I sent a PM to pipmehappy a month or so ago with the same Idea Yohec, I think 2.15ish will be the next decision point
I hadn’t seen the ABCD until I started playing around with the Fibs. I wanted to see where the 1.27 Fib extension of the AB leg landed. The extension hits around 2.1820, but I couldn’t find any structure near this level to confirm. So 2.15 level makes more sense.
I remember now that you had previously mentioned the ABCD to 2.15. I guess I didn’t want to believe it at the time because I was still holding some long positions, lol.
Tell
Me
About
It
:S
Hello traders!!
Only three trading days left until Christmas Eve! Thinning liquidity, indeed, may stunt any attempt from markets to change the status quo; however, the severe about-turn I observed in the very last trading hours on Friday made me think that big moves can occur even when one least expects them.
With this in mind, Friday at 8.30pm saw the weekly release of the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, which showed a severe turn in non-commercial traders’ positioning, which mirrored almost identically the turn from net-long to net-short last May in Kiwi positioning, whereupon we saw a severe turn from above 0.75.
The attached screenshot is from Oanda’s graph, which shows the last blue bar (extreme right) as a very short stub, following a very large net-long bar:
Is the Kiwi ready to capitulate once more
out of that accursed 0.65-0.67 range?
Hey PipMeHappy…
Thanks for that!!
I appreciate your research and insight on the market.
That would be very telling is the NZD took a big dive, to me. I mean, we would very much have a nice slant going on if it would happen. That could mean they would join the CAD down in the dumps. And eventually point to a Major domination (as opposed to any Comm strength).
You know, as you have pointed out, they [B]have[/B] been known to fall apart. They took a real beating earlier this year.
We’ll have to see what happens.
Thanks again for that.
Mike
P.S…take a look at Philip’s latest post on our thread. (COT analysis) Is very interesting his take on a Dollar weakness, Comm strength coming sometime (Which of course is unknown).
I only recently started looking at the COT data, so I am a newbie there…
Is there an active com-dolls correlation? I mean: CAD responds to Oil, but AUD responds to precious metals and NZD to dairy…Recent declines in Oil have affected CAD but not NZD… My guess is that they really respond to those different commodities, rather than correlating to one another as a group…
This is the level of the 100-period sma on the monthly chart… Do these levels even mean anything anymore?
After watching the past month’s performance, I can’t see any support until it reaches 2.15.
Here is something published on Pound Sterling LIVE: Forecasts, News, Exchange Rates. This bank forecast table needs updating, but the forecasts are not that old. I especially remember Lloyd’s forecast of 2.56 for the end of 2015.
How could they have been so wrong?
Yes, Yohec, hello, how are you?
PoundSterlingLive have not published anything on GBP/NZD since earlier last week, and nobody seems to be able to say much on the performance of this pair of late… Price is now heading towards 2.17, which seems inconceivable, as both GBP/USD and NZD/USD have not made such big moves as to motivate this cross to delever so dramatically…
I am now past caring, as there is basically nothing I can think of as a ‘support level’…and the markets too do not seem ready to buy back…as they have failed to come back in all the way from 2.35, 2.34, 2.33, 2.32, 2.31, and so on, all the way down to where we are, I think we just have to hang our usual analysis hat and get drunk, hoping that this will all have sorted itself out when we regain consciousness…
This is what the markets are giving us on this pair, flouting all technical analysis, even that made by bank forecasts, so obviously there is something very, very unpredictable intervening that was not imagined, forecast, or even deemed highly probable…
I am still long, so …more waiting for me… I hope that in six months from entering my position (which would mean February 2016) there will be clear signs of a recovery of what, to me, still is a bull trend overall.
Crazy times!
Very impressive move indeed. Father Christmas is looking after you.
I closed out my short at 2.19 for some good profit. I am all out now.
GOOD JOB, YOHEC!!
Time to put your feet up and count up those earnings!!
Thanks for that.
My signals services have been very good and profitable for me. They will be my main focus going into 2016.
It is also stress free. I take the trade they recommend and then read the reason why I took the trade, lol.
[QUOTE=“yohec;739060”] Very impressive move indeed. Father Christmas is looking after you. I closed out my short at 2.19 for some good profit. I am all out now.[/QUOTE]
Still short over here. Have a great holiday. Glad to hear you got paid.
Thank you. You enjoy your holiday and good luck with your trading.
GBP/NZD …
is now sub-2.17…
What will the new year bring?
Now sub-2.16!!!
Get ready for the rebound!
[QUOTE=“eddieb;739706”] Get ready for the rebound![/QUOTE]
I closed my trade +1,100 handles. Not the bottom but a fine extension. Maybe a week or so before we see a move north. That drop will generate plenty of consolidation.