So the position has slightly worsened at the time of typing this, however we are still very much hitting a weekly resistance area (orange box). It’s rather choppy at the moment and looks like I better be ready to move with this trade. In general i’d say my own confidence with trade is around 6/10 right now.
I wouldn’t worry @anon46773462 - I’ll be able to take care of them. But, I understand what you’re saying, feel free to drop by whenever you want and put me back in my box from time to time too!
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Cheers @Diabolo888
However, GBP.USD is a beast of a pair to trade at the moment and incredibly unstable - any Brexit news or rumour and it’s flying off the handle. We’ve almost entirely erased yesterday’s move!
It’s great to see that I wasn’t too far off the high either when listing the short position in GU - it’s the blue line in the attached chart.
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Update EUR.USD Trade…
It’s no surprise that the EUR has seen little movement this week whilst the GBP is hogging the spotlight.
Regardless though it’s looking like the short in EUR.USD has turned into a dead trade with the Stop level imminent. Kind of a pitty as on paper it looked attractive with good weekly resistance, the 1.1300 round number level handle and at a 50% retrace of the past two week swing from 1.1420 to 1.1180.
Ah well.
Perhaps not entirely over, but it’s a rather big ask for the market to turn on a dime. I’m sure we will get an answer overnight.
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I wouldn’t say it’s a dead trade. Looking in terms of SD price has only just reached this supply zone and lower time frames show a double top. I’m in for a short but also not to hopeful at the moment.
Hey peeps, everyone in the thread seem to be very clued up on GBP, so I was hoping if anyone can offer an explanation to the strength of GBP today?
The vote lost by quite a large margin again yesterday but did not move the market at all, everyone says it is because that was the expected outcome and already priced in, okay I can accept that.
But since the vote last night and throughout the day today, from the EU speeches to the vote on malthouse compromise that will take place tonight, nothing seem to be positive, in fact I will argue that the risk of an accidental no deal brexit or EU’s decline on the article 50 extension have increased, so what is pushing GBP up? Does these news that came out today really make no differences in GBP directions?
Thank you for all the opinions in advance!
Hey @Han2019
It’s a tough one, most of what has happened the past few days of this week has been priced into the market already, this is why we’ve seen swings in price lasting literally several hours at a time; rather than one short-term erratic move when an outcome is not priced into the market prior to it’s announcement.
So what does this mean right now for GBP and why does it look like it’s strengthening?
It’s not really based off anything, at all! Price is range bound stuck between the high and low of Monday and Tuesday and any movements within this range are expected - we already know that we will have a vote tonight in the UK, and potentially one tomorrow at 7pm too - I’d expect price to stay in this 330pip range until something happens with Brexit which holds up, because right now it’s the same story on a different day!
Also, a lot of the moves you see right now will be based of rumors, EU members letting out snippets of Brexit based info like “what they see the outcome to be” - it’s all hot air, but when a GBP market is as sensitive as it is right now, well, these things can move the market.
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As @BaconSandwich said above, much is already priced into the current level.
It seems that today’s vote concerning whether to accept a no-deal Brexit is most likely to result in a vote for not leaving with no-deal. But this is not actually legally binding and current law still remains that the UK will leave on 29.3. unless there is agreement to an extension - which is still a unknown factor, although it is hardly likely that an extension would be refused. It is more a question of how long for and what will be done during the extension. One problem is that the EU elections are in May and if an extension were to go beyond that then the UK would also have to arrange Euro elections. So I would assume that any extension is going to only be about one month - which is not long.
There are many alternatives still open including a general election, a new referendum, cancelling the Article 50 completely (which the UK can do unilaterally).
However, today’s boost in GBP is probably partly due to the government’s announcements that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, most imports into the UK will not be subject to a tariff. In addition, it also announced that there will be no new checks or controls or customs declarations on any goods crossing the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland.
These would be temporary measures if a no-deal Brexit does happen, but they are aimed at soothing the concerns about what kind of “black hole” the UK will drop into in that situation - and anything concrete that helps clarify those murky waters must be good news!
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Thank you both @BaconSandwich and @anon46773462 for the reply, I now have a clearer understanding as to the reasons behind today’s move, will need to have another look at how I look at the news flow and their importance to the GBP movement.
I am glad I came across this thread and will be following it closely, thank you once again!
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If the UK leaves with a deal that should give the economy a boost and will likely lead to a rise in interest rates which would strengthen the £. A no deal departure will weaken the economy and would require interest rates to be cut or at worst left as they are. So the market still thinks we will leave with a deal.
Interesting isn’t it.
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So price broke through to the upside however this was level on level supply. I took a short on the 2nd level which appears to have been respected just about. Although price doesn’t want to move at the moment. As good a triangle flag you could ever find right here. Looking good for a continuation down in a few hours or so hopefully for a 5:1 RR.
