…we have (un)employment UK data at 9.30am GMT
and tonight, at 10pm GMT, the RBNZ will give an update
of its economic assessment…
Keep your eyes peeled…
If you look at the volume on New Zealand Dollar futures (Sep. 2016 expiry) contracts on here,
you will see how on the 60min. chart at 10pm GMT tonight, when RBNZ announced further easing,
there was an equal amount of buying and selling, resulting in a doji and a blue volume bar: the Kiwi
Dollar was therefore unable to close below 0.70, a strong psychological round-number level:
However, this has not stopped other pairs, like GBP/NZD, benefitting from the intra-hour bear move,
and climbing more than 100 pips up…
As I mentioned in my fiftieth FreeFX video, my fundamental analysis supports a weakening of the Kiwi,
which has finally begun to be realised in spite of much big-money bidding on it and its recent buoyancy:
finally we may see technical and fundamental reasons aligning to get the Kiwi down below 0.70…
Happy Trading!
SO!
The Kiwi closes the week under 0.70: what will next week bring?
The latest COT report, published half an hour ago for last Tuesday,
shows again a contrast between “Institutional” and “Leveraged Funds”
positioning, with the former heavily short and the latter heavily long:
Who will win this battle?
Good afternoon, weekend peeps!
As mentioned in my previous post, the non-commercials (i.e. the ‘Leveraged Funds’)
have a net-long exposure to NZD futures; this increase is shown even more clearly
over time on the Oanda graph, here:
Interestingly, this report missed the RBNZ announcement on Wednesday, given that
the cut-off for the report is Tuesday: the NZD fall since Wednesday has been noticeable,
completing a straight seven-day trading fall that broke through the 0.70 level.
This means that the dip in price is going against leveraged funds’ positioning, and this
divergence is something to take notice of.
GBP/NZD has appreciated today in the wake of a BoJ rate decision that brought heavy Yen bidding to the upside,
and money flowing out of the US Dollar: with the latter falling sharply, Majors have appreciated, with the Kiwi
up from below 0.70 to above 0.72, which pushed GBP/NZD from around 1.86 to 1.84… The fall was softened
by an equally appreciating Cable (GBP/USD), or else we would have seen a much greater fall in GBP/NZD.
With the BoE rate decision next week (4th August) threatening a rate cut, the GBP/NZD’s rise back to 1.90 and
higher is under threat: let us see what the new month has to bring.
Interestingly, I will come closer to a year-to-date for my GBP/NZD long (24th August 2015), and we all know
what happened that day last year: I posted something on Forextown a while back regarding August market
movements (e.g. crashes/sharp falls), so for anyone who believes that you can ‘sell in May and go away’
I would be a little cautious and keep an eye on that banished i-Pad by the swimming pool, just in case 
Happy Trading (and Resting)!
My concern with this possible GbpNzd up movement is this…
If it gets under 1.8000 I might go long again on the way back, otherwise Im out
Yep, in the daily time-frame for the past few months, as shown in your screenshot, it looks
like a pretty unquestionable downtrend. . . From that point of view alone, it makes no sense
betting long… I agree.
Hello peeps!
Well, it is that time again: COT report time!
For the Kiwi, this week has brought practically no change in positioning for
Institutional or Leveraged Funds, again with the former heavily short and the
latter heavily long, even after the RBNZ announcement last week (Wednesday)
which did achieve a Kiwi break below 0.70, at least for some time.
At the time of writing this, which is less than an hour from the Friday close of
markets, the Kiwi is just above 0.72…
What will next week bring?
RBNZ rate decision is only eight trading days away, and expectations are for
a rate cut, although today there was unusually high (post-BoJ rate decision)
buying volume on the Kiwi futures (Sep. 2016 expiration), as per daily chart
below - see how the strong volume resulted in a strong move to the upside
with the bar closing almost at the high:
Is this a reliable indication of a turn for the NZ dairy market?
In a sign its value-add strategy is paying off, Fonterra forecasts share dividend lift | Stuff.co.nz
Tomorrow is the Global Dairy Trade auction and it will be a driver for short-term Kiwi volatility.
Seems about right for the current logic of the markets Pipmehappy :29:
Quite!! Well said!!
Futures volume for NZD (shown here in the CME
Sep. '16 contract, 60min. chart) have died out
after price reached 0.72, so there is little conviction
there from the buy side…
CommodityCharts.com: Futures & Forex Quotes, Futures Charts, Custom Quoteboards, Commentary
Hello peeps!
Kiwi/Dollar dropping sharply after lacklustre NZ wage growth figures (11.45pm, GMT):
Will it be enough to break once more below 0.72?
The night is young…
Don’t you know that rate cuts and stimulus no longer work? Have you ignored recent examples from market reactions to BoJ rate cuts and ECB stimulus packages?
Have you really had no alternative but to cut rates? Are you held ransom by economists or should you not be an independent body?
Rate cut; further easing… Pound down across the board…
Gbp/Nzd down about 250 pips… FtSE100 rallying hard.
Well done, keep the bubble growing, BoE!!
All this time, all those posts & you still haven’t twigged this game yet.
No wonder your account is in the state it’s in.
You know…you are right, i haven’t.
You no wat even though u didnt have my back ill have yours . Leave him alone hes ok