It looks like that’s it. We should be headed back up as UJ strengthens into the NY open. GBP has obviously regained some ctrength due to great news.
I expect another leg up. And we could get up into 215’s before week end.
I am buying in the dips, but it may not dip enough for me.
I don’t see 207 in the cards, but I have pending orders down there and up into 209’s. Until I see a break higher or some ST or MT support above 212.50 I am not getting in with a loss leader just yet.
I am just playing it cautiosly.
I am going to remove my last $300 from my account leaving about $700
which is ALL profit one pip at a time at .10 cents a pip.
That is 7000 pips for me.
For now I am buying lower and scaled my orders down 50 pips into 208’s where they get closer and even closer into 207’s, and I still have orders pending down into 204’s.
It would be nice is she dipped and picked up my longs before she heads north for her summer vacation.
I couldnt believe my chart at first I thought it was broken.
It was more like 100 pips in .5 seconds.
I don’t know where I’ll be on the 4th.
I’ll be in DC today, I am burried in service calls and trainging 2 new people so I can work less
216 is on the horizon. I wont make any LT predictions but I would bet
(with real money) that we hit 216 before we hit 206, in any event I am ready,
unless she takes off now and goes up up up as I am flat on GJ and holding some NJ, which doesnt move as much but it is working out excellent and I maintain a 100% profit ratio on ALL my NJ trades.
If anyone needs something give me a buzz
804-852-7043
Yep, retail sales absolutely crushed analyst consensus, so we had a very nice event spike there. I saw that the projection was a bit higher than the previous release but wasn’t about to wake up at 4:30, so I set my stops half-expecting some moderate up-side movement and got stopped out on my trades (two of them) for 35 and 15 pips each. It wasn’t 100 pips in 15 minutes, but I’ll take them. Great job taking out some TPs on the way up.
This all supports the point of why a basically technical trader ought to be aware and capable of interpreting fundamental data and events at all times - if you don’t prep your trades to weather a major release or pull you out in profit, you may wake up to find your analysis negated and your account suffering significant loss.
Anyway: The month-long range between 208.36 and 212.86 (with an outlier as high as 214.04 in there) back in January/February featured three points of intraday testing into the low 213s. Price has moved as high as 212.83 this time around, but is having difficulty with 212.35-212.55. The point being that the 150 pip range above here is littered with resistance. But then, we’ve got 210.67-210.80 beneath acting as firm support. 213 is reasonably obtainable here on another small leg up, but there’s a lot of selling pressure (sell limits waiting to trigger) up there. Even with retail sales printing such a great figure, King’s speech last night was anything but encouraging (though he did say primary focus was on checking inflation, which bolsters speculation about a potential hike at some toward the end of the year/beginning of 2009), so the Pound (and the Guppy) are by no means out of the woods yet.
Like Todd I have just been reading along, absorbing all the amazing information on this thread. I guess I have not had a lot to contribute !!!. I have a loss leader at 212.69 which looks like it is about to close. I noticed a some point thru the thread that a spreadsheet was mentioned and tried it out. I believe that it is invaluable when trading this system as it is now so easy to work out one’s bids. My live acc has more than trebled in value over the last 6 weeks with a boat load of pips banked, I intend to do a count at the end of the month!!!. I am going to try the NZD/JPY method next week. Thanks to all, grader
loss leader in sight 212.79, good week so far, after open start with demo i’m up 14,4% in the moment, also some nzd all in deep profit so interest can come…
DAY TWO LIVE: stayed out yesterday cause it just didn’t seem real exciting and I didn’t want my first trade to be too mentally destructive. Today is going great though! Up 4% already! Hope this keeps up for a long long time!
Hovering around 213 right now. I’m flat, but if we break 213.10, I’m gonna jump back in.
Agree … I am happy for all those who made money but I went to bed flat last night (after a great day of profits) because I did not want to be holding into that kind of news (which Sir Pipsalot said was going to cause some major movement in the pound). So basically it was a news spike and could have gone just as violently the other way … oh wait … or maybe Elijah’s conciousness does not allow for negative news spikes [I]against[/I] our Guppy.
Hmmm … maybe need to re-think strategy for next major news announcement
Anyhow, pips a plenty after the spike as well … she took out the daily 200 ema which was pretty good resistence these last few days, she is above Jeb’s (new) bullish b/o line which is 212.81, she cleared the Weekly R1 and is eyeing the R2 at 213.58.
I like Jeb’s charts (seems like a genuinely good analyst), and agree that the 212.81 is a significant break (212.83 was the high established on June 16, in line with resistance from February).
