GBP/NZD moving slow today? Why?

Trading Discussion
121

[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;714710”] Yes, after a lot of creepy behaviour (!) around 2.37, it finally shot past it and, in the last three hours, continued in its once-customary ‘rocket style’ and blasted(!) through 2.38… I think it is trying to front-run disappointing New Zealand employment data (tonight, 11.45pm for UK traders)… Caution is advised, as always… a volatile pair… and that 2.40 level is still a big obstacle… Good luck, eddie and Shyfx.,[/QUOTE]

Thanks pipmehappy,

I’m not in though, I mainly scalp and at the most hold a position for a few hours. I don’t have the patience to do what you boys do!!. I’m not that good!.

Good luck

Shy.

122

[B]Hello traders! Did you make any sweet pips?

I did not… I stayed up to watch the charts on the release of the New Zealand (un)employment data, which

did very little for Kiwi pairs… Take the GBP/NZD, for example (see my hourly screenshot): it shot up

on the hour (11pm - 12am (GMT+1)) past the 2.38 level, only to retreat underneath it, and spending the

rest of the Asian session loitering around it…I am watching the chart now, at the London open, and there

does not seem to be much going on, but the day is yet young!

What are your thoughts on the pair?[/B]

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123

I think its approaching a drop now

124

Interesting. What do you base this on?

Personally, it seems to be struggling to pass 2.3800 with conviction. However, even given the huge rise in recent months, it is still well short of pre-crash levels and if the UK raise interest rates that would add upward momentum

125

I agree with you, Eddie!

I think that this beast is not done with its bullish ways, not yet… If the rhetoric from the BoE tomorrow

(MOPC minutes; inflation report) shows a hawkish shift in the vote, then, backed by the small but consistent

growth in the real economy, the UK currency could mount further gains against its counterpart, especially

in pairs like GBP/EUR and GBP/NZD, where the monetary policy outlook is much more clearly in favour of

the Pound, compared to pairs like the GBP/USD, where two central banks have a similar hawkish outlook

and there is too much balance between the two sides to generate bullish momentum in favour of one or the

other.

So, yes, I think that this pair has all the potential to break above 2.38 and beyond, although the probability

of that happening today may be small, so I would look for tomorrow as the BoE minutes and MOPC vote

come out for public scrutiny.

Happy trading!

126

Breaking up, past 2.39?!?

127

I have a buy order just past the top of the 20 day high. lets see what happens. on another GBP pair the GBPCAD has been nicely for me.

128

[QUOTE=“eddieb;714833”] Interesting. What do you base this on? Personally, it seems to be struggling to pass 2.3800 with conviction. However, even given the huge rise in recent months, it is still well short of pre-crash levels and if the UK raise interest rates that would add upward momentum[/QUOTE]

I agree with eddieb,

The h4 is showing a lowly scalper like me that I could make a few pips as price will lower slightly on the next 4-8 hours but the momentum of the last few months far outweighs this little price signal.

I just wish I’d got onboard in April!!.

To everyone who’s long for the 2.4++ level I hope it turns out!!. I feel excited for you. Good luck,
Shy

129

[B]In just over an hour,

the Bank of England will be giving us their:

  1. QE update;
  2. rate decision update;
  3. inflation report udpate.

Emerald and the Traders’ Club have been watching the Cable (GBP/USD) closely, and I am sure that

they will do well with it to the upside, but I prefer the GBP/EUR to the upside (as there is a clearer

difference in monetary policy leaning between BoE and ECB, than between BoE and the Fed) and

the GBP/NZD also to the upside (as, again, the BoE is more hawkish than the RBNZ in terms of

future monetary direction moves)…

So, with GBP/NZD bashing its head again on that 2.40 level yesterday, we could be looking,

today, at a great opportunity for an historic breakthrough, which would open the door to

a huge retracement of former highs… However, we will have to let the markets make their

move based on what they read into the BoE rhetoric and its MOPC vote, before we can be

sure that a bullish move from the Pound across the board is not a false one…

There will be a lot of volatility around, so be conservative and do not jump in!

Time for another coffee…

The countdown begins.

