[B]“So long as there is breath in me, that long I will persist. For now I know one of the greatest principles on success; if I persist long enough I will win.”[/B]
Og Mandino
I shorted at 210.58. Yes, I know. 3k down and diving. I’ll retire now and live to fight another day.
Thanks for the words of wisdom. I guess I’ll keep my eyes on this thread from now on.
This is the type of thing I’m talking about, and why I always feel something poking at me in the back of my mind to post admonishing remarks here.
“I’ll never short this pair again”
Great - a new trader who is resigned to trading this pair long only because of a single mismanaged trade. The real problem here is not direction (though in this case that was ill-advised) but trading without a buy stop to limit risk/loss. No trader, however new, ought to think - or be made to think - shorting a pair (even GBP/JPY) is a categorically bad idea. Show me a reason (other than negative rollover, which is a virtual non-issue for anyone who is a short-term trader) the Guppy should not be shorted when it is exhibiting a downtrend. And yes, the pair has historically exhibited extensive downtrends of significant duration right alongside uptrends. If in doubt, look it up on a chart.
“I will be the first one to tell anyone only a fool goes short GJ.”
Come on, rrram: that’s patently ridiculous - why “a fool”? Please tell me it’s not because they can’t earn positive swap. The Guppy goes down just as easily as up. The smart trader goes where the market goes - the only fool is a perennial long or short who lets legitimate trading opportunities pass them by for no other reason than because they believe trading in a particular direction is summarily inviable, no matter the market context.
“Andrew contends the floor could still fall out from under us.
This is nearly impossible at this point.”
Why is this “nearly impossible”? Decline may be more improbable than further advancement (I’m not suggesting that here, or denying it), but a case has to be built for that. If you have the chance, try to quantify what you mean by “nearly impossible” with supportive detail.
That wasn’t a bad entry on a short. In fact, that price was just below signficant resistance, which can be a very good place to go short. What your trade was lacking was not a good price, but a good reason to go short at that price. Shorts at or just below resistance points are invalidated by a break of that resistance level that is held (which establishes it as support) - this is where the stop may have come in. At any rate, not a bad place to short: having a substantial reason for doing so is what might’ve been missing.
Thanks Andrewunknown. It was the shock of losing 16% of my account in one single trade that made me extra cautious about gbpjpy (more than rrrams’ comments). My entry was based on a reading of the Accelerator Oscillator (red, tinny and almost crossing the 0 line) and stochs (bending down touching the 0 line) on the 18/Jul, just after a full bullish candle on the 17th, plus resistance. I had big winning trades the day before and was dangerously confident. Big mistake.
Anyway, lesson learned. Will need some two weeks of trading to bring my account back up to break even. I hope that this thread will give me some guidance.
there is no news, and slowish trading.
The place to go short is nopt when it hits 0, when it is touching the 0 line is more likely where it is OVERSOLD, and NOT the place to SELL.
Also the very positvie GBP news that morning at 430 was a shocker.
YOu cannot rely soly on a couple indicators. Especially an oscillator.
most oscillators are trailing indicators NOT leading indicators.
I will never go short GJ again and if I did, I would NEVER NEVER got short GJ with NO STOP LOSS order.
Andrews explanation was excellent and if you were short you should have had a tight stop loss order, right above resistance.
You also cannot assume there is going top be a reversal in GJ just because
the day before was very bullish. RSI is probably a better indicator for nailing reversals.
GJ eats resistance like a cracker.
I get a kick out of Jeb over at the G-Y tech thread who has been bearish for 3 weeks now … today he very reluctantly drew an alternate 3-wave up due to the bullish breakout yesterday but he thinks it may be a “bull trap”. His target for next leg up is 213.79.
TradeMonkey … yes you were trading like a monkey but so do we all at times 
The important thing is to learn from each trade, keep a journal if possible. 16% drawdown is an owiee, but not the end of the world, many here i’m sure have done worse, I sure have
Someone told me you need 3 reasons to get in a trade but only one to get out. So when you shorted G-Y, what were the 3 reasons that got you in and which one, when violated, should have gotten you back out?
I didnt get all of that I like a goofball sold out with over 100+ pips at 212 long before 213 hit. Lots of pips this week.
I need more bull traps where I can easily pluck out 100+ pips.
That is not a bull trap! A bull trap to me is more of a fake breakout.
Not a breakout that continues over several hours and includes upward movement of hundreds of pips is not a trap!
Looks like 212.40 may hold, but if not 212.00 should be hard support.
[B]“It is wise to keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final.”[/B]
Roger Babson
1 Like
That is just the typical reply I expected.
“I am not going to point out too many funny things but.
It is from the spring, it went to press before that prolly.”
Isn’t that around the time you and pipsquito blew up your accounts?
“And UBS! HAHAHA! if they say something porbably the opposite is true.”
I’m not sure… a bank which employs 80,000 people, in my humble opinion, is doing something right. Don’t you think?
“That whole article is so wrong. The carry trade is alive and well.”
