Hey guys been lurking here for 2ish weeks. Read pretty much all of the previous posts (thanks for all the education rrram and 4xstar and andrew and etc.).
A general question, what is GBP/JPY waiting for? Seems like it is undecided as a major overall trend…So what are traders/investors waiting to see from the pair…if anything.
First of all there is the summer doldrums which affect any market when traders go away, chief dealers go away and only have junior level traders on the desks.
Having said that. UK economy is on a definite downturn. The old lady needs to lower rates immediately to soften the blow but they won’t since UK interest rates have historically always been high since “The average UK consumer would go on a wild borrowing spree” if rates were lower. (A belief of both major UK political parties)
BOJ has already stated that they don’t want the Bill & Ben to appreciate against other major currencies. They have said they will take action to sell if they fear its getting too strong. They also said they would intervene in Euro/Yen and not USD/JPY because they think their intervention in that market would be more efficient.
It’s only sabre rattling at this stage but there is nothing “good” to drive either currency at the moment thats why I think its just meandering. IMHO.
T.
gee it is getting hard to decide where the best place is to go with this pair at the moment. Sitting on a fence maybe the best for the time being. 211.70 seems to be the mean, and 212.10 up and 211.30 down seem to be the extremes…and i getting nervous if they start getting close to those points cause if they can bust through there then the game might be on again…would be good if it could break either way, bit boring in this range for time being
what do you reckon, hows my anlysis, pretty simple but…well thats all i got!
so when do the chiefs get back from holidays…
Probably right through August. Even if the European and US Traders come back in August, the Japanese have the O-Bon Holiday season which will leave their trading rooms depleted. Looking about 5 - 6 weeks for any action unless someone does something stupid like saying the US economy is recovering 
I’m going to bed. I am not going to stay up to trade this horse poo.
Someone wake me up if we get some trades.
Good night.
When I first came to Japan at the end of 1986, Sterling was 300 yen and the bubble was still building up to its crescendo, Tokyo was just about the most expensive city on the planet.
After the bubble burst around 90 - 91, Japan continued a vigorous program of renewal of infrastructure, road, rail and telecommunications. It now boasts a fully modernized 21st century infrastructure set to compete again in the world as a global force. Japan has had fibre to the home for 8 years or more, while the UK is still procrastinating reasons why they should delay and that the UK economy does not need it. At the same time trying to wring the last nickel and dime out of aging green corroded BT copper wires.
Most mature economies don’t even invest in infrastructure when their economies are up, let alone down. The UK has not had a refresh of infrastructure since the Victorian times. They still keep saying how nice the Victorian buildings are and should be preserved. Japan will be able to compete with China and India in the next few years. I think there is no hope for the North Atlantic Peso [I]A.K.A. Sterling[/I]
Agreed - the drivers aren’t there, both human or fundamental, which is typical of the summer (and a few other, more brief spots in the year) and why the market seems stagnated. Therefore there’s a lack of momentum to precipitate the kind of deep trending that is almost expected. Recognizing this and adaptation to it is important. 
ZZzzzzzzzzzzz…
surely ceuro there is nothing sounder than the pound, sure there infrastructure is old but it is not ****e, but london is a nerve centre more than tokyo will ever be…
their infrastructure is not too bad considering how long the country has been a power. it will always be number 2 but will will have more importance, resilence and understanding than number one. i think tokyo is given too much kuedos for the little island it is. it doesn’t have the might and power to compete with many nations. it is clean and tidy and modern…and you think uk needs to and will have to compete with india…india has a few other things needed fixing before they can even get onto upgrading their copper cables…
there is nothing sounder than the pound
Ummm … I am not so sure, that is like saying the US will ALWAYS be the world’s #1 super power. Maybe … but we will need to work at it a lot harder than we’ve been doing lately. Same for the UK and Europe … riddled with the same sort of problems we have in the US, in the meantime the Asians are working their little tails off (like the Americans used to…) and are busy transforming their economies and our world.
