Wow … for a pair that ignores technicals and is driven by price alone (and her own free will), that is one complicated chart! Do you use all those indicators to decide what she wants to do next? If so, it would be cool if you could tell us your thought processes as she was going down and what made you so sure she would be coming back up… in other words, what did you know and when did you know it ? 
And which of your indicators were most helpful in determining that.
On the spreadsheet you can change the numbers with the blue column headings. So down where it says Trading Full Lots, find the row with 200 as leverage and under acct size put 100000 for $100k. in col #3 put
50000 which is .5 lot ($50k).
In col. E you can put in any number for max positions that you want to have, say 30. When you do this you will see that you are at 7.5% margin usage.
Now in pip dd column (H) you can put in the # of pips you could sustain being down and still be OK with margin (col K).
However … in doing this just now, I think there is still a problem with the formulas. I will try to correct it and re-upload. I probably will need the expertise of some more advanced Excel people, not sure if it was trav or grader or someone else who said they knew Excel.
Anyhow, this will give you a ballpark idea, you can play with the numbers for now and get an idea how it works.
I just uploaded a corrected spreadsheet, but I am still not sure it is 100% accurate until one of the Excel experts can look it over.
Location is traderstar dot com/TradeCalc.xls
pips, you will see in second to last line, I put in your parameters of $100k and .5 lots … if you change values in the position size and dd columns you will see how many positions you can have at what dd & still be safe with margin.
Basically it is to show for example if you say you want to allow for a 2000 pip drawdown, it will tell you the max # of positions you can have according to your account size and position size.
Man, that Elijah sure knows his guppy…
212.00 is a good place to get a loss leader
but from here you may be chasing her…wait for her to retreat agin she should hit 212.00 + or - 10 pips several TIMES.Set up a troll on this bridge for sure!
She is dancing right around there, in demo acct I keep scalping everytime she hits the 211.90 or below…
Elijah could hire himself out to some multi billion $ hedge fund as a “guppy reader”. Take 10% of all profits… :D:D
first one 212.00 next one here at 211.65
didnt check the news yet but my new account didnt get set up yet.
so I am waiting.
OK well a few more winks is in order for me!
Found another glitch in the spreadsheet so if you downloaded it in the past hour, you need to do it again 
I will need our experts to take a good look at it, but I think, once perfected it will be a really useful tool
traderstar dot com/excel-link.htm
It may be a good time to sell those. Sorry I missed it but I need to separate my GJ and NJ trades ads there are far too many lots being bought and sold and held and they mix up.
She follows those levels and often hits them to the pip. My uncle taugh me fibonocci, but that really isnt a complicated chart I posted that was the basic one with minimul things on it. Sometimes I trade naked with just fibs, but that is foolish as fibs just say where not when.
As far as indicators there is only fast stochastics, cci (wave type), macd forest and rsi thats it. Often I see divergences on these inidcators as I compare and contrast them.
Above is only PSAR, bollinger bands, keltner channel, and an even bigger envelope set to 34, BUt I think it is more the theory of my dads I visualize
which he showed me saying that up and downs need to cancel out, sort of lie an eellioot wave with the drawing, he does it in his mind too and it is similar in theory to ellioot waves but on a much smaller scale close to current price.
This range 211.50 to 213.50 may hold as rangebound for a bit I havent analyzed further.
But recall what I said earlir in the week? after she fell to 208? BEFORE week end predictions, I dont but I think she hit it.
I hope to get my accoutn set up today as I expect lots of easy scalpign today in that 200 point range.
I have 3 calls today, one in Dc i think, I been turning calls away as I can only do so many.
That’s all I was saying. If you have 10% in margin at 100:1, you won’t have as many lots bought as if you have 10% in margin at 400:1. The key in that being the SAME percentage of margin. (Takes more lots to equal 10% margin at 400:1) I think we’re saying the same thing… just looking at it from different directions. 
Just noticed something… at the bottom of my MT4 that has been brought up before. It says “Margin level: 1213%” or some other crazy high number. ROUGHLY…this is how many pip drawdown you can get for anybody else that has this number. Not REAL accurate but it’s somewhat close for a quick-glance-swag.
i like that, iwas wondering what that real high percentage number meant in metatrader…so you reckon it is how many more pips down you can handle
i think. I didn’t do any extensive figuring but where it’s sittin right now, my huge margin number is within 25 pips of my max drawdown. You’d have to check it for multiple levels to be sure. It’ll work till we get 4xstar’s spreadsheet perfect.
Yeah mine says the same thing … it made no sense at all … you mean that is roughly equivalent to pip drawdown? So 1213% means you can be down about 1000 pips & still be ok?
Have you downloaded my excel spreadsheet … it is still not rright, but it is close … I find it very useful as you can put in acct size, leverage and then a max pip loss value, like 1500 … and it will tell you the max lots you can have open. Or vice versa. But I need more experienced people to check it over, I think one of the formulas may still be off.
My demo acct is now $897k. If it gets to $1 mill next week, that will be a double in 7 weeks.
yeah, it’s pretty close to your max drawdown. I started looking at your worksheet last night. I’m meeting a buddy of mine tonight that’s one of those crazy master programmers. MT4 has a DDE that I’m planning on using and he’s working on making a macro for excel that will use a csv file to load everything. The tricky part is finding a way to use the DDE to make the csv file from MT4.
I’m no computer guy and it took me about 2 hrs last night to learn all that. So the basic jist of it is…
It’ll be a live sheet that changes according to price. Hopefully we can get it to pick up how many orders you have, profit/loss on those orders, how much drawdown (pips you can go down), and then i’ll try to create a hypothetical of how many lots you can buy at current price and drawdown at that. Over time, I could probably do a hypothetical of “if i buy this many lots spaced so and so far apart, how far could i go down before it busts”. Baby steps though.
Yes, the one I have done is very basic, it is just to determine in a ballpark sort of way what is the max lots you should own for your acct size if you allow for an “x” drawdown. Better than throwing darts
61.8% fibret serving as support @ 212.83, while a close on the 0900 ET candle below there (or 212.71 to encompass two candles) sets up a bearish engulfing pattern. 50% fibret (211.56-213.63) is just below @ 212.59.
Which timeframe Andrew?
What I see on the 3 hour is a reverse head & shoulders forming … is she getting ready to run again??? If so, I would not expect it before end today, but maybe this is setting up for next week.
The call for a bearish engulfing was on the 1H, but it didn’t confirm on the 1000 candle. Charts become far less intuitive on Fridays, which elicits the perennial question: why do I trade on Fridays?
Where do you see an inverse H&S on the 3H? We had a good example on the 3H on 07/15-07/17 that broke around 210.40 on 07/17’s 0300 ET candle.
Starting with the candle 8 candles ago, I am looking on Accu charts and they do not give you the time when you hold mouse on candle … or i can’t figure out how to do it yet so cannot give exact time. It is a a brief one, but it is there. Also most jpy pairs are setting up with inverse h&s on various timeframes, mostly 1 hour.