GBPJPY Approaches 250.00 - Will It Break?


[B]Commentary[/B] - The GBPJPY continues to work higher, but the rally from 221.05 is most likely in its 5th wave. One measured objective for the end of wave 5 is 251.19, which is where wave 5 (beginning at 237.64) would equal 61.8% x waves 1 thru 3 (221.05-242.97). If wave 5 is unfolding as a diagonal, then the pair is much closer to a top and would end before 249.89. Either way, the path is towards higher prices until a break of 245.07.
[B]Strategy [/B]- Flat

[B]Commentary[/B] - Action in the GBPCHF has been rather whipsaw like for most of the month but we think we have a clear short term wave pattern to work with. The decline from 2.4751 to 2.4321 is in 3 waves and likely the first leg of a more complex correction. The rally from 2.4321 to 2.4554 was also 3 waves and most likely the second leg (b wave) of the correction. Therefore, we are looking for a c wave that will extend to the 100% extension of wave a at 2.4124. A larger A-B-C correction could be playing out as well from 2.4757. In this case, price is expected to come under 2.3288 while 2.4751 remains intact.
[B]Strategy[/B] - If already bearish, remain so. If not, then get bearish against 2.4554, target 2.4124

[B]Commentary[/B] - We remain longer term bears of the GBPAUD as declines are impulsive and rallies prove corrective. Remain bearish against the 6/27 high of 2.3911. A break of the 6/8 low at 2.3287 targets the July 2005 low at 2.2671. We are showing the monthly chart today in order to show the break of the 22 year trendline. The bearish implications are immense.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Remain Bearish, move risk to 2.3911 from 2.4295, target 1 is 2.2671