[B][U]GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:[/U][/B]
[B][U]Taken Positions[/U][/B]
[B]EUR/GBP:[/B] long at 0.7270, target 0.7450, stop-loss 0.7225, risk factor ***
We’ve closed our USD/CHF position with a loss at 0.9790
[B][U]Pending Orders[/U][/B]
[B]EUR/USD:[/B] sell at 1.0675, if filled – target 1.0460, stop-loss 1.0795, risk factor **
[B]GBP/USD:[/B] sell at 1.4795, if filled - target 1.4500, stop-loss 1.4900, risk factor *
[B]USD/CHF:[/B] buy at 0.9735, if filled – target 0.9885, stop-loss 0.9660, risk factor **
[B]USD/JPY: [/B]buy at 119.60, if filled – target 121.60, stop-loss 118.60, risk factor **
[B]EUR/JPY:[/B] sell at 128.85, if filled - target 126.90, stop-loss 130.05, risk factor ***
[B]EUR/CAD: [/B]sell at 1.3490, if filled – target 1.3280, stop-loss 1.3590, risk factor **
[B]CHF/JPY: [/B]sell at 123.50, if filled – target 120.50, stop-loss 124.80, risk factor ***
[B]AUD/NZD:[/B] buy at 1.0135, if filled – target 1.0290, stop-loss 1.0090, risk factor **
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies
[B][U]EUR/USD Is Falling On Carry Trade[/U][/B]
(get short at 1.0675)
[ul]
[li][B]Greece repaid a roughly EUR 450 million loan installment to the International Monetary Fund yesterday, easing concerns of a potential default[/B]. Greek Finance Minsiter Yanis Varoufakis said Greece was committed to a fiscal plan that made sense, but that the government would not sign a deal just to get the bailout tranche. Under the extension agreement, Athens must present a series of fiscal measures to reform its economy that meet the approval of its creditors at the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF. [B]Authorities are hoping for a final agreement later this month, when finance ministers from euro zone countries meet on April 24 in Latvia.[/B]
[/li][li][B]The EUR/USD fell to the lowest levels since March 18. A depreciation of the EUR is a result of carry trades. [/B]German bond yields out to 8 years are now in negative territory, so the EUR is a funding currency. [B]We have closed our long position with a loss at 1.0600[/B]. Breaking below this level is a strong bearish signal that may point to further fall of the EUR/USD despite weakening macroeconomic figures from the USA and improving economic performance of the Eurozone[B]. Our trading strategy will be to sell the EUR/USD at 1.0675. The next target of the EUR/USD bears will be 2015 low of 1.0457.[/B]
[/li][li][B]The European Central Bank’s meeting is scheduled for next week. We should expect little news from ECB President Draghi’s press conference.[/B] The weaker EUR is already pushing up import prices of core consumer goods, so the risk of an outright deflation in the Eurozone is very small now. Let us remind that the ECB’s Governing Council member Yves Mersch said the bank would be free to adjust its quantitative easing if it advanced faster than expected towards its goal of lifting inflation. Such a rhetoric is rather unlikely already at April ECB meeting. However, this issue may be raised in the coming months.
[/li][/ul]
[U]Significant technical analysis’ levels:[/U]
Resistance: 1.0685 (hourly high Apr 10), 1.0788 (hourly high Apr 9), 1.0797 (10-dma)
Support: 1.0580 (low Mar 18), 1.0551 (low Mar 17), 1.0457 (low Mar 16)
[B][U]GBP/USD Bears Target 1.4500[/U][/B]
(sell at 1.4795)
[ul]
[li][B]Britain’s industrial output rose by a monthly 0.1% mom and 0.1% yoy[/B], [B]hurt by a sharp fall in oil and gas output[/B], and it was below a forecast for a 0.3% mom rise. Output in Britain’s North Sea oil and gas industry plunged 12% yoy in February, the biggest yearly fall since August 2013.
[/li][li]Manufacturing output rose 0.4% mom in monthly terms in February, in line with median forecast, after falling 0.6% mom in January. Construction output fell by a monthly 0.9% mom in February, compared with forecasts for a rise of 2.0% mom.
[/li][li]The GBP bears are in control. The GBP/USD broke below the stop-loss level of our long position and [B]reached its new five-year low. The nearest support levels are 1.4635 (57-month low on March 18) and 1.4505 (low on June 11, 2010).[/B]
[/li][li][B]We are looking to sell GBP/USD at 1.4795, just below 10-dma. The target will be 1.4500.[/B]
[/li][/ul]
[U]Significant technical analysis’ levels:[/U]
Resistance: 1.4740 (low Apr 1), 1.4815 (10-dma), 1.4885 (high Apr 9)
Support: 1.4623 (hourly low Apr 10), 1.4505 (low Jun 11, 2010), 1.4346 (low Jun 8, 2010)