Nice bounce off the lattice point to ~202.55-202.60 (would’ve been a good day trade if I weren’t short!), but some stalling here - maybe a pullback to bring some reprieve to the extremely oversold condition on the 1H.
Forgot to mention: also note that 202.55 was the low on August 13. This point may now be serving as resistance since it was breached last hour (or are we seeing a double bottom? :eek: ). There’s more significant resistance back at 203.04, however.
My projections are always base on the system I use to trade. If you check the weekly chart I posted earlier in this thread you’ll see a part of the system. Seen that my weekly chart is pointing down to 178, I will sell on every signal I get (signals are from the same system but on smaller TFs) all the way there.
Well, the pound is having it’s way with the dollar, and the Guppy is following suit based on that strength. I took off the remainder of my short just above 203 and am flat for now; but I’ll be looking for a re-entry short later on unless it looks like a legitimate reversal is brewing here.
Well as we all know the market wont continue up or down, retracements will occour. Only a break above 207 could get me to buy again.
I saw your chart in #94, but missed the charts in #99 somehow. Thanks for the reminder.
That advance was pushed back at the .764 retracement level listed above, which with the tests from earlier this morning is turning out to be a formidable intra-day resistance level. Also .33 speed line resistance off a fib fan from 206.51-201.79 @ 203.34. Looking at putting on another short in this 203.34-203.51 area.
What are your settings for the fib fans? I don’t have a .33 setting on regular fibs, I set them at .25 .38 .5 .618 .75 … do you use different settings for the fans?
candarkitek, did you figure out your system by yourself or did you purchase it somewhere?
I’ve been both short and long on the gup, managed to get a ride back up to 203.50 & should have closed and reversed but was too slow. Anyway have been picking up a few pips here & there, am flat at the moment but I think the short at .34 + sounds good…
At least she is on the move again… 
I use the customary fibonacci ratios: .238, .382, .5, .618, .764. For arcs and fans, the three in the middle come into play.
Oanda’s charting package, whatever all it’s other shortcomings, allows one to create a fib study and then build speed lines off of them at .33 and .67 of the move. You can see they act almost as midway points between the first two and last two ratios.
No doubt someone has created an indicator on MT4 for plotting speedlines (it can always be done manually, as well) together with fib studies; but I’ve never bothered to search around.
You don’t need an indicator for MT4, you can set the fib numbers to whatever you like and as many as you like. I just added in .33 and .67 to my fan fibs.
Question about stops … earlier you said you would be looking to short the gup again from .33 to .51 which was good resistence (and I thought so too). But then she kept going up, although mostly hanging out in the .51 - 65 region. So … when you short (for example) at the top of a range you had targeted, but price then moves up, although not with great momentum, how do you determine a stop … a set # of pips or another technical indicator, like crossing the next barrier up, or above the top of a nearby candle … or is it different every time?
I shorted the gup at .51 and apart from going a few pips above, she seems to be fine … but the next resistence levels are rather distant and I would prefer not to ride it that far up. I would rather get out quickly and wait to see. A normal stop on the guppy for me is 65 pips but that is not when I am attempting to identify a more precise entry point like now … so tendentially I would put a stop in this case at 30-35 pips since I don’t see any other technical resistence nearby. There is a .50 fib fan line just overhead, but even that is up in the 80"S.
So how do you set stops when your entry was already at resistence?
cdawg from the other thread called this one perfectly … once he got his ALP/JPY untangled from the Gup … he said he was waiting to re-short at 204.50 which was also the monthly S2 line and she retraced perfectly right there, then fell. I am wondering if that line was the reason for his call or what else he was basing it on. I have noticed she often does not pay attention to monthy/weekly pivots the way other pairs do, but there may be some she respects more than others.
Just trying to find the key to unlock her secrets 
One day I hope to be skilled enough to play her up & down the way some do. I did it this time, but only for mini pips, 20 at a time and a couple of small losses. Each time I get a little better though … there is hope 
I noticed that this morning, and you’re right - he was spot-on there. Looks like someone else pays attention to the past. I did pick up a half position yesterday around 203.50, rode that out and then picked up another half at 204.44. Closed the 203.50 out on flattening buy limit overnight, now managing the 204.44.
Speaking of congestion areas and the interplay there between forces of supply and demand, 204.25-204.65 was such a zone before the breakdown yesterday morning. I wasn’t expecting a correction to that degree (the aforementioned 203.04 and 203.34-203.51 make that clear), but the pair has revisited there twice now, pushing back the advance each time.
My concern for further immediate extension downside is the ascending triangle forming, best viewed on the 1H, 30M or 15M. Draw a horizontal resistance line @ 204.60 or so (I place it at the top the congestion zone), and an ascending trendline connecting points 201.80 (around 0800 ET on 08/21) and 202.77 (around 0500 ET on 08/22). And speaking of 203.51, you’ll recall that as the .764 fib retracement level mentioned earlier - looks like we’re seeing some support there (also a lattice point with a fib fan line) that may result in the next climb to 204.60.