Good luck and…

Happy Trading!
[/B]

130

What did I say? :wink: lol +240 pipps

131

Thats not a drop for this pair, its a buy opportunity.
Long at 2.37170
Play this pair long term, the only time I get out is if a stop is hit :slight_smile:

132

[QUOTE=“eddieb;715095”] Thats not a drop for this pair, its a buy opportunity. Long at 2.37170 Play this pair long term, the only time I get out is if a stop is hit :)[/QUOTE]

I play the 1H chart lol

But good luck with the long :slight_smile: it might correct upwards

133

Up isnt a correction, up is the trend

134

Hello everyone!

Well, I have my 17th July long still going, it was just over breakeven yesterday for the first time in three weeks, and now it is

back in the red by over 250 pips… But I am playing this one for the long haul, like Eddieb was saying…

It is clear to me, now, that the reason why GBP/NZD dropped about two hundred pips in a few minutes is that the MOPC

vote to hold rates was eight-to-one: this disappointed expectations for a seven-to-two, which means that the market was

hoping for a shift in the number of voters in favour of a rate hike, and was ‘disappointed’… However, until I hear/see more

details in the news feed (over at Real Time Forex Trading News, Live Forex Rates @ DailyFX), this is all that I can see as a reason… Of course,

it could also be that ‘smart money’ was using this as an easy way to flush out long orders, and to move money around during

higher volatility moments… Who knows… Certainly, there is no change on the surface, in terms of the Bank of England position

on its future rate hikes, and the fact that GBP/NZD moved down two hundred pips (and the GBP/USD down one hundred pips)

does not mean that the market is ‘disappointed’… This is not, I suspect, trend-reversal at work for the Pound, but, rather,

a knee-jerk reaction: the markets have already punished the Pound for nine consecutive months, from July 2014 to April of this

year, for the Governor’s failed realisation of rate hike expectations in 2014; following this hammering to the sound of nearly

three thousand pips to the downside, from the 1.72 high (GBP/USD), the markets have, in the last three months, regained

enthusiasm for renewed Pound bids toward appreciation via BoE interest rate hike bets… I suspect, however, that patience

(just like for Dollar bulls and the Fed’s promises) is running thin, and there will be intense scrutiny of any BoE statement to

try and get some sense that there is no slackening by the BoE in its commitment to a first rate hike in the near term…

Today’s reaction is seemingly extreme, but it does reflect a market that has waited from July 2013 (that is almost TWO YEARS)

for the BoE to raise rates, and has already gone through an entire cycle of euphoria (July 2013 to July 2014) in front-running

the first-to-be rate hike of 2014 (which never came), and is now trying to revive this cycle after spending nine months

demolishing that euphoric bubble and bashing the Pound back down to its pre-2014 levels…

In other words, markets are irrational, and hysterical, so you just never know what to expect :wink:

Keep your patience-hat on, and watch today’s Sterling drop rewind as the day goes by… :slight_smile:

Happy trading x

135

lol ok why being defensive though? :5:
at the end of the day its who makes profits not who knows the most terminology and up to date news :slight_smile:

Good luck to everyone, have a good weekend

136

The trouble with online comments is that you miss the tone of voice… Eddie, I am sure, was not

being patronising, defensive, or critical, he was just making a quick comment… Had he said it to you

in person, he may have been smiling, so it probably would have come across very differently… Do not

take it to heart, Zizo… More to the point (and forgive me for being so direct): have you made up the

losses that you experienced last month at the hands of this pair (GBP/NZD)? I believe it was $180?

I hope so, or that you are close to re-balancing your equity … Good luck, either way!

137

Hi, I wasn’t being defensive, perhaps I need to use more smiley faces :slight_smile:
My point was that, as I am a long term trader, what you see as a correction I see as a trend. Thats all :slight_smile:

138

Says a smiling PipMeHappy as he holds open the door slapping zizzo on the back of the head as passes by and exits :18:

Sorry guys , can’t believe i said that but it’s the picture you painted pip. Interpretation is everything though…guilty.

139

HAHA

Excellent!

That made me laugh.

:13:

140

Hello Poundkiwers!

In the hour and a half post-NFPs,

GBP/NZD first gained 150 pips,

then… lost 150 pips!

Back to square one… sub-2.37.

I cannot see what else can save

the pair’s slip today…

It may go down to channel support

and stop there…

Will just have to wait and see…

Pah

Tedium…

Anybody else done any Kiwi trading today?

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