Care to dispute any of the numbers that the author cites? Or is it just your ‘informed’ opinion of the article? 'That article is so wrong… because I do not like it!". Classic! 
“And I have no doubt that they will continue to carry on up up up.”
Again, care to give some figures? I’m wagering that UBS has a bit more of an informed opinion on the subject than you… But you do have a concrete piece of information, I’ll give you that… the amount you invested… how much is that? $500?
“And I am betting on it with my real money. And I @ over 99% profits still on all trades.”
Good for you! Care to give the figure? 99% of what?
“What are they trying to do get us to short GJ LOL!!!”
Not really… it’s just an article
“I will not short GJ. Sorry I just won’t”
Of course not! It will just go up and up and up and up and up and up and up… You get the idea
As I said before, I follow this thread closely… the reason is that I can see clearly what arrogance can do to people… What’s written here is serving as a source of great wisdom to a lot of people, in very different ways
I apologize if this seems like a cheap shot at someones personality… but I thought I would add my opinion to the subject.
Anyone getting long again from these levels? I am 
Posting an article to elicit an anticipated response so you can then berate the individual(s) responding serves no constructive purpose - it only further proves what you felt you had adequate evidence to know beforehand; otherwise you wouldn’t have posted initially. At best, that’s redundant, and therefore purposeless.
Anyone reading this thread knows I do not trade this method and that I take issue or voice disagreement/divergence of opinion regularly. This kind of thing can be done with respect and with concern for defending and promoting a balanced, rational and wide-open approach to trading this pair.
Petty and condescending remarks are an old, tired thing in forums, so it’s no surprise to see someone (a trader? Or just someone gawking?) finally come along to fulfill the bit role of rude antagonist. Do I disagree with categorical denunciations and counter-claims not corroborated by concrete data? Sure; but the bluster may arise more from lack of knowledge than arrogance. In any case, being rude about it is of no help.
And all of this “what? 500?” pissing contest-type bravado and repetitive solicitation of “the figure” begs the question: from which highly capitalized pedestal do you deign to consort with $500 account holders? And how do you trade? Regale us with wonders…
“The subject”, really, is this method and derivatively the positive carry on Guppy, not the position of an analyst at UBS with which rrram might have a difference of opinion or your subjective notion of the quality of his response to it. If you disagree or find fault with the proponents of this method or the method itself, say why with the intent of educating or furthering mutual understanding.
I have been sitting here most of the afternoon trying to figure out how to respond to ForExed’s post, and I could not come up with a way to do it without blowing my top. Your response is perfect…thank you. You are quite a good writer and I appreciate your words.
This sort of thing on this forum just amazes me. Isn’t it quite obvious what is going on here? I guess not…people like ForExed just don’t get it I guess…
Jeesh.
Hey Elijah…you’re the man. I may not agree with every word ANYONE says but hey…what can I say…they are your words…and I gotta say, they have made me money (how many times do I have to say that my blown account was MY fault??) Also, I think it is clear that some people just don’t understand what you are doing with your “talk.” I think I do…I hope I do…and I think most of the other regulars here do as well. Keep it coming…from you, and from everyone that is navigating through this in a free flowing manner…keep your eye on the sparrow.
I will dignify Andrews response as absolutely commendable.
When I tried to give Andrew another thumbs up it politely told me I had to spread some reputation around to others before giving points to Andrew again.
At first I didn’t really like Andrew, and was thinking it was good when he left us. Then I suddenly realized I was very sad, he left us. I was overjoyed when he returned.
I have been thinking alot about Andrew and his posts the last week.
I have come to admire and respect him. I appreciate the lessons he is politely teaching me, not just about GJ.
He is sensitive (much more than I), kind, considerate and always seems to take the time to help those newbies in need by explaining basic concepts
in a patient and very easy to understand way.
Isn’t life funny? I started out dislikeing Andrew but now I hold him high on a pedastal and admire his attributes, which I have previously pointed out.
So I have identified those excellent attributes in Andrew and have set a goal to be more like him in those areas.
I am so very thankful to have Andrews participation here, And I have a great deal to learn from his example. He demonstrates numerous fiine qualities and he leads by example.
In case I missed any attributes. I see him (andrew) as kind, considerate, pateint, generous (especailly in the sharing of his heart which is invaluable to me at least), and even merciful! You say how did he have mercy?
He had mercy on forexed and treated him with human dignity despite his
inconsideration. Andrew is obviously an excellent communicator through his writing and I am certain Andrew could have (done the wrong thing)
and ripped forexed a new one and made an utter fool out of him,
BUT instead he still treated him with human dignity, INSTEAD of responding to some pathetic speech with more of the same.
My hat is off to Andrew and I am now even more thankful to have him with us as a contributor to our thread.
[B]“Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.”[/B]
Japanese Proverb
Thank you, Elijah and Todd - I am humbled by your comments and am glad to be a positive, helpful contributor, however modest those contributions are. And to Elijah: we don’t always see eye-to-eye, sure, but we treat one another with dignity and have the same goal: learning from and helping others.
