing this during the three weeks beginning February 28 (which lines up with 4xStar’s - who is a man, btw - test of the method over the past 3 weeks) they may have been more hesitant because that period involved a 2000 pip drop (that has yet, 3.5 months later, to be completely retraced) rather than an 800 pip increase. That’s it. The “victory song” might’ve started some weeks after March 18, once it became evident that the market was correcting itself substantially. But then, that serves my point: 3 weeks is insufficient to test this method. I’m sure you’d agree.
So you know, I wasn’t think of or targeting your performance during that period. This thread doesn’t extend to that period, and you’ve never discussed that drop in detail (at least to my recollection) here. Some people don’t have deep pockets (which is relative) from which to draw to replenish a blown account, and so there is much less of a margin for error. They have $500, $1000, $5000 with which to begin trading, and that’s it. Blow it and they may be back in 6 mos. or a year, or never. They, and those people who would simply be scared off by a 2000 pip drop (I’m talking legitimate pips, not double/triple/quadruple/quintuple-counted pips accumulated on multiple, simultaneously-run positions: a negative pip at a specific position size is only offset by a positive pip at a specific position size; if you want to make more, you have to augment the position size or quantity of positions) are who I was talking about when I said:
“I wouldn’t want a short-sighted vision of the history of the pair to open someone up to a reversal for which their available margin isn’t prepared that ends up crushing them.”
“It seems like someone would want to demo this method through a classic Guppy drop-off before taking it live. With a long-term, “equity-building” approach, those massive drops will come, and one has to know how to somehow desensitize themselves from that psychologically and manage their margin to survive.”
You’re right - I’ve treated trading (and run my trading) as a business for a number of years now and would agree: that perspective is critical to success.
But, applied here, having losses can be a point of confusion: because if someone is trading the Guppy with the presumption that it will come back, erasing their drawdown, then they can reasonably expect to have a 100% win percentage. In theory, this will happen if one manages their margin correctly and doesn’t let greed, revenge or any other poisonous emotions interfere. As with any system or method, though, not everything goes off flawlessly, usually because of the trader. If by loss here you mean “margin call” (the only “loss” that’s consistent with the theory of this method) that’s different; then you aren’t treating it like a business because for many “margin call” means you’ve just killed your venture, and have to begin all over at square one.
I opened an account at hedgestreet for $100 and never bet anything!
They had bets like that. YOu could be on fed funds rate changes and it was winner take all.
You put up your $100 and bet against another person who piuts thier $100 up and hedgestreet holds it and pays the winner. That is illegal?
It seemed a littel fishy anyways I never used it but also never askeed for or got my $100 back. They were going to send me a free ipod on my first bet but I never found anything I felt sure enough to bet on.
I closed mine out on Friday mid-day. No regrets, though: made some good pips there after the dollar rally hit solid support on most of the major dollar crosses. I figured it’d keep going, but I usually close out going into the weekend rather than rolling over to a 10 pip spread on NZD/USD until 8pm Eastern.
3 weeks is certainly too short of a time to bet the farm on.
And this is not nor was it ever a get rich quick idea. I play as if a 2000 pip drop is always around the corner. I manage my margin in the same way and encourage others to do the same.
And yes I guess sometimes I am counting pips twice if you think of it that way that I am making pips over tyhe eact same movemment over the exact same time because I have multiple lots bought at different prices.
I am currently sitting with 11 NJ’s ONE pip apart, THEY are ALL green.
each one has a different TP and I will count each pip as a pip, even though it is similar and possibly the same as buying multiple lots.
I don’t think I sugar coat this. You can lose easily 80% of your account in one run down if you trade this blindly and nonchalantly and casually or whatever. Even though I enjoy this forex almost as a sport, I am very serious about it and very serious about winning. It is sort of like Chess for me. I really prefer to never lose at chess or forex. Even if wiining gets boring (laugh) because I never learn anymore valuable lessons.
Still there is no reason that after 3 weeks you cannot venture into a live account with a conservative attitude, patience, and smartness and lertness to what the plan is. The worst error is getting TMTH. Once you learn what this feels like you will never forget it.
Yes I have been doing this a long time, and trading even longer, and certainly no new to forex person should think this is a get rich quick thing that is 100% assured. It is NOT. I have failed to maintain 100%. And even if I am 99.5%,
never forget those .5% of loses were in the tens of thousands and those 99.5% wins were also in the tens of thousands. SO when I lose, I lsoe big,
otherwise I steadily win consistant pips day in and day out. The more times I lose on GJ the better I become at trading GJ and the better I learn myself and my trading stytle, emotions, weaknesses and limitations.
Losing right off the bat is not what I want for anyone. But it is likely to happen. BVut each time has made me stronger. And I am not down any money. And YES I hate giving profits back more than I like losing my own money! But I have somewhat learned to get over this by telling me that it wasnt my money I lost only profits, But those were MY profits! I worked long and hard for them.
SO certainly, ANYONE that trades this needs to be careful and not have a false sense of security that this is an easy way to wealth. It takes time and discipline, emotional control and restraint, and sometimes the ability to sit on your hands.
Because many agree letting your losses run and and cutting your profits short doesn’t make sense but that is what most people tend to do.
I hope I have not made this seem easier than it is, especially emotionally.
My system is a long term feasable way to build weath, much like investing in a house and paying the mortgage.
I was fortunate enough to be on the sidelines when the g/j took that horrible drop. So now I place the size and spacing of my lot orders to survive a fall even worse.
With my charts I also try to speculate not to buy tops.
I rather make a little money, than lose all the money.
But I feel this strategy has made Elijah more than it has taken from him, even with the pitfalls. My goal with this strategy is to avoid the pitfalls and try not to experience them at all.
Yep, that’s all I’m getting at. The only caveat to issue is that you don’t know what that 2000 pip drop is going to feel like until it comes, especially if you heavily concentrated your longs “lower” when “low” was hundreds (thousands) of pips away. Those who have been through it, managed their account directly, and recovered can tell you; but to those who haven’t, the temptation to cut losses deep in the red - when in reality they’re closing their trades at or near the bottom - will be there.
And I don’t think you’ve misrepresented this as easy or immediate. Despite what you may say, though, there will be those who have selective comprehension who will horribly mismanage things by overlooking or through “temporary lapses” of memory. That may be why I find myself qualifying highly zealous comments. It’s easy enough to muck things up; but without stops and because of the possibility of large drawdowns, the risk increases dramatically if you don’t manage your account - and yourself - carefully, whether or not you are a novice.
No regrets, though: made some good pips there after the dollar rally hit solid support on most of the major dollar crosses. 
I figured it’d keep going, but I usually close out going into the weekend rather than rolling over to a 10 pip spread on NZD/USD until 8pm Eastern.