I lived in Japan for 8 months in 2005-06 and prior to that I had lived in Europe (UK and Italy mostly) for many years. Going to Europe always felt like going into the past … but in Japan I felt like I was in the future, it is an amazing place.
My daughter just returned from several weeks in China, she had the same impressions, a country exploding with people working, building, producing.
The writing may be on the wall … I hope not … I speak several languages but Chinese and Japanese are nearly impossible to learn so I hope I won’t have to :D:D
In any case, fundies are interesting, but price action should rule and opinions need to be checked in at the door when you enter into Forexland
Thanks to the uneducated speculation and guesswork about economic matters Thatcher, (as well as Reagan) decided they would isolate inflation as the bogeyman to be stamped out at all cost. What they didn’t realize was that in this corrupt version of the capitalist system every economy needs a cycle of inflation. However, they decided to thrash out inflation and the consequence is what we are seeing now bursting out in other areas. Commodity inflation, Food price inflation etc.
That wonderful old bat Thatcher also sold our industries for a pound telling the Unions and the public that if you cannot be profitable and create goods at a price compared with other nations you will be closed down. (Cannot remember the speech exactly word for word but it was at the time the silly old bat closed down British Layland and sold the assets for a pound)
So now we have a middle man society, that creates nothing and pays twice as much in real terms for everything since the USD/GBP real exchange rate is parity.
A car that costs USD 50,000 cost the UK punter NAP:50,000 (North Atlantic Peso)
A a family house in US would cost USD 400,000 the UK punter has to pay NAP 400,000 for a worn out old semi that was thrown up in the 1940’s that should have been torn down in the 1960’s.
I wont bore everyone with more examples but its the same with almost any finished good. When a former first world nation falls from grace like UK it doesn’t stop on the way down to 2nd or 3rd world. It goes straight to being a 4th world nation dreaming of former glory. That is what is happening now.
While the capitalists controlling the government continue their insatiable desire for profit. More growth and greater GDP isn’t always a good thing.
No you are wrong UK is a backwater. Bring it on !!!
P.S. All our current economists and bankers were all brought up and taught on the Thatcher Reagan years. What a couple of confidence tricksters. They have got a lot to answer for.
I have to laugh … just read Jeb’s latest commentary on the G-Y, it looks like he has given up trying to figure out what she will do next as she has been doing her little schizoid dance in this trading range for weeks…
Basically his latest comment seems to be saying: [I]" I don’t know what the hell she will do next, figure it out yourself! "[/I] (using BSTS of course :D)
North American Peso … I love it!
If she changes to NAP/JPY do we refer to her as the “nappy”??
(ya gotta speak British to understand that one…lol)
Thats Brilliant! Or how about the Crappy Nappy LOL:D:D:D
commodity inflation and food price inflation is nothing new, it was definitely around before i was born and probably was around before you were born too. As for thatcher, who was he, was she ronalds secretary or chruchills mistress, surely hitler is to blame…perhaps roseveldt,…travel the world and you will see japan for the little island it is…as for the japanese…well they are polite…arent they?
working hard…i know many people who work hard…
you can buy a modern two bedroom town house in london for 250,000 pound…well i did… when you travel the world make sure you got pound in your wallet…when the world is in crisis be sure your sitting on the side iff the west and the brits…the usa is falling from grace but the uk will remain…they have and always will be the epicentre…old and moldy, that is what they are…but where they are and where they remain is at the top as they have for the last 500 years…just like the guppy, the liitle japanese trying to drive the grand old lady down…only to be laughed at and stampled on by the charging sterling bulls
go the pound up up up!
fib fan support @ 210.25. Top-down TS/KS cross in the kumo with price slicing right through (SS-B @ 210.94.
Nice time to be short, even if it meant waiting a couple of days.
And just when I thought the mad ravings were all tapped out. This is about dispassionate analysis of economic fundamentals, not patriotism. Both nations have economic blemishes as well as triumphs on their record over the last hundred years. Our business is to exploit weakness and take advantage of strength in both.
great time to buy a few…