Range conditions have taken over GPBUSD since momentum drove the pair through 2.0 and 2.01. Now that the major has put in a new high, the market will likely defer big moves until a major economic indicator can guarantee momentum.
Event Risk UK and US
Trading Tip - Range conditions have taken over GPBUSD since momentum drove the pair through 2.0 and 2.01. Now that the major has put in a new high, the market will likely defer big moves until a major economic indicator can guarantee momentum. Though there are a few indicators from the US docket on Tuesday, they may find it difficult to rouse dollar activity when US GDP is due at the end of the week. At the same time, the GBPUSD range may not last that long since UK GDP is scheduled to hit the wires Wednesday morning. Therefore, profit should come rather quickly. If a position has not been triggered or profit taken on open trades a few hours before the release, it would be prudent to remove orders or close open trades.
UK - While there are quite a few releases due out of the UK this week, first quarter GDP will take center stage, especially since the figure is anticipated to ease back to 2.8 percent. Such a release could take much of the steam out of the British Pound, as the Bank of England may be hesitant to tighten monetary policy amidst cooling expansion. Meanwhile, the other indicators on tap may not spark much volatility. Nationwide house prices are expected to rise 0.6 percent in April, as growth in the housing sector goes unscathed. While there is no official announcement as of yet, HBOS house prices will likely rise in line with the Nationwide release. GfK consumer confidence may not be as resilient, however, as prospects of higher rates could cause concern amongst households.
US - The US faces a mixed economic calendar this week, with the release of Consumer Confidence potentially starting it off on a sour note. The sentiment figure is anticipated to fall back in April as gasoline prices remain high. The next day, durable goods are forecasted to rebound as the US consumer proves their resilience. However, US dollar trade may be subdued ahead of first quarter GDP. Growth is estimated to have eased back to 1.8 percent from 2.5 percent, which may only exacerbate concerns that the crunch of the housing sector has spread to the rest of the economy. Starting out the following week will be Personal Income, and although the release is predicted to hold at a solid 0.5 percent, price action may continue to ride the sentiment of the GDP figure. Finally, ISM manufacturing is forecasted to edge higher, as a weaker dollar likely helped exporters. However, traders will focus on the employment component ahead of NFPs later in the week.
[B]Data for April 24 - May 1[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for April 24 - May 1[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]UK[/B][B] Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]US Economic Data[/B]
Apr 25
GDP (1Q P)
Apr 24
Consumer Confidence (APR)
Apr 26
Nationwide House Prices (APR)
Apr 25
Durable Goods Orders (MAR)
Apr 30
GfK Consumer Confidence (APR)
Apr 27
GDP Annualized (1Q A)
May 1-4
HBOS House Prices (APR)
Apr 30
Personal Income (MAR)
May 1
ISM Manufacturing (APR)