Excellent, yohec…
As I said on my video, the 2.40 is the breaking point of a fourteen-year descending channel, which in itself is made of two 6,000-pip cycles, each lasting around 1,750 trading days: breaking 2.40 is, therefore, a challenge because of the strength of said cycles and channel.
First time attempting to put an image on so I hope it works. I started with the GBPNZD middle of July and its averaging 50% of my profits. It suits my methods currently but feel its transitioning, so I’m not quite so active on it the last week or so
KT
It looks like it may now hold above 2.4000. The next resistance level should be in the 2.4300 area. For now I will stay on the sidelines to see what happens. Last time it broke through 2.4000 it did not hold it for very long.
It took off!! It hit 2.4300 and then bounced off. We’ll see if 2.4300 holds.
I have a bot I had coced and just run it on the H4 chart Rest of TF I trade manually. Just went long @ 2.4269 -21 right now
I considered going short around 2.4280, thinking it may reverse toward 2.4000.
I decided to stay out. Either way would be a gamble until we see what price does at the 2.4300 level. It could become a good resistance or price could shoot right through it just like it recently broke through 2.4000.
If it does not break 2.4300, I will start thinking about going long only if it approaches 2.4000.
Thinking the same
Hello, fellow ‘Poundkiwers’!!
As I type this, the pair is pushing against 2.43…
I have been holding long from around 2.4450 on ‘Black Monday’, so I have seen the position
swing to -750, and back up to its current P/L of -200…
To people like Eddie and me, this is a mere breeze… 
Holding steady, no fear…
PS: tonight, at 11.45pm (GMT+1), there will be NZ import/export data, which are expected to
show an increase in imports and a decrease in exports; this will yet again make the argument
for the 9th Sep. RBNZ rate hold or cut, as one of Governor Wheeler’s arguments against a strong
NZD is that it hurts the country’s lifeline (dairy exports).
Given that the UK was off-line today, due to the bank holiday (for example, the FTSE100 was not
tradable), it was incredible to see the GBP/NZD’s moves, instigated mainly by the NZD/USD’s weakness
sub-0.65 (currently nearing 0.63) as a result of the USD’s strength (currently at 120.22).
So, to recap:
GBP/NZD has held 2.40 and is pushing for 2.43;
NZD/USD has confidently broken the 0.65 level.
Here is an update of my positions:
[B]LONG:[/B]
2)[B] US (Crude) Oil [/B](19th August position) currently at [B]+554 pips[/B] (trailing stop now above opening price);
[B]SHORT:[/B]
[B]FTSE(UK)100[/B] (20th Aug. pos. closed @ nearly +300 pips); new pos. opened on 26th Aug., now at [B]-246[/B];
[B]EUR/GBP [/B](opened on 17th July) currently at [B]-365 pips[/B].
Overall floating P/L: under -300 pips.
Interesting opinions, always trying to keep an open mind.
Hey all,
Haven’t been able to trade for a week or so now, some very long 18+ hour days with the business, been checking in every now and then but haven’t been active at all. Another couple of weeks of silly hours ahead so I’ll be back trading mid September.
Funny how I miss it even after significant losses on gbp/nzd over the last few weeks. I suppose that the bug!!.
Good to hear the update pipmehappy.
All the best.
Shy.
You’re not missing much at the moment, just ranging
I’m back in. Long at 2.4090
Thank you, Shy,
This pair drew us all in with its incredibly energy, but there has been a lot of frustration since mid-July
for the ‘buy and hold’ approach because even the ‘Black Monday’ rocket did not progress this pair
very far beyond 2.40… I am sure that we will get the second leg of the April-to-July run soon, but, at
present, much depends on the 9th, 10th, and 17th Sep. rate decisions by the three central banks that can
influence fundamentals for this pair (respectively the RBNZ, the BoE, and the Federal Reserve Bank).
As far as risk trends, after my +550 P/L on US (Crude) Oil reversed I was stopped out at just under 90
pips (my trailing stop), which I was happy about because I noticed that there was a strong correlation
forming between US (Crude) Oil and the FTSE100, and I did not want to be long one and short the other,
so now I will just be happy holding on to my FTSE100 short position (and leave US Oil alone).
