Thanks, Eddie…Well, I have given my acount that Christmas bonus I promised myself, so I am sufficiently capitalised for the next market move … I am looking forward to next week, as liquidity returns to the markets…
Happy New Year to you…and to your family.
Happy Trading, everyone!
[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;739714”] Thanks, Eddie…Well, I have given my acount that Christmas bonus I promised myself, so I am sufficiently capitalised for the next market move … I am looking forward to next week, as liquidity returns to the markets… Happy New Year to you…and to your family. Happy Trading, everyone![/QUOTE]
I’m thinking it’ll be a big one. But I hate to speculate. But I think it’ll be a big one.
The GBP has been dropping against everything in the past 3 - 4 hours. I can’t find any news to explain the reason.
Anyone have any ideas? I’m currently on the right side on 3 trades (GBP/JPY short, GBP/USD short, and GBP/AUD short).
Probably a combination of thin liquidity markets & month end / year end flows causing orders to hit big air pockets. A lot of the flows would have been done already but anybody who’s worked in a financial company knows there’s always some areas that leave crap to the last minute.
Pairs like GBP/NZD have been great to trade lately - respecting key levels to re-establish shorts at 2.2 and then again at 2.17. Not sure how much juice is left in the run though. NZD might be coming under a closer inspection in January which might muddy the waters as far as GBP/NZD is concerned at least.
It’s probably a fair assumption to make at this point. The UK economy is not doing incredibly but it is still projected to grow by ~2.7% in 2016 which is pretty decent considering that other countries have had to cut their forecasts recently. The BOE are being cagey but they are still projected to raise interest rates later on in 2016 at some point but I imagine this will be heavily data dependent. The NZ economy appears to be going in the opposite direction with growth estimates being cut, unemployment going up and the RBNZ is considering another rate cut.
If that all plays out you’d expect going long would be a rewarding trade. Timing is the hard part I guess unless you’re prepared to go in light with big wide stops. 2.10 is the key level for me and I would hazard a guess that that’s where the market is aiming for currently given it’s historical importance over the past 5 years of providing solid support / resistance. I’d be very interested in seeing if a long entry develops if price got down there.
Newbie here, but from my takes, all in a guessing game, yet all of you have time under your belts here. Is this a hobby for you folks, or are you actually producing an income to live by? So many if and and’s I read question my readings in this thread.
I am trading demo and trying to find a strategy that stays as close as possible to current price. Follow fundamentals, attempt to gauge sentiment, GBP the whipped dog for now, and follow a very short m/a to catch the ice cream truck instead of waiting for it? Any input? Thanks.
Na zdrowie,
Tim
For me it’s something in between right now. I work full time but if I can continue in the same vein as this year then I would be looking to go full time with trading in a few years. There’s no particular rush as I’ve a job that pays pretty well and currently I can take advantage of tax free status on FX earnings by going the spreadbetting route (provided I still have a primary job). No need to risk having to pay a mortgage, general living, etc. until FX is pulling in a solid chunk and is proven over a number of years. If you’re getting into FX just recently it’s probably best to set yourself some medium to long term expectations. If I do end up going properly full time when I plan to it’ll represent about 7 years experience in total at that point.
As for finding a strategy I’d highly recommend reading over these two threads:
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/6632-alternative-technical-templates.html
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/19076-technical-templates-2-a.html
For me they were key to putting together a workable strategy. In particular you’ll want to read the posts by Tess, Jocelyn, JimmyMac, SeanP and Andre Mayer as they all worked in the same prop trading firm together. They don’t offer a cookie cutter if this then do this type strategy. It’s more a technical framework on how to approach trading and use the brain box to tip the odds in your favour as much as you can.
Hello Kiwi traders!
The latest COT report, due last Friday but postponed to Monday (yesterday), shows a slightly negative Kiwi-USD tipping…
You will find the graph here:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/commitments-of-traders&ved=0ahUKEwiRweCJlpLKAhXJWBoKHcIlBeAQFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNHrxzlN4ILn0QGdJsXNDWNZhLBDaQ&sig2=r9HFtyFaPYbBgVPIPxppQQ
Select ‘New Zealand Dollar’ from the drop-down menu…
Hello Traders!
The Global Dairy Trade auction results for today are now out:
Due to this, the NZD/USD took a tumble, with matching (retail) volume, according to FXCM’s data:
Consequently, given the slightly net-negative non-commercial traders’ positioning for NZD/USD
(as per Monday’s COT report (see my previous post)), this break below 0.67 may have follow-through,
given that the strength of the selling volume matches that of the candle body in size…
On the other Kiwi pairs, we have a sharp move up from GBP/NZD, up nearly 100 pips to around 2.1935
at the time of writing this, and from NZD/JPY there was a break of the psychologically significant round-number
level of 80.00, with price currently around 79.70.
According to the author, the bottom line is that GBP/NZD will either go up or it will go down. He doesn’t sound like he feels strongly one way or the other.
Play it safe :))
Probably a fair assessment really. Depending on how things go over the next while with economic data from both countries and general market risk on / off the pair could go either way. And things really could go either way considering the variables involved. While I [I]think[/I] that the outlook is more favourable for longs over the medium term it’s a bit of a mug’s game trying to predict it. I prefer to stay light on my feet and adapt as the situation plays out on the charts over the short term.
Good comment! I agree!
Well, what a day!!
Kiwi-Yen under 0.79;
Pound-Kiwi reaching for 2.21;
Kiwi-Dollar under 0.67…
Also: S&P500 under 2,000;
US Dollar above 12,200;
Crude Oil under $35!
Risk-off environment due to China
concerns and more commodities slump:
Kiwi and Aussie (and Loonie) struggling…
Pound struggling too, but doing well against
Com-Dolls …
What a move for GBP/NZD, +500 pips since the start of the year.
I continue to follow this pair with fascination. But I don’t think I will be taking any positions.
Notice how on the 1 Hour chart, the 20 EMA crossed over the 50 EMA on 03-January. Ever since then, the 20 EMA has acted as a good support level. I wonder if this could be used to scalp some pips from this pair.
I know Chris Capre likes the 20 EMA on his charts.
It sounds good, Yohec…
Could you back-test this 20/50 EMA cross-over system on this pair?
