GBPAUD at 19 Month Lows - Watch for Big Break


[B]Commentary -[/B] The GBPJPY continues to work higher as the rally from 221.05 is most likely in its 5th wave. The pair has consolidated between 249.60 and 250.51 since 7/17. This consolidation may be a triangle or a flat. Either structure is bullish as long as price is above 248.95. Very short term trendline support is near 249.70. The next measured objectives are clustered near 254.00. Coming under 245.07 would signal additional bearish potential.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Flat

[B]Commentary -[/B] We are looking for the GBPCHF to come under 2.4308 with 2.4751 remaining intact. A decline below 2.4308 would set up a test of the 6/8 low at 2.4149. A rally through 2.4757 shifts focus to the 61.8% of 2.7319-2.0928 at 2.4878.
[B]Strategy -[/B] If already bearish, remain so. If not, then get bearish against 2.4554, target 2.4124

[B]Commentary - [/B]We wrote last week that “a break of the 6/8 low at 2.3287 targets the July 2005 low at 2.2671.” The GBPAUD is right at this level now and a daily close would bolster the bearish bias. Continue to look lower as we believe that a long term downtrend has taken hold. The structure is bearish as long as price is below 2.3633.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Remain Bearish, move risk to 2.3633 from 2.3918, target 1 is 2.2671