This means that I do not have double exposure to the same risk theme, that is the commodities-equities
sell-off; also, I had to limit my exposure anyway, as my GBP/NZD and EUR/GBP trades are both in
the region of -400 P/L each, so I want to be waiting until these realign with my fundamental analysis
and trend before adding any more trades.
The fact that I am doubling my exposure to GBP is also a concern, so depending on how the EUR/GBP
short and the GBP/NZD long develop, I may decide to manage the two trades differently, but it is too
early to tell.
It may be interesting to see what the ECB rate decision and press conference may bring tomorrow,
as the recent mini-surge in Euro pairs seems corrective rather than a reversal of the dominant
(Euro-bearish) trend… This high-exposure event could be a great opportunity for people to resume
Euro-selling at a better price than before.
My fundamental analysis is this:
This is why I am short EUR/GBP, long GBP/NZD; also, with the BoE normalising policy and possibly raising rates (which Carney may do, if Yellen gave the lead in this direction), a strong Pound would
be mirrored by a weak UK equities performance, which would push the FTSE100 to new lows.
Of course, I could be wrong on all accounts and see red for months because Yellen and Carney would
not raise rates and the FTSE100 rallied one more time by 2,000 pips :5:
[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;720479”] Thank you, Shy, This pair drew us all in with its incredibly energy, but there has been a lot of frustration since mid-July for the ‘buy and hold’ approach because even the ‘Black Monday’ rocket did not progress this pair very far beyond 2.40… I am sure that we will get the second leg of the April-to-July run soon, but, at present, much depends on the 9th, 10th, and 17th Sep. rate decisions by the three central banks that can influence fundamentals for this pair (respectively the RBNZ, the BoE, and the Federal Reserve Bank). As far as risk trends, after my +550 P/L on US (Crude) Oil reversed I was stopped out at just under 90 pips (my trailing stop), which I was happy about because I noticed that there was a strong correlation forming between US (Crude) Oil and the FTSE100, and I did not want to be long one and short the other, so now I will just be happy holding on to my FTSE100 short position (and leave US Oil alone). This means that I do not have double exposure to the same risk theme, that is the commodities-equities sell-off; also, I had to limit my exposure anyway, as my GBP/NZD and EUR/GBP trades are both in the region of -400 P/L each, so I want to be waiting until these realign with my fundamental analysis and trend before adding any more trades. The fact that I am doubling my exposure to GBP is also a concern, so depending on how the EUR/GBP short and the GBP/NZD long develop, I may decide to manage the two trades differently, but it is too early to tell. It may be interesting to see what the ECB rate decision and press conference may bring tomorrow, as the recent mini-surge in Euro pairs seems corrective rather than a reversal of the dominant (Euro-bearish) trend… This high-exposure event could be a great opportunity for people to resume Euro-selling at a better price than before. My fundamental analysis is this: - the US Dollar may rise due to a Fed. interest rate rise; - the NZD/USD will be hit by the Fed. interest rate rise and fall further; - the GBP/NZD will rise regardless of GBP/USD falling due to said rate rise by the Fed., pushed by the fall in the NZD/USD, its main reference pair; - the Euro will be more bearish than the Pound, thus even in the event of a falling GBP/USD (due to the Fed. raising rates) it will suffer more, driven by a falling EUR/USD (the main driver for EUR/GBP). This is why I am short EUR/GBP, long GBP/NZD; also, with the BoE normalising policy and possibly raising rates (which Carney may do, if Yellen gave the lead in this direction), a strong Pound would be mirrored by a weak UK equities performance, which would push the FTSE100 to new lows. Of course, I could be wrong on all accounts and see red for months because Yellen and Carney would not raise rates and the FTSE100 rallied one more time by 2,000 pips :5:[/QUOTE]
WOW! Impressive…
I normally just toss a coin. Heads long, tails short.
Entered again, Position #2, Long at 2.4005
Still drifting down slowly but I think this will turn back up again.
In again, Position #3, Long at 2.3895
I would have joined in at 2.3800 but GBPCAD is kicking me at the moment on the GBP
I’m hoping GBP/NZD can make a big up move from here. If not, I already have a Buy Order at 2.3780.
I’ve been avoiding trading the CAD because of the uncertainty and volatility in oil prices. GBP/CAD looked like a good long at 2.0300 several days ago.
