GBP-USD system that seems almost too good to be true

What do you all think of this system - I can’t post this in the technical analyst forum so I apologize if it is misposted.

I have an EA trading system called Avonko and it has worked well for me so far. To me, I’m looking on the forum and everybody is talking about a multitude of indicators and technicalities they put in their systems. Isn’t that almost too complex?

From what I can tell with this Avonko system, all it does is trade overnight based on patterns that develop due to the different market hours in the big forex markets.

It’s painfully simple - but it works. I backtested it myself and I have been using it live now successfully - but on another forum I was criticized as being “foolish” for using a system so simple. To me, if it made 140% return on investment last year, it’s foolish not to use

Am I missing something? Everyone seems to be having trouble finding a strategy/system that works, and not just here but on all forums. Did I get lucky?

Simplicity is genius. I’ve traded systems and charts that rivaled a NASA space shuttle control system and after all of that, i’ve come back to trading as simplistically as possible.

Less is more. More only adds to doubt, second guessing, and essentially the additional indicators do little more than try and emotionally protect ourselves from loss. Heaven forbid a trader would have a losing trade.

I like losing. That means that my next 3 trades should be golden!


I think most traders agree with the maxim,

[B]“Give somebody a fish & they will eat today, teach them how
to fish & they will eat for the rest of their lives”[/B]

What I have read about automated systems does not instil great
faith in them.

Best of luck with your system though.

how do you use the Avonko system

its a black box system. You load it into MT4 and pray to god that it doesn’t lose your money.

Yea, i’ve looked at it before and the results are impressive for what it is. But the problem with systems - all systems are curve fit to certain market parameters. Thats why they tell you which pairs to use it on… because it doesn’t work on everything. What happens if something in the market place shifts and the pair your system is trading shifts. The settings are now invalid.

You don’t know this until your money walks out the door. This is what daydreamer eluded to. Its great for this month, or next month, but inevitably at some point in the future it will fail to work. ALL SYSTEMS DO. What happens then? Every systems trader i’ve talked to will tell you (if they are honest) that their systems have to be revised every couple months to keep the equity curves going in the right direction.

Thats fine if you know what you need to tweak. But with a black box system like that you have no idea so you’re S.O.L. and you will end up back where you are right now, with no idea of really how to trade and a lot of precious time wasted trying to take the quick and easy way out of learning to trade.

Just my .02


The thing I like about this particular system is that it is simple - I understand what you mean about the shifting market and shifting parameters, but this one seems to be pretty broad based and applicable to many currency pairs.

From what I can tell, all it does is trade based on breakouts from trends caused by different markets opening. It doesn’t promise HUGE returns (I’ve seen some systems claim 150 pips a day…) but it promises consistent returns (about 30 pips a day seems likely) and based on their methodology I don’t see how markets could shift to not exhibit this trend.

But I am new and don’t have much study behind me. All I know is that this is working for me now and apparently it would have worked equally well over all of the last 7 years (from mt’s strategy tester), so I am confident it can be consistent for me for at least a little while longer.

My true hope is that I can use it to build up my account and if/when it ever stops working as well as it does now, I will hopefully have accumulated enough money and experience to trade profitably on my own.

thanks for all your input guys, it is much appreciated

I did a little research before I bought the system and the reason I was confident also stems from their updates. Apparently over the years they have updated the system a number of times, so (touching on previous caveat) it seems like if/when something does shift to make the system less valuable, avonko releases a new version based on their technical updates.

The good thing is you get free updates forever, so long as you got the system from them. That’s a bit of a relief

Is this common with systems? Or are most systems just plug and play and when they stop working you’re done?

It just seems anything that was that “sure fire” would mean all the big boys would be using it with the super computers and lightning trades they are able to make so that the system would fail to work right?? I mean wouldn’t everyone be using it if it was that foolproof? Also if it were that good and that consistent then why would you sell it?? Wouldn�t you just trade it yourself (the box comp’ny) in ever increasing lot amounts until you were a super guzillionaire??

Rambling here but yeah get the point eh??

I get your point, but you can’t forget about the relative size differences among traders and the implications for appropriate strategies.

I’ve worked at an options mm firm and know that our trades wouldn’t be appropriate for the individual investor… and a lot of plays I think work systematically in my personal portfolio would not be appropriate for our firm.

I do believe the big players use systems and algorithms and I think these are much more powerful than anything commercially available for the individual forex trader, but that does not mean that systems available for us do not work to a more conservative extent.

IMO however, the biggest money makers trade on market psychology, not market technicals - they live and breathe the market until their brains are so in sync with market activity that they can almost predict the future. This is how it is in stocks, this is how it is in options, and this is how it is in futures/currencies - technicals are a more humble approach for those of us who aren’t as dedicated or in tune…

just my thoughts

I use a simple system as well using nothing but trendlines/ S&R / candlestick patterns and FIBO lines for taking profits / setting SL’s. Simple systems are great if you developed them or atleast know how they work. Trusting a black box system is like giving $$$ to a stranger and hoping they won’t run off with it. There is no room for [B]HOPE[/B] in forex IMHO :D. Good Luck to you!!. Keep us posted with your progress.


Funny you should say (write) that but that’s how I felt when I owned my firm. I looked at support and resistance and observed the trend but wasn’t anything even approaching a technical trader when I managed the mortgage pipeline… I did it mostly on gut and won many times more than I lost…then again when I lost it was usually a big one. All in all I came out far ahead but was very stressful. Now I’m beginning to see why what didn’t work well…didn’t work…

Rambling again…sorry

Yeah one of the main reasons I liked this system in the first place is because it is simple and very understandable, as the logic behind it is very straightforward.

With regard to trading systems, I think this is telling:

In an interview, Welles Wilder (creator of RSI, Parabolic SAR etc) discusses trading systems - and one of his two main systems has [I]only 2 parameters.[/I]

He also mentions that he never alters his systems to adjust to the market - that would simply be fooling yourself.

I think you’ve got to be really careful when buying a black box system. I know it’s a cliche - but if it were really that good you’ve got to wonder why on earth they would be selling it…

Yes that is telling, but that only gives me more confidence about the Avonko EA, as it is basically a simple trend following system with minimal indicators so as to minimize confusion or potential for screw-up (excuse my layman’s terms).

I never really adjust the Avonko EA for the market, I just try not to trade on big news days, because I think it poses too much risk for the standard parameters to handle.

And as far as selling a system goes - I think that’s perfectly logical for anyone interested in making money (as we all are). The only way I could deem it appropriate to keep a system totally secret is if it was earning absolutely incredible returns (like +10,000% per year) with minimal risk. 100%+ per year is still great, but it’s not going to make you rich overnight…

Just my thoughts,


At 100:1, 200:1 even 400:1 …100% can make you rich really really fast especially when you view it exponentially…