ForEXed does make one good point: “What’s written here is serving as a source of great wisdom to a lot of people, in very different ways”.
There’s a wide variance in knowledge and experience in this thread and in this forum. Be that as it may, we all have a great deal to learn: a novice learns how to simply recognize a trend, while for someone more experienced there may be little of an intellectual or technical basis to learn from others, but instead learns humility (the single most important psychological attribute for any trader, and most difficult to attain).
There is always something to learn, even if it is only why you hate what someone else posted - even that reveals something about your own psychological makeup, and can be turned toward some benefit if you choose.
That may sound silly or a little too proverbial, but the point here is to refine ideas about how to effectively trade this pair, correct mistaken assumptions, challenge statements that aren’t helpful or are dangerous and foster some growth.
There’s always room for disparity of viewpoints and opinions; but pointless negativity should receive zero tolerance.
This is not the best thread on here for a noob to stumble into (trading in a single direction without stops is not for the faint of heart, whatever it’s merits or flaws); but once they’re here - hopefully they’ve read Elijah’s first few posts to understand just what they are getting into - the goal ought to be one of constant work toward applying the raw material Elijah has posted about this method as safely and profitably as possible. This strategy can result in some great success; if and when a downturn comes, we’ll see how many made hay while the sun was shining and learned well enough to ride out the inevitable drop.
Which brings up a very good point: the sun is shining! You guys have a good weekend - I’ll be over at the Ichimoku thread later on tonight to kick up some dust kumos (clouds), but otherwise will be spending today and tomorrow out-of-doors.
Allowed me to get quite a few lots on the dip. THe low at about 3PM FRI
around 211.80 should hold as future support.
WE HAVE 7:01pm GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
this could make price move despite its normally not very motivating responses. But at times I have seen this report violently make price move.
I withdrew another $300 so my account balance is now 100% profits.
I am maxxed out at 4.99% margin.
I am holding only kiwi now to build my account balance ($692.67).
MY point is the principles at work here apply no matter what the amount risked, it does NOT matter if I am using $1 a pip, or $100 a pip, or as in this case .10 cents a pip (1K lots).
I am doing so many service calls lately that I really am not comfortable leaving my live account open unattended while I am gone for coutless hours.
That contributed to my previous fall on 3/17. AT least not at $1 a pip.
But now I have built my account from $40 and added incrementally
another $300, another $300, and a $260 to make $900 total. I have now withdrawn $900 so the $692.67 remaining is all profits, the HARD way at $0.10a pip. so that is about 7000 pips profit. So now there is no reason someone cannot start this from $300 or $900 over 1 month taking the $900 back out
over the next month and leaving about $700 in your account (all profit)
and starting over. SO this has proved the point that it can be done.
FXSOL is impressive in thier processing of withdrawl checks. I requested this last one friday. I expect to get the check by Wednesday based on thier previous prompt check processing and delivery.
Friday I wasn’t here much at all and it looks like I made 2 pips at 10 cents each (laugh). But I guess that’s better than losing some.
I am waiting for the market to open. I expect to buy more long if it dips lower. I am going to be collecting daily interest and doubling my used margin every 21 days.
With this low account balance I am going to stick with NJ for a cycle to build interest quicker and it is 1/2 as much and pays twice the interest.
It moves slower has a thinner range and follws GJ to the T pretty much.
I also think the Kiwi is currently stronger than the pound against yen,
and doesn’t have any where near as much of an ability to sink like an anchor in 1000 pip deep lake.
I do not see a fall in the future. And by now I hope Todd has made a few pips back. From here I think we pretty much have to go up.
Obama is building strength and is almost has his shoe in the white house.
Obama will be good for the dollar. It is only a matter of time before those 251 levels are regained. As to where Obama is going to get the money I don’t know. But I also don’t know where he is getting the 300 Million of private donated funds for his presidential campaign.
[B]“All I ask is the chance to prove that money can’t make me happy.”[/B]
Spike Milligan
This is a funny one!
The truth is that money solves almost all problems, but it does however create NEW problems which are much more complicated than your old problems.
The LOVE of money is the root of all evil. There is the same light of the creator in the penny as there is in the billion dollars, if you don’t respect the penny you will never get the billion dollars. It’s the pips. Each pip has to be significant and important. You cannot disregard pips it is piles of pips made which brings good feelings. Focus on the pips and the piles of pips will surely come. Use your pile of pips wisely so more piles of pips follow almost automatically. Pips attract pips.
Pips are herd animals, they like to stay together. If you pluck them and value each one eventually they ALL will come with you.
This is the 61.8% Fib which I just screwed up and can’t fix now. But it is up to 251 up from some old low.
The daily sure looks to be topped out. But with GJ you never know.
She could soar quckly up to 214.60 and if she breaks that look for another several hundred pips up.
A correction sure looks to be in order, but I don’t see any reason why she can’t just keep pushing towards 214.60 for the big battle. 214.50 will be a battle as well.