The question here, which will be answered shortly, is whether the daily candle will close above there. Price moved well into the 213s on a number of days when the Guppy grappled with this level in the winter, but the highest close was 212.77 on 02/26/08 (incidentally, two days before it tanked). The next highest, 212.70 on 01/29/08, 212.32 on 2/14/08. A couple of other days closed in the low 212s between 01/15/08-02/27/08, but the remainder were 211s down to 208s. Based on the past (of limited use sometimes, I know) then, a close above 212.77 (and better still above 213) would be highly significant. I’m waffling on directionality bias - I mean really conflicted - but until I see a floor put in at this level, I remain uncomfortable with upside exposure here.
Attached is the Fib fan Guppy chart I typically post here; this along with Ichimoku and another mixed bag chart make up the battery of technical data I use to trade the pair. This one can be a bit inscrutable at first, but it soon becomes plain that appropriately drawn fib fans give a lot of insight into future S/R for the Guppy (Notice, for example, how price has remained in an ascending channel between the top yellow fan line and the middle red fan line since March). The confluence of the blue and yellow lines at the current price is crucial. If price breaks and holds above blue and then yellow, I don’t think a test of 216.28 is out of the question. But, I’m sidelined, because I still see potential for a significant retracement.
btw, 4xstar - sorry I’ve neglected the IKH thread. Thanks for starting it, though - I know we had talked about opening a thread here, but I hadn’t gotten around to it, though it was rattling around in the back of my mind. I’ve got some plans that’ll take me off-screen for the night coming up, but this weekend would be a perfect time to get a little content up there, and maybe some charts in advance of next week.
Having followed this thread over from the forex factory posts and being demo trading it since around the 203 level at the beginning of May. With 100 % success. Obviously with have had no huge guppy drops since then. I would be very interested in the spreadsheet thats been mentioned.
Could some kind soul attach it to the post or point me in the right direction.
I figured based on the page views from this thread that there were all sorts of folks reading in the shadows. It is nice to here from you grader.
I am expecting some support at 212.60 and I don’t expect to dip below 212 at any rate. I am anticipating some more good GBP and USD news.
Noteworthy is that AGAIN today mortgage rates are UP. While I don’t think of this as good for me, it is good for the value and strength of the dollar.
And dollar strength = GJ strength.
I guess I have to get another loss leader on a dip. I was thinking of taking out my last $300 so I am operating ONLY on 100% profits. I got a check today from fxsol for $300. They are fast. I requested the check monday.
Thats good speed to request it on monday and have a check recieved in the mail on Thursday.
I am not going to point out too many funny things but.
It is from the spring, it went to press before that prolly.
And UBS! HAHAHA! if they say something porbably the opposite is true.
That whole article is so wrong. The carry trade is alive and well.
And I have no doubt that they will continue to carry on up up up.
And I am betting on it with my real money. And I @ over 99% profits still
on all trades. What are they trying to do get us to short GJ LOL!!!
:eek: I just woke up and saw this MAJOR dent in my live account. I’m down 230 pips on a short gpjpy. Should I wait for some retracement or just suck it up and take accept the damage? Can any of you veterans give me some light on this?
You’re SHORT the G-Y?? Read this thread from the beginning & learn why ram is never short and most of the rest of us … only rarely (and in secret… shhhhhh)
As to what to do … no one knows … you need to draw a line in the sand (or on the chart) and decide when & why to bail for better or worse. Check Andrew’s post below for some insight, he mentioned if G-Y closes above 212.77 today it would be very significant. I would not want to be short.
Yeah I thought that article sounded very fishy … and I was thinking the same, it is like listening to CNBC during stock market hours, whatever they are saying … do the opposite
We’ll never ask you to short your guppy, Elijah! blasphemy…
I mean shorting GJ is already a bad thing, but shorting it without a stop loss is insane. There is no news to come out tomrrow to affect GJ really.
I would expect we could dip into 212.60 or even as low as 212.00
Andrew contends the floor could still fall out from under us.
This is nearly impossible at this point.
Some Bear boys go to jail today, that must have been nice to get it over with already, instead of all that anxiety waiting to get arrested.
230 pips?!? Where did you go short from? I don’t see anything to indicate a short being a good idea at any time yesterday. If you were going to go short, you should have been short into 213.20’s when the Doji spiked up on the 12MIN you coudl clearly see she was going to retrace some.
I will be the first one to tell anyone only a fool goes short GJ. If you get caught in a short trade LT waiting to make back 230 pips, they will run youout of money with daily interest charges from rollover.
ONly reason I am OK holding drawn down on some longs is due to positive interest/swap/rollover. But drawndown on some shorts that are a few figures down would have me feeling real angry.
I would suggest setting an order to liqidate them all from 2-5am tomorrow morning EDT after Franfurt open and london open. But depending on how asia does you could be in for more of a beating than 230pips.
Great job taking out some TPs on the way up.
