Other events to keep an eye on:
the next two Global Dairy Trade auctions in December…
Since the 12.07pm comment by BoE’s Haldane, that higher rates would dampen UK activity,
GBP/NZD has fallen from 2.3225 to 2.3155 (that is, 70pips)…
The delayed reaction was very dovish indeed…
This was one of those examples where GBP/NZD swapped from NZD/USD correlation to GBP/USD correlation…
Good morning, traders!
Forextown in the last 24 hours has turned into
Zombietown! Well, I feel like someone should show
we are still here and alive huh huh 
Sadly, bearish Pound sentiment has pushed GBP/USD
close to 1.50 and, in turn, GBP/NZD below 2.30 and
currently just above 2.29: as there seem to be no
areas of strong demand above 2.25, I feel that Baz
may be right, sadly for GBP/NZD bulls…
All we have to do now is wait for December and the
RBNZ rate decision…
Before selling off down to 2.2950. I’m still bearish, the bulls have got a bit of work to do before I take on a long position.
Yes…
Truly, though, for a pair like this, moving +/-100 pips either side of the major level 2.30 does not give direction, so 2.2950, say, does not give a short signal, nor does 2.3050 give a long signal… We need something a bit wider in either direction to feel confident of directionality…
Agreed, it’s been a bit too indecisive for my liking for near a week now - I’ve been flat on the pair. We need another definitive move one way or the other.
I agree, Baz.
May I also remind everyone thay the
next global dairy trade auction will be tomorrow
at midday (GMT)…
I went short at the break of 2.2890 with a 50-pip stop. Assuming it goes south, I’ll trail it down.
I wish your short every success :))
She is will make a fine trader
Incidentally, this move that we are seeing (now approaching 2.28) is ‘purely’ technical, or rather not
derived from its source pairs or any fundamentals regarding Pound or Kiwi:
-
NZD/USD has been loitering between 0.65 and 0.66 for days, and today is no different;
-
GBP/USD has been dropping last week closer to 1.50 but today has not really done much.
In other words, the GBP/NZD’s down-move today from above 2.30 to nearly 2.28 is not correlated
to either a NZD/USD rise or a GBP/USD fall, and it seems to be from the GBP/NZD pair’s own technical positioning…
Without a fundamental driver from its parent pairs, though, one wonders how this move will find true
follow-through…
DISCUSS
PS: even with the thinning (end-of-year) market, and going toward the Fed rate decision,
that is, with less positioning between now and the next two weeks, it is however in the next
fifteen minutes that we will see the NYSE reopening for business after the Thanksgiving break
on Thursday and Friday last week… While this will not generate trends or fundamental changes,
it will be a welcome return to normality in terms of level of activity and of London/NewYork overlap.
Something else to be cheerful about on St. Andrew’s day
Currently at 2.2884… I hope you are not in a hurry
I bailed on the position in the end. I was planning on holding it longer term but then decided to day trade it & as the day had already moved a good few pips & I didn’t like the pin-bar on the 5-min chart (it’s a fair wick on it) so I closed out the short for an acceptable profit.
However, from the pin-bar, I took a cheeky long back up to resistance for a win & I’m short again (with a tighter stop) & this one I plan on holding for a few days…maybe.
I appreciate that fundamentals are what moves the market but I look at everything from a technical stand point. If the outlook is bullish but the chart is still showing lower highs & lower lows then I’ll be looking to sell until the Bulls have made their mark on the charts so a convincing break of a high or something. I’ve not looked at any correlation or anything. Long term, Im bullish but currently I’m now thinking of sell opportunities until we get back above 2.3060
