Hey PipMeHappy,
I am not much aware of fundamental causes of price movements, but I noticed multiple GBP pairs in a major supply zone, which could have led to a Sell off!
Hiā¦
Is that the 1.44-1.45 area (GBP/USD), for example?
Yes sir, That level on the GBPUSD and similar one on GBPNZD.
Hello peeps!
Looking at the UK (10 year) Gilts chart, which has a profound influence on Sterling,
I noticed that the inverse correlation is still very strong; in this monthly chart, which
I accessed on Investing.com, you can see that the top line (pink, solid) marks a supply
zone for the UK Gilts that has provided resistance in 2009 and 2015, and that price has
come back to closing below it; the 2009 and 2015 tops coincided with GBP/USD lows
(along the brown, dotted line at the bottom of the chart), and you may see how the
current situation is for the GBP/USD to appreciate off the early-2016 bottom and for the Gilts to
depreciate off that top.
PS: in the chart, the candles show the Gilts and the purple line shows GBP/USD.
Is this what has made Stirling and UK equities drop sharply around the London open today?
George Osborne to defend Budget ahead of Common vote - BBC News
Here is an update version of that chart, with the FTSE100 added in (red line) to
show the positive correlation between it and Cable, and their inverse correlation
to the 10-year UK Gilts:
Anybody tempted by a long from around here? Iām waiting at the moment - spreads have ballooned too wide but might have a go later once Asia gets underway.
I went long a couple of hours ago at 2.1040. As you can see, its not moved much so far
Another disgusting day in a disgusting week haha
I am off to bed! These markets have become abominably complacentā¦
S&P500 and FTSE100 have rallied hard in the last few days, which means that any risk-sensitive pairs
(like Yen crosses) may feel that it is okay to be a bull, that accommodative policies will save the markets from
collapsing: yet economic cycles are stronger than central banks, and in the end investors will generate a lack
of drive for over-inflated assets, which will mean closing positions and a re-balancing of overleveraged assetsā¦
This lack of trend, this moral hazard that stops trends and drives true fundamentals out of the picture
(like we saw with the reaction to certain central bank interest rate decisions in recent months) is not
only objectionable but will harm investors if it continues in the long term; short-term speculators are
making good returns in these range-bound, flash-in-the-pan-moves state of affairs, but the extremely
quiet VIX and a seemingly dubious lack of volatility all seem to point to the fact that the skew in
positioning is covering up for what may be a repeat of the 2008-2009 squeeze: it is only a matter of timeā¦
Went in at 2.1032 last night. Stop to B/E after getting a bit of a buffer zone ahead of retail sales numbers later this morning. Weāll see if it survives.
Good morning!
According to Investing.com, UK retail figures will be worse than the previous ones, so I am.preparing for more GBP/NZD miseryā¦
Bah
Humbug
;p
Yeah was thinking weād see a drift back from GBP generally coming into the release. Also with the long weekend coming up and the potential for brexit news to pop up at any time I thought traders might lighten up any GBP long positions to be safe. I liked GBP/NZD long from a technical standpoint yesterday but not so much from other aspects so I took all risk off the table. Doesnāt look like itāll survive at this point but no worries.
Well, trueā¦ It is not looking goodā¦
Went to 2.11 before falling back below my stop, just the 10 pips profit.
Few of the pairs seem reliable at the mo, definitely a lack of direction. Think Iāll sit it out until next week.
Hello peeps!
Happy Easter!
Just looked at last Fridayās COT report on Oanda and noticed that Kiwi positioning is almost entirely flat/neutralā¦
Kiwi-Dollar shot up in the 3pm-4pm period today,
not due to a USD drop, so perhaps either
the dairy trade auction results are out but
have yet to be published on the website
globaldairytrade.info or this is a purely hopeful
moveā¦
Think it was part of a general bet against USD that Yellen would not be hawkish despite other Fed members saying some hawkish stuff recently. Looks like they were handsomely rewarded.
Good pointā¦
It turns out that the dairy auction was not today, for some reason, and so it will skip a week, going into April.
I do not believe for a moment that today changes anything, because if wage growth picks up considerably this Friday, then the April FOMC meeting could see a rate riseā¦
I would really love the Fed to stick a finger up at the whole market and its complacent ways, and bomb equities for good, in one surprise moveā¦
In fact, I am.ready, I even bought the popcorn haha
A perfect example of support/resistance, round numbers & a pin-bar. That Sir, that is what you call āconfluenceā; which also translates to āmoney in the bankā.
It also respects the 20EMA with the pin-bar.
Pretty neat!