It’s just been a relentless move higher, when the weekly 50% level was broken to the upside (the level I took a short punt at) I wasn’t expecting price to move to the downside again, and it hasn’t. But, did I take a long on the back of that, of course not. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!
Week 12 of 52 - Trade Levels
GBP.USD - This week i’m looking for either a long at 1.2961 or a short at 1.3310. This would be an OCO set-up where one cancels the other upon being triggered. In both instances I will be using a 70pip stop and a 140pip TP based on the ATR which dictates this. The position size will be 0.28 std lots which represents a 2% of account risk.
- The short trade is more than likely
EUR.USD - This week i’m looking for either a long at 1.1176 or a short at 1.1330. This would be an OCO set-up where one cancels the other upon being triggered. In both instances I will be using a 40pip stop and a 80pip TP based on the ATR which dictates this. The position size will be 0.47 std lots which represents a 2% risk of account.
- The short trade is more than likely
A word to the wise, I disagree with both of these entry signals on this occasion, rather heavily actually. However, as pointed out before this is a systematic approach where all trades will be taken on the levels that are generated based on my own systematic analysis.
Here is a screenshot visually showing the entry levels that I’m looking at this week
So far this month we are flat at just above 0% which isn’t great considering this trading system on average throws out 10% a month when risking 2% per trade. With this in mind you can figure out how it might compare to your own by dividing or even multiplying the risk that I take as it’s proportionate to the expected gains.
At least the discretionary account is so far this month up at close to +4%
You can find the verified account and blog links in the first post within this thread.
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Interesting to note the significantly increased volatility on the GU 4H chart from last week due to the Brexit votings.
Will we see the same this week?
Quite possibly, or even a very sharp directional move if May’s agreement gets accepted on its 3rd attempt. I am beginning to think that it is now quite likely to gain acceptance this time, especially if DUP are finally persuaded that it is ok for them, too.
But the main possible turnaround could ironically be amongst the hard-line Brexiteers, even though they may still not like the agreement. This, because they are now faced with the prospect of a seriously prolonged extension of the process if the deal fails yet again - and a long extension raises the spectre of a possible general election, another referendum, even eventually aborting Article 50 altogether. With their backs against the wall then maybe voting for a certain Brexit now, even with a “bad” deal, is maybe better than the risk of a diluted Brexit in the future - or even no Brexit at all…
On the other hand, maybe at least one EU country might do a “Trumpism” and veto the whole possibility of any extension at all and thereby force a no-deal Brexit on 29th anyway, regardless of the UK voting to seek one! Not very likely, though!! But, perhaps, here is an opportunity for Spain to negotiate behind the scenes for an even better grip over Gibraltar! 
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update - EUR.USD Trade Triggered - likely to hit stop level
So we saw the short entry in EU get triggered at around about 03:00 UK time (I was fast asleep at that time, followed by food poisoning two hours later - a great night sleep, not…)
Needless to say the EU trade is well into its Stop Loss range, I see little conviction towards anything really changing either in this trade. This isn’t me being negative, it’s just a daft level for the trade to have been taken at according to the system. I’ll take a look closer at how to manipulate this moving forward and understand a little clearer if it’s an issue that warrants a system adjustment or weather it’s “just one of those” trades that’s going to be produced from time to time.
Here is a live shot of the EU trade (on the RHS), you’ll also see the GU pending order (on the LHS).
Trade Management
From 22:00 UK Time Monday 18th (00:00 GMT+2) the EU trade will have it’s Stop Level set to the Entry Level. This is a standard approach with the OCO orders where they are time limited to enter a profit region of within 16 to 20 hours from being triggered [variance is due to 4H analysis which takes place]
update - EUR.USD
So we’ve finally entered back into profit with about 3/4 of the stop level being utilised - must say i’m a little surprised as I saw no real reason or key level for this to occur. But, it’s still early days, and the breakeven level will be approaching in under four hours where the Stop Level will be set to the Entry Level.
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update - GBP.USD Trade Triggered
This is more like it, it seems the system is holding up - this entry was accurate to less than half a pip off the daily high so far before retracing about 30 pips.
Let’s see how they play out. Also notice that the EU trade is now set to breakeven as the best possible outcome. The EU trade was less than 3pips away from being closed out, kind of annoying as it’s really drifted from the breakeven level which was listed.
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Here’s a live cheeky short in GU
No takers…
I could throw money at this thread and people still wouldn’t give a darn lol
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Hah!
I am also in a short term short here! 
I had been carrying a “Brexit” long trade but dumped it above 1,33 when things started to look “iffy” (and, of course, having noticed your sell order up there, too! 
). Since then I have resorted to quick ins and outs just for something to do - reminds me of those good old days…
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Yea, really looking for a new daily low here and then we should see a nice push down 
Just shifted the SL to BE, worth a play!
Please do- - I’m not proud!