Would have been an even better call if I took the EU trade! 
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Good thread around here. Just a few question, how do you call your trades to enter long or short?
Thank you B!
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Don’t beat yourself up on that. As you said, it was early Monday morning, a time many of us don’t trade at all! (if we are even awake!)
I also screwed up a bit yesterday, took shorts on GU, EU and US30 and banked profits but well less than half of what it should have been - that really gets to me, far more than a stop getting hit! 
- but like you said, it was Monday! 
Its my achilles heel, I hate it whenever the train moves on and leaves me on the station staring at it! 
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it’s all good - i’ve entered a double short in EU for a marginal 1% gain on account - at least that’s the idea (in my discretionary account)
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Hey @Jahruhay
It’s all based on the system that I use. I have no input on what does and doesn’t happen from a trade input level, SL and TP; which is refreshing. It’s totally systematic.
But in general it all feeds in from a SMA, session highs and lows for the prior two weeks and 50% fades of weekly movements. A weekly ATR usually gears out the trade from a volatility point of view so that i’m not bumped out by typical movement.
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GU seems to be forming a short, but nevertheless rather promising-looking pin bar on the daily chart (red) - at least compared with earlier such examples (blue). Seems you’re looking good with this one - once we get over your MA that you stuck there 
:
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Yep - looks like we’re going to close above the SMA that I use on the 4H. Also a decent bounce from the past two weeks 50% fade as I said above - it’s lining up, but it’s never a sure bet, anything can happen.
It’s one trade of many hundreds - i’ve seen the most ridiculous reversals, so nothing would surprise me.
Too right there! Afterall, we could arguably say that we have only risen enough to retest the hourly 200SMA here, which it has been toying with several times and still under.
But I think, hope, that the fundamentals are with you here as well!
Indeed - but we can list all the SMA’s and find one that agrees and one that does not, I just stick with one average SMA and hope for the best 
As for fundamentals, I care for nothing, my own belief is that technicals come first and news is priced into the market, regardless of the announced numbers. News is nothing more than a reason to react the markets, either in the way the news should commend a movement or opposite. It’s all but a catalyst to drive a shift in price, regardless of the directional bias and if this agrees with the news.
I think the only time that news really agrees with a shift in price is when the numbers are totally out of wack - which rarely happens, and even then there’s always someone in the market who knows something - so it’s priced in to a certain degree. I know this sounds daft, but it’s worked too long to ignore.
Lets see what tomorrow brings, nothing to shout home about thus far. Although a 8% week would have been rather nice 
You mind if you share how SMA and the highs/lows decides your position?
I appreciate the question, maybe later in the thread I’ll discuss how the trading system calaculates levels that need to be focused on. But for now it’s not quite clean cut, there’s variables upon variables, meaning that one input decides more than one output. I’m not trying to confuse the matter, but it’s not easy to break down in a single reply.
Let me work on how to display it graphically by a waterfall chart, it will make more logical sense.
Not too much going on here - lost the gains from yesterday
Still able to hold the entry level thus far which is promising
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You seem to have broken up through your MA line at long last! 
I told you to take it off out of its way but you wouldn’t listen!! 
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slow and steady wins the race!
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It’s just been a pain in ass if I’m totally honest. Such a slow position! There’s been little momentum today and the markets have been pretty flat… Also a new daily high in GU after NY close - yea i’ve seen it all today.
Also the Long entry level in GU yesterday was about 66% accurate, yet today the entry level has been 100% accurate with total respect. Just another confusing day in the markets.
My own personal view is that this position will tank to the downside - we’re still very much in a 5 day down trend.
“So why are you long” I hear you say? - As always this is a systematic trading approach where I have no input. Apparently i’ve got an edge, even if I disagree with it at times.
This is a brilliant comment!
Seriously, anyone who takes their TA seriously should have this written across their screens and chant it 1000 times every morning.
It says it all.
If you are going to spend hours constantly watching and studying a TA method because you trust its message then why jettison that trust once you have a position open!
Your statement also underlines and reminds us of the principle that trading success is all about the overall result over time and not just an individual trade.
