Just posted this in the G-Y Equity Building thread. For new readers here, the background is, testing Rrram’s strategy**(see end of post) from that thread (a modified version) I doubled a $500k demo account to over $1million. Here are some further comments:
In demo mode, the trick is to always buy in groups of 3-5, take profits on all but one at (in my case) +20, +30, +40, +50 and let the last one run. Sometimes I take profits at +5 if price action seems stalled. I do not have a set interval to buy, I just watch for what look like good dips.
My demo account is now $1,074,000 up from $500k and I buy 7 lots at a time x 5 positions = 35 lots. Making money faster as it builds. I started buying 1 lot at a time, then when I passed the $750k mark I increased to 5, now 7.
Even a 5 pip profit gives me $350.
At the moment I have 4 older positions at 214.90 and 4 more at 213.90, all lower ones are cashed out. Now it gets interesting because if she drops to the 209’s and then does not return to 215+ anytime soon … some predictions are that she will go back under 200 :eek: … so I will have to see how to manage that scenario if it occurs. Interest is building but not enough to cover a major dd.
Well, that is what this account is all about … to see what would happen in a ‘worst case’ scenario.
A pullback to 209.40 (the 200 ema on daily) would most like be followed by a retracement back up, at least to 211-212… so I think I would watch price carefully there & if it looks like the next move is back down, then I will just close those higher positions. I see no point in riding them down to below 209.
I “think” I would put a 500 pip max drawdown on positions, that is a $35k loss per position, which is not nice but not that big a deal in a $1m + account
In a $10k account, playing micro lots, that would be a $350 loss per position.
My aim is to thorougly test this to develop a set of guidelines that can double an account within 2-3 months. IMO the minimum to start would be $5k with a micro account and one would have to be careful until the account reaches $7,500. After $10k, still trading micros, there should be plenty of money not to worry about normal dd’s.
By this formula, a minimum of $50k would be needed to switch from micro to mini and $500k to switch from mini to full.
However, starting with $10k and doubling every 3 months would yield $1million in 21 months. I can wait
**his strategy in a nutshell is to buy all pullbacks in the G-Y, never short, do not use SLs and never sell. If she goes down, let equity build through the carry trade interest. My modification on this is to sell the position if it reaches a 500 pip loss. The trick is to never have TMTH (too many too high) and to take constant smaller profits along the way to build the account balance. For more information see Rrram’s thread under the Holy Grails, Free Forex Trading Systems.
No not immediately, if you get out, you stay out until there is a good reason to get back in, the idea behind getting out is because you think there is a lot more downside just ahead. I am not sure an arbitrary [I]number[/I] can be picked for a s/l, but I do feel something should be in place, like violation of trendline, fib extension etc.
Finding the correct place to bail when things go bad could be a big part of making this a true “holy grail” strategy
Or … is it better just to hedge? Hedge the guppy? or another pair like the G-C.
What MA are you plotting for a 200 daily average of 209.40? I see the 200 SMA around 212.77, 200 EMA around 215.70. I see the 50 SMA and EMA right around 211. Different TF?
??? 200 sma on daily guppy is 209.49, 200 ema is 212.36. ???
Which guppy are you looking at?
What’s interesting on the daily chart is the ascending wedge that is becoming apparent from mid-March on…has this entire leg up been corrective? The next levels of importance in that scope are 217 above and 211.20, 204.10 and 192.64 below. :eek:
Precisely … I have heard a lot of chatter lately about the guppy going back below 200. That is why, although the basic rrram strategy is a sound one during an uptrend, or even during chop, it is rather silly imo to try to ride it out through prolonged downturns. As I just mentioned in the other thread, I am not sure which is the correct way to move during possible severe or prolonged downturns …
do you put a hard stop? hedge by simultaneously shorting the guppy? hedge by shorting the g-swissy?
As of now I would be leaning towards putting in a hard stop & once out stay out until good reason to get back in. At the same time, get short the G-CHF and short every bounce…
That advice and $7 will get you a latte at Starbucks
Also check out the weekly … price is right on the 200 ema and touching a trendline from high of June 07 … and you see the ascending wedge even more steeply ascending … this does look like a corrective retracement before a downtrend continuation … to my untrained eyes at least :eek:
I don’t like to hedge the guppy with another yen cross or place two longs for every short, or anything like that. One reason it is complicated. I like simple. Two, all you are doing is killing off her range to be more like the yen major. So why not give guppy the boot and go trade uj.
You could put a limit short at a max draw down point. The short isn’t for profit, but for protection. The price of the protection is the spread. You close the short each time it comes back to b/e. If the short is triggered again, you pay the insurance again. You do this however many times you need.
I was looking at the above idea and decided to scrap it. But I will share it in case you guys or anyone else would like to try or modify it.
Yeah … and I guess here is where we depart rational reasoning and proceed down the rabbit hole… or into woo-woo land :D.
A large part of Elijah’s strategy … in fact, maybe the core part without which the whole strategy would be no more … involves the ‘belief’ that ‘she wants to go up’.
Like assigning a form of consciousness to the pair, which in more rational terms could just be the ‘collective’ mindset of those who are trading her.
