… I just managed to grab the edge of her skirt as she swept by … so I am aboard … just barely … will be letting go soon 
Hi,
Ive been a long time lurker on this thread. I love the concept and have applied it to my Demo account with pretty good results. I was just wondering what the general consensus is with the BOE releasing their minutes tommorow and how it might affect the guppy? How does one factor in fundamentals or does one just play it for the long term knowing the guppy will almost always go up.
PS: thanks to all those who have contributed to this thread, hopefully i may be able to contribute something in the futureof this thread.
She is heading to Alaska to grab some fresh salmon to feed the bears…they will be hungry when she gets there
All aboard…
It seems the ascending triangle worked out - patience pays.
This’ll be of importance; also a good idea to at least scan the minutes themselves…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee opted by a vote of 7-1-1 to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.00 percent at its meeting on July 10, with the dissenters split between one call for lower rates and one for higher rates.
As expected, arch-dove David Blanchflower continued to vote for a quarter point rate cut, but the surprise came from a vote by Tim Besley to raise rates by the same amount, the minutes to the meeting revealed.
The vote illustrates the current dilemma facing the central bank’s rate setters, with annual CPI inflation having spiked to 3.8 percent in June, way above the BoE’s target of 2.00 percent, while the economy shows signs of slowing sharply.
Besley felt that an immediate rate hike was needed to keep medium-term inflation expectations anchored. He also felt such a move would maintain the Bank’s credibility in light of the “current and prospective increase in CPI inflation”.
Blanchflower, however, highlighted the recent gloomy data on economic activity, believing that inflation expectations remain contained and that domestically generated inflation remained low. As a result, there was “little or not likelihood of a rise in wage growth”.
The majority on the committee, however, were concerned that a rate change this month would come as a surprise to markets at a time when “credit and other financial markets remained fragile”. Any changes would be better communicated alongside the Bank’s next inflation report in August, they felt.
Considering the economic slowdown, keeping rates at 5.00 percent was arguably already sending a strong signal of the MPC’s commitment to reducing inflation, the majority felt.
For all members on the MPC, the decision was a difficult one. There was a range of views about the weights to place on different arguments.
All members agreed, however, that the path of inflation in the near term would be higher and the slowdown in economic activity more pronounced than predicted in the May inflation report.
Most members concluded that the balance of risks to inflation in the medium term had moved further to the upside.
The Committee identified two major risks to the May forecasts that inflation would rise to a little below 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 before falling back to the target. On the one hand, there was a risk that rising CPI inflation would lift medium-term inflation expectations and lead to a “more prolonged period of above-target inflation”.
On the other hand, however, there was a risk that weaker incomes and tighter credit would lead to a sharper and more prolonged slowdown in the economy that would pull inflation below target further out.
So you base a lot of your decisions on patterns, it seems and you also always seem to be on the right side of a trade … I’d love to have you give some lessons on these patterns.
It seems IKH daily continues to be bullish long term, but that does not help much with the intra-week swings & lots of pips to be made from those.
Are you planning to short into this upswing at any point … what would you look for? or do you just plan to buy the dips? Or is it too soon to tell?
If I give the impression I’m always on the right side, let me disabuse you of that idea right now!
Candlestick, chart patterns and line studies (from simple trendlines to fibonacci) just about sum up the technical tools discretionary price action trader use. From these there are good setups and then there are near-perfect setups, which usually occur where there’s [I]collinearity[/I] between different tools: e.g., a candlestick pattern occurring at the terminus of a pattern at a key fib level, all pointing to the same thing with very high probability.
Each of these in themselves are helpful and can produce good trades if they are then managed well, but the justification for entering can be frustratingly subjective (e.g. “why did you expect the reversal at the 50% fib retracement, and not 61.8, or 76.8% where more reversals occur?” statistically). The more that aligns, the more one can rest assured their entries and exits aren’t ultimately arbitrary but have analytical grounding. I take the good, better, and best, but manage those trades differently from position sizing forward.
Momentum breakouts, such as this one where price ratcheted to a fine point as part of a pattern just before heavy volume came in to fulfill it, can enjoy very high reward:risk ratios. We could definitely talk about patterns - in the context of this method covered on this thread, they would be helpful for determine where to concentrate buys, or “buy behind” price, as grader does.