I only just woke up and this was the first thing i looked at this morning. I haven’t even got up yet! Sad isn’t it!! 
But, really, that was a great sentence!
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I am wary of writing this having taken on board your comments regarding fundamentals, but I will take the risk of a bloody nose! 
(Actually, whenever I say “fundamentals” what I am actually talking about is the TA on the daily chart. I don’t believe the impact of true fundamentals are visible on anything less than a Daily TF and preferably the weekly/monthly - but these are not normally trading charts, just good for getting a bird’s eye perspective of the bigger picture.)
IMHO, most technical trading models are based on a kind of typical “footprint” that is broadly reflective of the characteristics of the particular instrument in question. But every now and again something major comes along and changes that core characteristic either temporarily or permanently.
And I think that is what we have been seeing with the GBP pairs due to Brexit. A process which has thrown near-term economics into a complete black hole as well as turning the currency into a progressively more political barometer the nearer we get to the deal/ no-deal exit date. “Sporadic”, “directionless”, “erratic” may be more appropriate descriptions at the present!
But taking a step back, I think the overall picture is still optimistic - as it has been since the start of the year, but we are now butting up against a broad band here that may indeed hold until next week’s votings and could require some substantially concrete event to clear the uncertainties and pierce through it. But your target is just at the base of that region and still stands a good chance of being tested in the next few days (if, that is, it hasn’t collapsed in the meantime! haha :D)
Anyway it is not my intention to muddy your great thread with my own waffle, so I will butt out here with some daily interesting lines:
Edit: I just thought I should add that I am not personally in this trade (against my own 1H chart, which has now gone from neg to neut) so I don’t mean any influence here to anyone else with my comments. It is a precarious time right now!
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Exactly, it’s just a game of learning when to switch off the emotions - but with enough stats behind you it should at least help to tame doing so.
I totally agree with this, and it’s playing havoc with my TA trading signals. GBP.USD is currently “Buy the rumour and sell the news” - it’s not being as rational as i’m used to. But, saying that, in time it will clear up and be back to it’s usual self. Lets face it, it’s not often you get a highly developed economy basically about to crash out of the EU and isolate itself from the world with no fixed plan on what is going to happen and what are the consequences. As a fellow Brit myself, i’d say it’s rather pathetic.
You’re not doing that at all, it’s relevant and useful as always - even if I am about to be stopped out on my GU long, ha!
it’s approaching the final layer of support before it turns into a dead trade.
Maybe but it is not dead yet!
Although my own hourly chart did also turn back from neutral to negative about 7 hrs back, it is still behaving very neutrally and the daily chart is still trying to look positive.
The interesting thing is that the Daily pivot line, which I treat as a kind of directional fulcrum, has been entirely flat for two days - that is really quite rare!
It is a really frustrating market this week and not just with this particular pair.
My general “feeling” on this is that the GBP is still potential waiting for an excuse to burst higher but is not given any fuel to do so and it is just drifting aimlessly with the currents in the meantime.
I read this morning that the EU has requested the UK to give them some viable options to consider and that they are prepared to work non-stop over the weekend to study them and try and reach a solution - - - and I thought, if that is the case, what on earth have both sides been doing for the last week!!! This is such a pathetic situation over such an important issue that has now been going on for 2 years already, and now they may still want more time…
I have kind of given up with GBP issues until something is sorted here. There are other fish in the sea which are swimming in a much clearer direction (and it is not oil this time! !
I won’t generally post charts on your thread but I thought I might add this one, if that is ok purely to illustrate what I have been watching in this rather exceptional and drawn-out scenario.
This is my hourly chart and this downward drift seemed to start last Friday in that blue circle when my short-tern band turned pale blue. I had sold it on Mon as I mentioned somewhere earlier in that red circle but closed out prematurely with only a small profit.
That red rectangle shows where it turned neutral. The short term band tuerned up and yellow but was still engulfed by that grey shadow which is a proxy for the 4-hour chart - which was why I couldn’t join the trade!
Now it has turned down again and, in theory, the vulnerability is, in the near term, on the downside…
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Are you trading just the 4H chart?