The pattern’s clarity and uniformity aren’t archetypical, but still easily discernible. Bias remains bearish on my end and I highly doubt a meaningful break would coalesce this afternoon, anyway - it may not occur at all; but the construction is worth notating.
I also see a symetrical triangle, upper tl from 12 and 15 Aug and lower from 21 and 22 Aug. She hit it perfectly at 204.40 on that last retracement, or whatever it was…
I have no idea what she will do next although in theory it should be further down. She is totally schizophrenic … hmm … do you see any similarity between her and a certain other person in this forum?? He said he ‘became’ the GY … maybe that explains it!
BTW, check out the UJ daily … looks like a really long ascending wedge and looking weaker … I wonder if the yen is in for some major strengthening like in March?
Yeah, that symmetrical triangle (well, the upper descending trendline) was the one I called the apex for at 2330 ET on 08/20: the break produced that drop yesterday morning.
I’ll wait to see what evolves. ~204.50 is looking toppish, and we have the higher low from earlier this morning after yesterday’s bottom, but this could be seen in the context of a symmetrical triangle, though I think it is shaping up as an ascending. 
I just closed out my short from 204.44 as the doldrums set in, and I’ll remain flat sometime after comes in Sunday afternoon.
The only thing that concerns me about a man becoming the Guppy is that everyone refers to the pair as female. Quite the conundrum there. I prefer not to anthropomorphosize, though, because as we’ve seen, personalization can result in attachment and bias issues that I make a point to steer away from rather than toward.
That has been looking toppish in the 110.20-110.50 area, no? I was able to take advantage of that dive the other night down to 108.40, but was too distracted elsewhere to engineer a sound trading decision for the move back up.
That isn’t an H&S on the daily is it? left shoulder: August 11 @ 110.14; head: August 15 @ 110.53; right shoulder: today? :eek: Probably not, but I’m watching for a short entry here; or a breakout above 110.60…but probably the former. 
Ah but in the Great Oneness, I am you and you are me and we are all the guppy and the Alpaca and the Omega…
There is no gender, just universal oneness… OHMMMMMMMM…
Quoth the Maharishi Alpaci Yogi…nevermore!
No, I would say that is quite a stretch … I really don’t see anything clearly defined. On the 4 hour there is a pretty good reverse h&s and I would hope to catch a short more towards 111 if possible.
i am interested in the answer to this…been ignoring stops for a while…
[B]QUOTE=JOCELYN Price influence would be a big consideration for starters. Is price being driven by sharp fundamental bias or technical jostling?
Aggressive fundamentals tend to exert strong psychological sway on prices as players react & position themselves accordingly to the output, & I�m not just talking about a rogue NFP or inflation report.
A key item of influence (such as the current credit crunch turmoil or Central Bank reshuffling, leading to carry unwinding for instance) can run prices thru several big figures very rapidly, & impact on the ongoing management of your positions.
Wide ranges will require different stop & management structure than a confirmed or maturing trend. Some of the range extremes witnessed on the Yens can be anything up to 300-500 pips wide. The opposite of that scenario would be the current (smoother) trending structure of the Euro, the Franc or maybe one of it�s cross pairs (EURCHF�GBPCHF).
Of course, the timeframes employed in each of those examples will also have a bearing as to how each scenario is played out. You know as well as I do that trends within trends (5 or 15m snaking inside a 240m or daily frame) will unfurl & contradict consistently, & it�s down to the skills & ingenuity of the trader to decipher which step trumps the other LOL. (did anyone assume this was easy???)
Once you�ve determined the recent & current structure of your chosen pairs, you can begin adapting your strategy model to the price action. Stops will be positioned & trailed according to your proposed profit take steps, compounding opportunities (if you adopt that principle) & ongoing observation of the technical behaviour.
There are a number of options one could use. 2 or 3 bar reversal deployment, usually more productive in range environments might be one choice.
Trailing up behind the previous or secondary swing points might be advantageous on a trend run? Hiding trailing stops away from the obvious round number & quarter number levels on pullbacks would be sensible, especially as prices are bedding in on a confirmed (trend) reversal.
I�d guess the types of trade management deployed will be directly & heavily influenced by the account balance in most parts. Someone running a 5k micro account won�t be engineering the same type of outlook or aims of a competitor coming to the table with a 150k pot.
The whole attitude, psychology & make-up of the trader is totally different & again, very heavily influenced by the account size available in the first instance.
However, the principles are exactly the same. The disciplines, planning & execution skills can be practiced & honed regardless of the account size. Sure, the (financial) progress will be slower, but from little acorns etc�.
First & foremost, before you even begin considering what�s required regards stops management, you need to determine which type of trade plan or strategy model you wish to become engaged in. Once you know that, you can begin formulating your game plan.[/QUOTE][/B]