But here is where we beg the question … to what extent[I] do [/I]we ‘create our own reality’ every day, every moment? (as increasing numbers of physicists are agreeing that we do…)
If you subscribe to even a glimmer of that … then you don’t short the guppy, you short something else. Because shorting her negates the energy of [I]knowing[/I] that she ‘wants to go up’.
I don’t know which side of the fence I am on right now, but I do know I am trying to devise a rational, sound and winning strategy to play her … without switching from long to short to long to short…
In fact I am noticing that I am doing that on other pairs as well … I don’t go long the euro anymore. I wait for bounces to the upsides and then short. It is working out much better that way.
I only short the G-CHF.
With the G-$ and $-Yen, I still swing both ways
No opinion yet on the EUR/JPY.
But is it preferable to pick your pair & pick your direction then stick to it? Do you align yourself into a better ‘energy flow’ that way??
I’m flat on the guppy for now, managed to get out close enough to b/e on the last bounce into the high 70’s. Dang I missed a chance to short the GBP-CHF, almost did it at 2.0641 but the stochs were so oversold, I held back.
Stochs are still oversold and G-C is 100 pips lower
Guppy has a 100 pip tr (what else is new) and the skilled scalpers could keep picking up pips, but I think she is due to break one way or the other before too long, so if it is up, I will get back in then … but my spider sensors say it may be the down elevator to the 209’s where I would also be waiting
Well maybe I am finally getting the hang of this … I couldn’t resist shorting when she fell out of that trading range and got some nice pips down to 210.70. Now I am long again, hopefully not too soon as she did not get to Jeb’s target of 209.70. I have 2 buy limit orders in at 209.90 just in case she does decide to pay a token homage to the elliott wave prediction … and if not, I have tp’s around 212. I am not sure how strong the up move will be, but figure I can always get in again on the other side of the former trading range if she shows continued upward momentum.
Obviously I am still not convinced that she will be heading into the teens again any time soon … but I am wrong more often than right
I am short again now but if she crosses 212 with any momentum, I am out. Otherwise looking for a retracement to 211.30-40. Not sure we will get any more than that for the moment anyway.
4xstar great thread!!! I am excited to follow and learn something. To tell you the truth as of right now i will only demo guppy coz she’s kicked my a$$ quite a few times and Ive determined that all the ways Ive tried to to trade her don’t work well. Having said that I will say it really is a love hate relationship coz I love to get a piece of her someday, but for now I am going to follow this thread and watch and learn. Im greatful for your experience and Andrewunknown and mytwopips. Just keep up the great posts and Ill continue to learn
yes welcome johnny! And you are wise to only trade our guppy gal in demo for now … wish I had done that in the beginning!
Additionally, Friday and yesterday both saw rejections @ 212, and we now have a cut through intraday, but if close coming in above that succession of failed tests only bolsters a s-t bullish reversal that could carry us to at least 212.70.
I’ve been wrong before, though, so we’ll see.
I hope you are as I am accumulating short positions … if she breaks 212.20 I will close and reverse fast. But I think our friend Jeb next door is right about her moves over the next 24 hours, which means another test of low 211’s at which point I will be out
so yesterdays daily candle is a bear hammer and is channeling up, and the 4hr is channeling up. why do you thing it will move down? is 212 strong resistence or is it the fibs level? what time frame do you guys trade. 4xstar in the begining you mention 1hr and 4hr for the stoch rainbow ind. Just trying to get a feel for this naughty girl
Well Andrew thinks it is going up to 212.70, I think it is going down first but mainly because I also follow what Jeb does with his elliott waves and also because normally when she is pushed down like she was earlier to 210.58 (which was one of Jeb’s critical lines) she comes roaring back with a vengeance … but this time she is not doing that. She is also not following oil like she usually does (oil down, GY up) and a bunch of other things … but since I really am not that sure, I don’t want to confuse the issue too much now. If she behaves as I think she will, and retraces to the mid-low 211’s, then I will explain more about the indicators I am using that helped me determine that.
I am experimenting with some new indicators, mentioned earlier in this thread, and I supplied attachments, the mtf stochs etc … but too soon to know yet just how valuable they will be.
Elijah is right in that after trading her for awhile you do get a “feel” for what she wants to do next. My 'feel" told me to hedge my shorts with a long at 211.60 but I ignored it … ooops! :eek:
wow i just took a peek at jebatfx’s charts ill never do that again lol!!! holy cow you werent kidding a nyc subway schematic. im more confused than ever. I dnt know how he can make heads or tails with all those indicators. but hey im not knockin him at all its just not for me. I like s/r and price action myself
Actually once you get used to them, that is really all it is … he keeps re-drawing his lines based on what already happened and then projects several possible future scenarios. It took me about a month to get used to it … but now I find them useful and often predictive
well ill keep an open mind and see what happens. ill continue to follow this thread and learn from your insight. It is my sincere desire to tame this wild woman
Looks like the daily closed at 211.81. Is a tweezer top when 2 candles have nearly the same high? And below you said:
as it stands we have a pin(nochio) candle setting up if Tokyo slumbers into midnight, a candle type that is often (though not always) the bridging point for a nice three-candle reversal pattern.
Can you explain more what you mean there? Or maybe a chart example?
