Turns out my typical analysis was correct for overnight, but the divergence that jumped out at me still hasn’t been invalidated, which is why I remain in this long (still haven’t yet scaled in a second half). Noticed a nice pin bar/candle on the 0300 ET candle which would’ve been a great day trade for 100 pips or so.
Also, both 0100 and 500 ET candles failed to make a lower low. Immediate resistance above lies @ 211.10 and then 211.65; support below at 210.60-70. There’s clearly a descending trendline (which corresponds exactly with a 23.6% fib fan line from 213.80 to 209.45) @ 211.20 to break and hold, something done last night (failed breakout on pin bar/candle) but then reversed.
But then there are the aforementioned reasons to remain bearish, especially given the 3H/4H IKH picture. The 1D remains bullish, however, cutting out the noise overnight to simply show Chikou span support over the last three days @ 210.67.
I’m conflicted on direction here, as you can see - which is a good time to sit on your hands, to paraphrase Jesse Livermore. Since I’m already in, though, I’ll let this long play out.
In the past 36 hours in my real money (micro) acct I have lost & made back the same $125 at least twice!
I guess that is better than being down, but in retrospect it was so clear how to play her. Part of the learning curve I guess, & I am getting better the last transition from short to long around 7:30 am went as smooth as glass.
Part of the problem is wanting to hold positions for “the big run” either up to the 213’s or down to the 209’s … she just wants to play for awhile. I still think a major down move is coming, the question is will there be another test of the mid 211’s first?
All this talk of divergence … where’s the divergence, what indicators & timeframe are you looking at?
I’ve never been much good at divergences … I mostly just watch the candlesticks with some bb’s and an MT4 indicator I have called “juice” which shows buy/sell pressure.
Well, it went smooth, problem is it was not the right decision to go long again & that should have been clear 15’ later. Now it has dropped to 210.04 and should either hold here and reverse, or if not it could have some more serious downside.
Well that was a nice run up you should have been selling all the way up and I’d say avoiding shorts too cut down on chaos and confusion is in order.
And you need to focus on one thing…UP or DOWN I dont think you are at the level yet where you can play it both ways.
I should have told you I was expecting very positive ISM numbers based on previous ISM news. I tell you things are looking up for the USD and that will continue to carry GJ up. Gold seems to have surged up. My dad said gold is following the oil.
And things are now all about the oil. FEDS are likely to ignore inflation for several more months so it could be tough trading until rates start to increase.
Just updating my progress. Last week was slow for me as I mistimed a short and settled for a 300 loss when if I had held for another 24 hours I could have made a 500 profit. I see what you are saying about shorting as the interest for those few days can hurt you.
This week things are already doing well. No more shorts!! I have already banked about $500, especially with the large surge we just had about an hour ago. I loaded up on the dip and trail stopped all the way up to 5o and 75 pip gains.
So my total since starting on 6/11 is $2300. I am going to continue demoing for another month and gaining experience with all of this, especially chart reading.
Thanks for the thread.
In my demo acct it is so easy to do, buy the dips, sell a few after 20-30-50 pips & let the rest ride … when the top loss leaders are hit, cash out everything and start over. I am making money in there almost too fast to count it.
But for some reason I cannot duplicate that in my real acct (micro), I keep trying to hold on too long, instead of using the “rolling profit” system that is working so well in demo.
I also tried NZD/JPY back when everybody started talking about it. Luckily this is a demo account as I still have four positions open. This drawdown would really effect a real account, but with my demo I am not as worried about the margin because I am just trying out this system. My margin is still less than 7%, but this would be around 4% without NZD/JPY. But as rrram2 says at least I’m collecting some interest.
Hope to see the Guppy continue swimming in this choppy water (nice for scalping pips) before a nice run up.