The last swing low (cf. 0400 07/21 1H candle) to last swing high (213.86, give or take a couple pips) has a 161.8% fib level @ 214.88, which is about where I took 1/2 off of the current long. Price is struggling in the vicinity of 215 not only because of the round number, but because of the fib as well - in fact, looking at the 15M it’s only with the 0545 candle that the 214.88 was really broken - a good sign. Above there, 215.15 and 215.47 are lines to watch for before 216-216.20. For now, I’m just managing the trade, and will will watch for turn over at former resistance levels and for reversal or continuation patterns that emerge.
Wow. Still rubbing my eyes. She went up so fast overnight I lost my internet connection :).
Needless to say I missed that, but sure was expecting an explosion up. It also doesnt make sense. Where did 215 come from>? UJ isnt so high GU isnt so high. something doesnt compute.
And wow that GC is getting ready to fall or what?
Where it looks like a 100% sure thing she is going down and not only doesnt she go down but she goes up with mad haste.
I really need to figure out or get another accoutn where I can use trailing stops on the way up to maximize moves like this.
Oh well. I am loaded up with service calls today. ANd turned one down today for Silver Spring MD.
Glad to hear you say that … I was thinking the exact same thing. G-C looks as toppy as can be, G-U is weak, U-J is not moving much, but G-Y is like a rocket … where does that come from?? The only thing I can figure is maybe 80 million Japanese housewives have decided to jump back in the carry trade??
I think there is a way to do trailing stops in FX Sol, I will check on it & let you know.
she keeps getting higher and higher…testing 215.50 now…i keep jumping off and waiting for her to come back and get me…should just stay on…all this up up cant go on forever…can it…hard to get the orders in with this upward momentum
She has the weekly R1 at 215.37 and the monthly R1 at 215.47, which is right where she is now. I don’t know if she pays any attention to details such as these, but … they are both here.
Agree, I got out earlier, got back in and scalped for 15 pips … but this is crazy with no real resting or pullbacks …
Jeb over at the TA thread has 215.13 as upper wave target, she blew right through that. His next wave target is 216.15 … can she make it without any rest?? And what is driving her … I see the pound is picking up across the board now … but I still have no idea what is behind it.
Yeah seeing that she is up big pips everywhere…was it something in those minutes they were talking about…or is the sun just shinning today in the uk
i kind of want it to go back down south…seems i am missing out on all this action…just grabbing on and letting go…all the pip spread to the dealer,…\wish i could get a bus load of orders filled…dont know what to do.:eek:
This is a technical break, and there have been congestion points, @ 214.88 (161.8% fib) and 215.15 (former resistance from the beginning of the year). Now we’re at another congestion point @ ~215.45 (215.47 was mentioned earlier) - yet another resistance stop-over on the way down 6 months ago. Glancing at the calendar, you can see the BoE minutes are the only release that could have effected this, but the contents of the minutes belie that explanation.
Remember your history. Not specific levels, necessarily - don’t use historic data to predict tops and bottoms; but look at what directional momentum can do to this pair: hundreds of pips are nothing within a relatively short period of time. For anyone newer to this pair, the relative inertia through June and the first half of July is atypical - this is the Guppy!
Know the pair: don’t assume 200 pips in 3 hours can’t turn into 300 in 3.5 hours - the pair can [I]always[/I] continue going up, or down, defying your expectations of where it should hesitate or pullback. Have a look back at the ATR over the last year: you’ll see that these past several weeks comprise the lowest volatility the Guppy has experienced in the last year! Fortunately for those who aren’t really conducting any analysis of the pair, this time the move favored long positions.
Hey 4xstar,
I got a lot of ideas from your spreadsheet! I tweaked it a bit for my tastes. I’ll email it to you when I get home tonight to see what you think. You can change the leverage, lot size, spacing, acct size, and where your loss leader starts. I used the DDE in Metatrader so the price automatically updates constantly and gives you a live position. Hopefully it’ll contribute some. 
Wow … sounds awesome, can’t wait to see it
You can do trailing stops in FX Sol … just open the little dialog box where you can input limit and stop loss … check the box for stop loss, then at the right there is a place to check the box for Trailing Stop and below that a dropdown with choices of how much … 10, 20, 30 pips etc.
Wuz up!
I will not start calling the guppy “The Hillary”. Because she doesn’t know when to quit.