Break held below 204.30 probably has the look of a trip back to 203 without much hesitation. Only thing that might interrupt is something newsworthy; and that might just accelerate the decline. Wonder what could foot the bill on that? 
Well I have it going to 178 eventually. Iāll be selling on all short signal. Iām looking for 203 down to 202 throughout tonight and tomorrow(Tuesday).
My bias has been and continues to remain short, unless the BOJ has something very powerful to say that will subvert the continuation of the downtrend. Iām anticipating a return to 192.64 as the low water mark of the rising wedge (March 17-August 11). The throwback begun last Thursday was also a continuation rising wedge that just broke this morning on the 0900 ET (1H) candle. So Iām looking for a more immediate move back to 202.55-203.12 to negate that, before pushing further below.
Of note: 204.53 is the 50% fib retracement for 202.55-206.52.
Wow, It looks like GB followed the master of irrational exuberance (hmmmā¦ where did that come from), and really blew them up a big ole bubble.
The old cliche of āThe US sneezes and the rest of the world catches a coldā could be a fine example here.
Just an aside from me this morning: 
Fib fan adherence:
Draw a fib fan from 08/06/08 swing high @ 213.96 (Oanda feed) to closing low (on 3H) @ 203.12 on 08/13/08. You can view it in 1H or 4H as well, obviously.
Yeah she is hanging out just under the .618 of that fan fib, on the 4 hour. Iāve scalped a bit today but so far still no sign of a comiitment from her either way. We waitā¦
The downside out of that continuation rising wedge to 203.90 and now the subsequent rebound today to 205.30 along with bottom touch 202.55 on 08/13 and top touch 206.52 on 08/15 have created a symmetrical triangle.
Lower ascending trendline: connect 202.55, 203.90
Upper descending trendline: connect 206.52, 205.30
Notice the uniformity of the spacing between the lower highs and higher lows: 135 pips and 122 pips.
Apex falls Wednesday night @ ~11:30pm ET. Perhaps weāll see a break overnight tonight. Outlook remains down, and my sentiment on the break is technically biased toward continuation, but I donāt have complete peace about that.
Thereās .382 fib retracement for 202.55-206.52 @ 205.02;
.50 @ 204.55;
.618 @ 204.09;
.764 @ 203.51
No low met at the ascending trendline - 204.70 instead - but now back to the the upper descending trendline for a test @ 205.05. Iām looking for some fireworks in the next few hours if the momo comes in.
My fib seems to be about 10 pips off the numbers you have below, but it still shows the picture. I have an indicator that draws automatic pivot lines and she keeps bouncing off the main pivot line instead of going down to touch the ascending trendline. Her bias is down, but she is fighting itā¦
Met the lower ascending trendline last hour (1H) and stopped dead @ 204.32ā¦thought a breakout to the downside might just be in the works on that candle with the momo there, but to no avail. Canāt tell just yet, but we may be getting a bullish reversal pattern on the 0600 ET 1H candle. This triangle canāt last much longer, however. Still short with pips in the bag, but more than willing to flip things if the market calls for it.
Sheās been like a little see-saw all day today, but is now moving her way along the bottom of the triangle instead of the top, her bias is still down, but when ā¦ when, oh guppy, when???
Or she could reverse and go up 
Even Jeb is saying she will either go up ā¦ or down.
Great minds are stymied when confronted by the Gup. :eek:
Or, as Keven Spacey said in K-Pax: ābe prepared for anythingā
here is all the good stuff i been looking forā¦ Really need to catch upā¦and quickā¦but plenty of reading hereā¦niceā¦
so is that a head and shoulder forming on the 4 hour chart?
will the uk retail sale figures due to be realeased this morning push price below 204 where she has been finding some support?
are these congestion zones samething as support and resistance levels?
Not always ā¦ if you zoom out on a 4 hour or daily chart you will often see areas where price has congested or moved up & down for hours, days or even weeks. Those are the congestion zones ā¦ or price agreement zones ā¦ and when price re-visits these areas, it could go into a trading range again.
So while price is in these areas of prior congestion, it is lower probability to speculate which way it will go next.
Yes; but this is a good occasion to point something out:
Support and resistance, taken together, is one the most rudimentary of concepts in technical analysis, among the first that most students of the market encounter. After a bit of time spent watching charts, recognizing the concept at work and trading in light of it becomes familiar terrain. Itās ironic, then, that S/R is highly neglected and an under-described, misapprehended idea among many would-be and novice traders.
Whatās to understand? There are points, on the basis of which we draw lines. Price gravitates toward those lines, again and again sometimes. The lines are subsequently respected, or not. We try to exact an edge in the market from those lines by observing them, and trading one way or another aorund them.
But why are there lines at all? Coincidence? No: the lines bring the psychological contours of the market into graphic relief: they present sentiment, bias, the fulcrum over which the capital inflow and outflow of the currencies of a pair may sometimes turn. Seemingly vague terms like congestion and consolidation that are often thrown around without regard for what they connote mean something very specific about the interaction between market players.
Well, fine: but is this merely fluff laid over-top the superficial ālineā explanation, with no real value? No. If traders were to view S/R three-dimensionally, without simply brushing past this deceptively simple concept, the effect on their understanding of the market would be remarkable.
btw: Iām not targeting you with these comments, Trav: just taking the opportunity to point something out, generally.
And p.s.: 4xStar said no but weāre actually both right - just throwing in caveats from different angles.
Hey Andrew, you lost me on this last paragraph. I specifically donāt understand the 3-D part. Like S/R and time? Or S/R and what the support or support is based off of?
break below 202 as expected, it will break 200 but i think not before next week. Iām still selling all the way down to 178 as said earlier.
A very productive night: I was an hour or two late on the break of that triangle; but break it did!
Quick note:
fib fan support @ 201.80 (50% for 213.96-203.12), along with the 261.8% fib extension of 215.89-210.54 (draw retracement study between these two points to view extensions).
This is what I call a lattice point: the confluence of lines for at least two line studies where support/resistance often turns out to be especially significant; or if they are broken, it is usually on fierce momentum and the continuation of a trend is probable at that point. The method is difficult to replicate because it involves drawing studies (a task where thereās a lot of subjectivity, as it turns out) and then using discretion where lattice points occur.
A break of the lattice point above means 201.30-201.40 next.
Sounds like weāre taking a page out of the same book, cadarkitek. Could you explain the technical rationale for your 178 target in more detail? I know youāve mentioned this forecast (or whatever you prefer to call it) before, but not with any accompanying explanation. I play down in the weeds more so and donāt have a medium/long-term target such as that. Iām sure others viewing the thread would be interested, as well.
I was going to develop that post a bit further, but life got in the way so I finished without elaborating.
All I really mean by ā3-Dā is fully understanding the human dimension. There is price on a Y-axis, time on an X-axis: plotting price at any two points will give us a line. That can be [I]enough[/I] to exploit points of support and resistance effectively, but understanding and remaining cognizant of why price does what it does when it moves into a tight range, or creates a discernible channel, or continues to bounce at the same point means moving into the third dimension, or what lies behind price. This is where [I]agency[/I] comes into play: buyers and sellers in the market crowd reach an impasse, strike an uneasy truce, temporarily align to guide a pair toward price equilibrium, watch and wait for previous points of hesitation or reinforcement to retrench their capital in a new position, etc. Understanding the agency dynamic behind those 2-D lines really fills out why price behaves as it does.
That still a brief, vague description of what Iām getting at. Good news, though: thereās no better place to learn about this than the āAlternative Technical Templatesā thread here on the BP forum, which I think weāve referred to in this thread before.