Tell us more: what is the strategy?
Good morning Kiwi traders!
Do you know what day this is?
It is Global Dairy Auction day, of course!
With the Kiwi having taken a downturn this week,
and with the COT report for Kiwi contracts showing
the fifth net-short week in a row, what impact could
another negative dairy auction have on the New Zealand
currency?
Actually, dairy futures hint at a possible lift in the
dairy auction taking place today (12-2pm, GMT),
with an uptick of as high as 6%; Amy Forde explains:
Global Dairy Trade may post its first rise of 2016 tomorrow - Agriland
Standing aside from shorting this pair unless it gets to 2.15. Though I don’t feel comfortable enough that price will actually get up there to go long.
Hello peeps!
Well, it wasn’t quite the predicted +6%, but positive
it was nonetheless:
The Kiwi-Dollar however did not move much
after this news, although a delayed reaction
is also possible.
Hello Kiwi peeps!
I hope you are enjoying a great weekend!
With the Pound-Kiwi pair having dropped from 2.12 to about 2.08, the RBNZ rate decision this Wednesday (10th March) will be a strong catalyst for NZD/USD and Kiwi pairs generally; with expectations of a rate cut to 2.00, could there be good Kiwi selling opportunities?
Ps: with the Commitment Of Traders report for non-commercials last Friday showing the seventh consecutive net-short week for Kiwi positioning, one wonders how long the Kiwi’s reluctance to break down (e.g. NZD/USD below 0.65) can continue.
COT report source: Oanda.com
Hello traders!
That is the second Sunday in a row where the trading week starts with a considerable gap up for GBP/NZD:
Do you think that GBPNZD will fall now? I’m sold on it for a couple of days and I am very afraid of it cause the pair stuck in this little range.
Bom dia, Hendrick!
Well, that is a good call (shorting this pair), ad I hope
it works out for you… If you look on the Balls Of Steel
thread you will see how wildly successful (and I am
not joking) Yohec and EddieB have been at trading
this pair, both short and long, as well as GBP/AUD.
As far as its next move is concerned,
consider this: given that the recent Pound
drop has now stalled, this pair will return to
its usual correlation to NZD/USD, especially
given that the RBNZ rate decision is just two
days away; for this reason, we must look to the
Kiwi-Dollar and try to understand what IT might do.
Look at this weekly chart and ask yourself: 'What may
happen next?’
As far as I can see, we are in what almost looks
like a triple top, going back five months (to Oct. 2015),
at/under 0.68; currently, price is just at the 50-period
simple moving average, and this
confluence of technicals certainly
suggests that the next move could
be either a breakout (higher) or a
resumption of the trend from Jul.2014
(lower): should the RBNZ cut its rate to 2%
this Wednesday, and the Governor adopt a
bearish tone during his press conference,
then we are likely to see the Kiwi drop sharply,
given that market consensus is for a no-change
decision - the surprise element could really shove
the Kiwi-Dollar out of its 0.65-0.68 range…
If this were so, then the GBP/NZD could
regain traction to the upside, and do so
in a dramatic way, given that usually a
100-pip move in NZD/USD is magnified
two- or three-fold in GBP/NZD…
Bom dia Pip me happy
Brilliant analysis. I think That is better to get out from this desnecessary risk!
Concordo plenamente!
BoE Governor Carney will appear before the Treasury Select Committee at 9.15am GMT:
Treasury Select Committee Hearing – The economic and financial costs and benefits of UK’s EU membership: Mark Carney & Jon Cunliffe (09:15).
Keep your eyes on the Pound…
RBNZ press conference starting now after it cut rates to 2.25%
Follow it live here
Watch this …
GBP/NZD H1 candle is up over 400 pips…
Surely you mean long ?
No, I took a short. I wanted to see if it came back to near pre-spike levels. The position is small and I have a 100 pip SL. It is more of a gambling trade than a common sense trade.
Are you expecting a big rally?