Hello Babypippers!
It is the end of another trading week, and it is time once again for …
Commitment Of Traders!!
This week, just like the last few weeks, we see the same divergence
between Institutional and Non-Commercial (Leveraged Funds)
with regard to Kiwi positioning, with the former continuing to be
heavily short, while the latter heavily long:
Looking at the monthly time frame at the moment its the lowest i has been since 2013… I bounced off of that support a little and its kind of hovering around that area. where do you guys think it’ll go from here? Down? Or start an uptrend?
A great article published today by the research team from the Bank of New Zealand (not to be confused
with the RBNZ)…
[16530.pdf"]https://www.wholesale.nabgroup.com/sites/research/Publications/2016/BNZ%20Currency%20Research%20[New%20Zealand%2019-8-2016]16530.pdf](https://www.wholesale.nabgroup.com/sites/research/Publications/2016/BNZ%20Currency%20Research%20[New%20Zealand%2019-8-2016)
Forecasts given for NZD as well as all Kiwi currency crosses, with a global macro perspective…
Personally, as I spent hours writing on this thread, GBP/NZD was on the path to break a multi-year
inverse head-and-shoulder’s neckline in 2015 but from September to the present day it failed that
break; I am currently waiting for the continuation of that rally of May - August 2015 that took it
to the 2.46 high, which should make way for reaching 3.0 (and beyond).
That is no small target, of course, but this pair on a good day can manage an easy 300-400 pip range;
the perfect fuel would be an alignment of USD further hikes, NZD further cuts, and a renewed GBP bid…
What do YOU think?
Looking at the 4hr chart now there is a nice little wedge formation… Technically looking I’d expect buyers to come in and drive the price up before any selling power comes in and continues a down trend. Fundamentally speaking I couldn’t could not tell you, I don’t know enough about this pair and whats happening around it to make any decisions. Guess we’ll have to wait and see! Keeping an eye out though 
Well, the pair has pushed past 1.81 in the early Asian session, as the NZ balance of trade came out deeper in the negative than expected: this means that both month to month and year-to-date the current figures signal an increase in imports rather than exports, which obviously is damaging for NZ…
The Kiwi finally pushed below 0.73 …
A year ago, this was happening, when ‘Black Monday’ shook the markets as Chinese shares collapsed…
Key events tomorrow:
Uk and US GDP…
And…
Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium…
Good morning, peeps!
After much loitering between 1.80 and 1.81,
the Rocket is back:
UK Pmi figures were the cause of this, pushing the Pound higher…
No resistance offered by the Kiwi, which in my thematic assessment continues to align with a long-term bear view, counter-intuitively to the higher yield it offers.
The Rocket has been making progress…
Over TWO HUNDRED PIPS up in about six hours…
Light work for this pair…
Hello peeps! Four posts to go to my five-thousandth!
For now, here is the latest Kiwi CFTC/COT positioning,
once again showing the short-to-long disparity between
institutional and leveraged-funds positioning:
Interestingly, both sides are heavily short the Pound,
yet this has been bullish this week, so it will be interesting
to see what will drive the GBP/NZD higher (as it is
undoubdtedly where its greatest potential lies).
Ah, my peeps!
What a pest, this New Zealand Dollar!
A positive +7.7 Global Dairy Trade Auction today shot the NZD back above 0.74
and pushed GBP/NZD back below 1.82…
I then read this ASB Forecast Pound to New Zealand Dollar Rate Lower to 1.61 Despite Further RBNZ Rate Cuts
and I can see some sense in this analysis, though it deepens my feeling of being so utterly stretched
in my patience… None of my thematic trades have truly committed to their fundamental shift,
except maybe EUR/GBP that has tumbled in the last couple of days, but not so much the FTSE100
or the S&P500, not to mention my NZD shorts against USD and GBP…
These last two pairs are the ones that really are struggling to find conviction in engaging with a ‘risk-off’,
Kiwi-negative theme, partly due to the global complacency in sentiment; however, with the pick-up
in activity this month and the FOMC rate decision on the 21st, we may see some big moves (hopefully)…
Buddha buttocks here, over and out.
Good night, and see you on my next post, my 5000th - for which
I would like to make a special effort.
PS: the Pound continues to rise and since September it has come up 400 pips, touching 1.3450 today… Yet, GBPNZD is falling, taking its clues from the Kiwi in the last 24 hours…
@PipMeHappy, I know you haven’t been posting here lately because you are preparing a gem for your 5000th post in this forum. So I understand if you don’t reply to this right away. I just wanted to throw in an observation.
In August I took a good profit going long from 1.7870 to 1.8070 for +200 pips. Then in the past week I went long again from 1.7910 to 1.8150 for +240 pips. As I was reviewing the charts for another opportunity to go long around 1.7900, this pattern caught my eye.
It looks very much like a classic Bearish Pennant pattern.
I don’t usually trade this type of pattern so I won’t take a trade but I will watch it out of curiosity.
God damn my rubbish internet! It’s potentially the BabyPips app’s ability to upload photos too but I’ll curse my pathetic broadband anyway.
GBPNZD has been a massive money maker for me today. I went long off 1.77029 as you’ll see the level on the monthly chart (back in April 2013) & more recently it’s clear on the weekly & daily.
I got 100-pips when it retraced for the first touch this morning & had two more trades at 50-pips each - totalling 9R for the day. I’m out now & waiting for support to break in which case I’ll be shorting from the exact same level.
I’ll edit this post & add photos if my internet/app allows.
I was holding a long on GBP/NZD at 1.7690 before yesterday’s GBP “flash crash”. I also had a pending order to buy at 1.7580. I was not sitting at the computer when GBP crashed but I walked by a few minutes later and saw the long red candle on the chart. WTF!!! The price was below 1.7000 and dropping! I had one position down over 800 pips and the other down 700 pips. When I thought that price had dropped as low as it was going to get, I decided to enter another long position which filled at 1.6850. I watched in fascination as price kept oscillating all over the place for the next half hour. Finally price came back and settled between 1.7300 to 1.7450.
I needed price at 1.7370 to be at break even for the 3 positions. Before going to bed I decided to close all positions at 1.7430 so I netted +170 pips.
When I was holding only the first position I was going to set my catastrophic SL at 1.7000 but for some reason I decided not to set the SL. GBP/NZD is the only pair that I don’t usually set a SL. After following this pair for more than 1 year and making many trades I am familiar with the huge swings.
I entered long again this morning at 1.7230 and it is currently +150 pips. It could easily turn -200 pips before the end of the day. I have my SL set to lock in 100 pips. If I am still in profit I will close the trade before the end of this week’s trading to protect from a big gap over the weekend. This is a very volatile and fun pair to trade.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair continues to make its descent. On the weekly time frame, the pair continues to respect the 8 EMA as a dynamic resistance and rejected the immediate weekly resistance zone to the downside. It has also rejected the monthly pivot which was proximal to the weekly resistance zone. The market has broken below the immediate weekly support zone, to an all-time low. On the daily time frame, the price action has been largely constrained by the 20 EMA and remained disposed southwards. However, the most recent candlestick indicated a strong bullish rejection of the all-time low. All the technicals on the 4H time frame bear southwards. However, the latest price action is at 61.8 % Fib retracement of the GBP crash during the Asian session of Friday October 7, 2016 but there is still a strong bearish influence.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
