GBP/NZD moving slow today? Why?

[PipMeHappy]

Hello!

Well, that met market expectation (swaps had a rate hike probability at 4%), and yet… the US Dollar got punished…

Now, this means, in turn, that all majors would have moved against the dollar, which also means that both GBP/USD and NZD/USD rose significantly; however, here is where I think that GBP/NZD is anti-Pound and pro-Kiwi: when negative Kiwi news hit the wires, they make the pair rally but it reverses; when negative news hit the Pound, the moves by this pair are longer lasting and sustained; furthermore, positive news for the Pound (such as we saw in this morning’s UK employment data) is brushed over and has no positive effect for GBP/NZD, whereas positive news from New Zealand is magnified.

I could give a few examples as to why I am getting the feel that the old fairly strict inverse correlation to the Kiwi has become mixed with an anti-Pound bias; you could say: “Brexit!”; indeed, that may be it, but it still means that this pair has no upside potential, given that the market has basically now discounted both the recent RBNZ rate cut and the negative global dairy trade auction data in favour of homing into any perceived negative sentiment on the Pound side.

We are witnessing a typical disregard of markets for ‘normal’ fundamentals in favour a desperate search for yield through carry trade, achieved here by selling Pounds in favour of Kiwi Dollars, thus earning overnight rollover through the interest rate differential…

Eventually, though, forward-looking markets will also realign to the inevitable fact that tge BoE is intending to raise rates in the foreseeable future whereas the RBNZ, high-interest as it may now be, is actively slashing its rate and giving no sign of wanting to stop.

My guess is that as soon as the BoE will make rumours that it intends to move, and give some serious backing to its words, the RBNZ’s high interest appeal will vanish in favour of Sterling…

In the meantime, given that the ‘Brexteria’ (=Brexit hysteria) has faded for now, how much more carry can be had from Pound selling? Perhaps we may have a really tedious three months of ‘chop’ in all Pound pairs, waiting for ‘the big day’ (the EU referendum)…

What do you all think?

Well, peeps, I was right about this… In the last few days, the Kiwi was fairly settled/static under 0.68, and yet GBP/NZD was falling due to negative Pound sentiment; yet when the Pound rose by about 300+ pips in the last 24-36 hours, GBP/NZD FELL by about 400 pips… Why? Because at the same time, the Kiwi(/USD) rose by about 200 pips…

So, this validates that our pair (GBP/NZD) at the moment is more sensitive to Pound-negative sentiment, disregarding any Pound-positive moves, and any USD drop, for example, which benefits both GBP/USD and NZD/USD, only gets a Kiwi-positive reading…

Thus, it seems that even with the RBNZ actively cutting rates and the BoE holding them (and promising their next move to be a rise), the fundamental themes are skewed to the disadvantage of the Pound.

Meh.

;S

[PipMeHappy]

So, GBP/NZD is struggling to hold on to 2.08…

All this makes no sense…

Brexit is yesterday’s news…

What is at play, here?

Methinks: short-term gains.

[Tektolnes]

Straight up risk on / risk off moves are the play in GBP/NZD & GBP/AUD for the past while. When risk is on these pairs generally drop and vice versa. Generally I’d look to follow the trend and short these pairs on days when equities are looking like they’ll do OK and we’re in a resistance zone such as former support at a big number. I’ve found them to be high percentage plays lately.

[PipMeHappy]

Straight up risk on / risk off moves are the play in GBP/NZD & GBP/AUD for the past while. When risk is on these pairs generally drop and vice versa. Generally I’d look to follow the trend and short these pairs on days when equities are looking like they’ll do OK and we’re in a resistance zone such as former support at a big number. I’ve found them to be high percentage plays lately.

It makes perfect sense…good analysis and good luck

[PipMeHappy]

New Zealand Dollar's Star Continues to Shine Bright, More Room to Advance...

[PipMeHappy]

…so…

the Pound has RECOVERED to just under 1.44;

the Kiwi has STALLED to just above 0.69;

yet Pound-Kiwi has DIVEBOMBED to as low as 2.07.

UK Gdp figures were positive this morning…

What…

…the

…bleeding

…Jesus?

[PipMeHappy]

On the shopping list of wishes for tomorrow:

1. Chinese PMI dive;

2. Non-Farm Payroll (incl. earnings) rocket.

Other than that,

there is religion,

and an ugly void to contemplate under 2.06.

F##k me!

[PipMeHappy]

New Zealand Dollar is Week's Top Performer: GBP/NZD Forecast at 2.04 Next

[PipMeHappy]

…Ooooo yeah, come to daddy!!!

[PipMeHappy]

So… THE KIWI/DOLLAR tumbles UNDER 0.69…

YET GBP/NZD first rallies and then TUMBLES HARD to BELOW 2.07?!?!?

When the NZD/USD and GBP/USD BOTH FALL, the synthetic pair that is GBP/NZD

IS SUPPOSE TO F+CKING FALL!!!

Things are screwed up with this pair…

Seriously

I give up

[Tektolnes]

Risk on/off flows again I’m afraid. Post-NFP the pair jumped up as stocks dipped. Then once the good ISM numbers came out at 2pm the pair dropped like a stone as risk on flows took over.

[PipMeHappy]

Risk on/off flows again I’m afraid. Post-NFP the pair jumped up as stocks dipped. Then once the good ISM numbers came out at 2pm the pair dropped like a stone as risk on flows took over.

Thank God I don’t scalp/ trade the 5m charts… I’d have lost my eyes and my sanity (and it’s bad enough waiting months for things to normalise)

[yohec]

How much lower can it go? I took some long positions earlier in the week and thankfully managed to get out at break even on yesterday’s spike above 2.08. No more long entries for me anytime soon.

[PipMeHappy]

@yohec

How much lower can it go? I took some long positions earlier in the week and thankfully managed to get out at break even on yesterday’s spike above 2.08. No more long entries for me anytime soon.

I have no idea anymore…

Have I got my fundamentals wrong? Has the NZD not DROPPED against the USD today? Isn’t the RBNZ CUTTING RATES ACTIVELY whilst the Fed/FOMC is RAISING RATES?

I mean

I could go on

But i won’t!

Have a great weekend!

Next week is the start of the new tax year… (Wed. 6th April)

Maybe THAT will get the Pound going?

Who knows!

Does God exist?

Discuss!

I am out

Peace

[PipMeHappy]

…finishing the week below it (2.0588):

what is going on?

Okay can somebody please explain

how a synthetic pair can become a law

unto itself, ignoring what NZD/USD and GBP/USD

(its parent pairs) are doing?

Regardless, there is a Global Dairy Trade auction

on Tuesday 5th April, so depending on what happens

there we may see a curb in speculative Kiwi-bullish

positioning…

[PipMeHappy]

Ps: the COT report from yesterday for Kiwi futures contracts shows a third week of near-flat (slight-positive) positioning, as shown by the Oanda graph:

This indecisiveness may be motivated by talks that the RBNZ may cut rates again later this month…

We will see what happens next…

[PipMeHappy]

…there are about double the number of short contracts as there are long ones, for the British Pound non-commercial positioning:

[baz1982]

Are you still long GBPNZD? If so, to save me scrolling back, what price did you get in at?

[PipMeHappy]

Are you still long GBPNZD? If so, to save me scrolling back, what price did you get in at?

Think of the worst place to get in long since August 2015 and… Yep

[PipMeHappy]

Think of the worst place to get in long since August 2015 and… Yep

If this pair wanted to be bullish again, it could accomplish several thousands of pips within a couple of months, as we saw in May-June 2015, so as I believe still (just!) that the next big move is to 3.0, I do not mind the wait too much…