It’s not like we did not know all this before… The IMF is no wiser than others who have commented on this…
It’s just price-making, pure and simple… In fact just this morning the Pound was a happy bunny after CPI data came out better than previous/expected…
What is the market willing to listen to: data, or rumours?
Hello peeps!
As you can see from this BarChart.com screenshot I took from my British Pound currency futures (June
expiration) chart, the Pound/Dollar is truly stuck in a 1.40-1.45 range:
on the 17th March (the day of the last FOMC rate decision), Cable shot up over 250 pips with a buying
volume exceeding 300k contracts, and yet failed to perforate that 1.45 boundary; equally, and
inversely, on 6th April there was selling volume of over 300k contracts, but again the huge red
candlestick on the day failed to perforate the 1.40 boundary and retraced most of its losses, creating
a large intra-day wick…
This shows that the Pound selling is overdone and yet even bulls cannot get this beast off the
1.40 floor, weighed down by a neutral BoE and by sluggish 1Q16 (first quarter of 2016) growth,
as well as the 23rd June referendum uncertainty (by now priced=in, probably).
[QUOTE=“yohec;758998”]GBP/NZD 1 Hr Chart. WTF??? <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
Price is making new lows. Sell the pull back.
2.06 has now been a support zone for eight trading weeks, from the week starting
20th February 2016, with the difference that, back then, this pair had a weekly
average trading range of about 610 pips, whereas now it has dropped to about 560 pips,
which matches the range of the late-January, early February period, when the pair made
five dojis in a row on the weekly chart, stuck between 2.15 and 2.25 (oh, memories)!
This means that this quiet average trading range reflects uncertainty, so piercing below
2.06 is now unlikely, because of market conditions, and lack of conviction… There is a lot
of good money on intra-day rallies in both directions, but as for trend, medium-term (bearish)
or long-term (bullish), well, forget it haha
Just my opinion!
Kiwi-Dollar and Pound-Dollar have not moved
much since yesterday, yet this pair decides
to break a multi-month level?
Interesting…
A good selling opportunity for you day traders out
there (nudge nudge Eddie and Yohec) 
Not selling buddy, went long at 2.0470
He says casually dusting off his balls of steel 
I haven’t traded this pair in 2 weeks, but I keep watching it closely.
I would not go short at the current level. If I had to enter a trade, I would go long as eddie did. I would consider going short if it retraces above 2.07.
I think I’m just going to stay away from this pair for a while.
Good call, Yohec, this pair is forming a terminal wedge and its trading range is squeezing: by all
BabyPips school standards, this is a textbook break just waiting to happen: my bias, of course, is
to the upside, but there is no guarantee of this…
Interesting to see that what this pair achieved in the May-August 2015 period (four months) has
now been almost entirely undone, except it has taken twice as long (eight months) to get us here;
does all this symmetry imply some sort of yearly cycle? Will May 2016 be another ‘rocket launch’
for this pair?
Nobody really knows… It is like trying to predict weather patterns: we look for patterns, but
Nature has a way of mocking us with unexpected variables; as in Nature, so in the markets…
Peace.
Hello peeps!
Have a great weekend!
Here are the key events for GBP/NZD this weekend and next week:
Doha meeting about oil supply issues this weekend:
Oil falls as investors expect little from Doha meeting | Reuters
weekly events for GBP, NZD, and USD:
For the following week (beginning on Monday 25th), there are some important updates
from central banks, according to the official calendar, so keep an eye out!
You will notice that the ECB will be releasing its rate decision this Thursday, but I have
not mentioned it because it does not directly affect GBP/NZD.
Sayonara!
Happy Trading.
…so, NZD/USD started the new trading
week with a nice gap down after the
failed Doha (oil) talks; then, at 11.45pm
(GMT), it jumped back up above 0.69…
I hear you ask: “Why?!”
Answer: apparently, a +0.1 on expected
CPI figures is a reason for wild optimism
and big buying…
Don’t make me laugh!!
This will better be faded out
or I really will have to wear a
joker’s mask tomorrow!!
Good article here, hot from the press:
…NZD/USD breaks above 0.70
making GBP/NZD dip BELOW 2.04…
Oh but, wait, GBP/USD rallied above 1.43…
Nobody cares…
I feel sorry for the Kiwi farmers
that the only way ‘the markets’
will listen would be by way of more negative
pricing at the global dairy trade auction today,
which would signal more probability of an RBNZ
April rate cut, which, again, would not guarantee
a curbing of speculative Kiwi buying.
I stay short the Kiwi because it is the
only fundamental that still holds true
in the noise of the maddening crowd.
However, we have to let ‘the market’
have its merry-go-round, so let us wait
what Fonterra’s dairy auction delivers
today…
Part of me thinks that the 9.30am (GMT)
UK (un)employment data tomorrow will have little
impact on GBP/NZD, although I would love the
data to beat the hell out of expectations and
send the Pound sky-high…
Well, NZD/USD is stuck in a yo-yo movement of about 20-30 pips, waiting for
the Global Dairy Trade people to get a move on and publish the bloody results!
Still waiting… I have to leave the house, so I will look at this later…
Pah
Great analysis:
…UK retail sales figures this
morning looked as attractive
as a rusty old banger…yet the
Pound did not slide, or stay still:
it went up.
They do not teach these things
in economics and business classes…
Welcome to Fudged-up Markets,
where economics and fundamentals
are just an afterthought.
Fudged up, to the last penny and cent.
Good luck to us all.
The perfect reason not to trade the news, for any newbies reading this
Indeed.
I can see all the signs of frustration bubbling up within me…
It is not wise to be upset when trading.
[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;760803”]They do not teach these things in economics and business classes… Welcome to Fudged-up Markets, where economics and fundamentals are just an afterthought. Fudged up, to the last penny and cent.[/QUOTE]
Hands-down the best thing that I’ve read on BabyPips in a long time!
