Hello peeps! Four posts to go to my five-thousandth!
For now, here is the latest Kiwi CFTC/COT positioning,
once again showing the short-to-long disparity between
institutional and leveraged-funds positioning:
Interestingly, both sides are heavily short the Pound,
yet this has been bullish this week, so it will be interesting
to see what will drive the GBP/NZD higher (as it is
undoubdtedly where its greatest potential lies).
Ah, my peeps!
What a pest, this New Zealand Dollar!
A positive +7.7 Global Dairy Trade Auction today shot the NZD back above 0.74
and pushed GBP/NZD back below 1.82…
I then read this ASB Forecast Pound to New Zealand Dollar Rate Lower to 1.61 Despite Further RBNZ Rate Cuts
and I can see some sense in this analysis, though it deepens my feeling of being so utterly stretched
in my patience… None of my thematic trades have truly committed to their fundamental shift,
except maybe EUR/GBP that has tumbled in the last couple of days, but not so much the FTSE100
or the S&P500, not to mention my NZD shorts against USD and GBP…
These last two pairs are the ones that really are struggling to find conviction in engaging with a ‘risk-off’,
Kiwi-negative theme, partly due to the global complacency in sentiment; however, with the pick-up
in activity this month and the FOMC rate decision on the 21st, we may see some big moves (hopefully)…
Buddha buttocks here, over and out.
Good night, and see you on my next post, my 5000th - for which
I would like to make a special effort.
PS: the Pound continues to rise and since September it has come up 400 pips, touching 1.3450 today… Yet, GBPNZD is falling, taking its clues from the Kiwi in the last 24 hours…
@PipMeHappy, I know you haven’t been posting here lately because you are preparing a gem for your 5000th post in this forum. So I understand if you don’t reply to this right away. I just wanted to throw in an observation.
In August I took a good profit going long from 1.7870 to 1.8070 for +200 pips. Then in the past week I went long again from 1.7910 to 1.8150 for +240 pips. As I was reviewing the charts for another opportunity to go long around 1.7900, this pattern caught my eye.
It looks very much like a classic Bearish Pennant pattern.
I don’t usually trade this type of pattern so I won’t take a trade but I will watch it out of curiosity.
God damn my rubbish internet! It’s potentially the BabyPips app’s ability to upload photos too but I’ll curse my pathetic broadband anyway.
GBPNZD has been a massive money maker for me today. I went long off 1.77029 as you’ll see the level on the monthly chart (back in April 2013) & more recently it’s clear on the weekly & daily.
I got 100-pips when it retraced for the first touch this morning & had two more trades at 50-pips each - totalling 9R for the day. I’m out now & waiting for support to break in which case I’ll be shorting from the exact same level.
I’ll edit this post & add photos if my internet/app allows.
I was holding a long on GBP/NZD at 1.7690 before yesterday’s GBP “flash crash”. I also had a pending order to buy at 1.7580. I was not sitting at the computer when GBP crashed but I walked by a few minutes later and saw the long red candle on the chart. WTF!!! The price was below 1.7000 and dropping! I had one position down over 800 pips and the other down 700 pips. When I thought that price had dropped as low as it was going to get, I decided to enter another long position which filled at 1.6850. I watched in fascination as price kept oscillating all over the place for the next half hour. Finally price came back and settled between 1.7300 to 1.7450.
I needed price at 1.7370 to be at break even for the 3 positions. Before going to bed I decided to close all positions at 1.7430 so I netted +170 pips.
When I was holding only the first position I was going to set my catastrophic SL at 1.7000 but for some reason I decided not to set the SL. GBP/NZD is the only pair that I don’t usually set a SL. After following this pair for more than 1 year and making many trades I am familiar with the huge swings.
I entered long again this morning at 1.7230 and it is currently +150 pips. It could easily turn -200 pips before the end of the day. I have my SL set to lock in 100 pips. If I am still in profit I will close the trade before the end of this week’s trading to protect from a big gap over the weekend. This is a very volatile and fun pair to trade.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair continues to make its descent. On the weekly time frame, the pair continues to respect the 8 EMA as a dynamic resistance and rejected the immediate weekly resistance zone to the downside. It has also rejected the monthly pivot which was proximal to the weekly resistance zone. The market has broken below the immediate weekly support zone, to an all-time low. On the daily time frame, the price action has been largely constrained by the 20 EMA and remained disposed southwards. However, the most recent candlestick indicated a strong bullish rejection of the all-time low. All the technicals on the 4H time frame bear southwards. However, the latest price action is at 61.8 % Fib retracement of the GBP crash during the Asian session of Friday October 7, 2016 but there is still a strong bearish influence.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
I’m back long at 1.7300.
Long on GBP is gutsy bro, very gutsy. Best off luck. I don’t trade the GBP personally but would be keen to understand a bit more to your logic here.
I’ve been swing trading this pair for the past year. It seems that every time it hits a new swing low, it turns around and rallies a few hundred pips before resuming its down trend. I’m hoping to catch 100 to 200 pips here. I decided before the week’s open that if it gapped down I would enter a long position.
Stopped out last night. Hit adjusted SL at 1.7400 for +100 pips.
I would only consider going long again if it dips below 1.7200. Maybe.
Between October 3 and November 7, GBP/NZD dropped 700 pips. During that period, I placed 21 trades and made 1400 pips of profit. What is interesting is that all 21 trades were long positions. I was just placing my entries based on what I saw as support levels on the 4 hour chart and taking advantage of the volatility of this pair.
Here are the details of the individual trades.
Adj SL = Adjusted Stop Loss. This is when I move my SL to lock in profits.
Hi Yohec, that is most interesting! I thought you were going to say that they were
short trades! Well, that is very skilled!
The Pound has gone up and touched 1.25, but GBPNZD has kept at a staggering uninviting
1.69-1.71 range…and the Kiwi has hardly been a winner…
All the more cred to you for making this pair work for you, going counter-trend on short-term trades…
You are king…
Respect!
Im guessing you must have had a sharp eye on those
I added to my profits during the US presidential election.
I have an open order to buy at 1.6880.
great job yohec!
Hi, this is a message for Yohec, tried to find a way of messaging you directly but I can’t see how to do it. You replied to a post I made on another thread - The most profitable trading pattern you will ever encounter, I can’t comment on that post again as I can only make max 5 comments on it due to being a newbie hence trying to contact you via a different thread.
I wanted to ask if you are still trading that pattern? Thanks, Rebecca
“I wanted to ask if you are still trading that pattern? Thanks, Rebecca”
I don’t actively trade that system now because I have been busy trying other things. I still think that it has a lot of potential and may start trading it again.
