il be watching and ticking them cheers
The price has been bearish in the H4 chart. However, the level of 164.700 may hold the price as a level of support. The price reacted at this level earlier. Let us patiently wait for the price action around this level to find its next direction.
The pair made a bearish breakout at 164.700 and traded below the level in the H4 chart. The sellers may keep their eyes on the pair to go short.
GBP fell this morning across the board - reason was the bad news on UK Retail sales released this morning.
Market players were already aware that there would likely be a miss - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) publish their monthly survey 2 weeks ahead of the Office of National Statistics (ONS).
It’s now evening - thought I’d mention the silly comment often seen on the forum that news is already priced in - therefore no point in a trader even thinking about news or it’s numbers.
UK Retail Sales numbers were published just over one hour before I posted - it was a miss as mentioned.
Since I posted this particular pair has fallen from 163.90 to 162.90
So GBP/JPY is the “beast” as it’s known - maybe unique to this cross, perhaps UK news is already priced in on GBP “across the board”?
Check Gbp/Usd or EG today to see if that is true - also check one other thing - how often it’s possible to get a second chance if you miss the move on news early in the day.
News priced in?
Thought I’d show you that this comment is nothing but waffle… The market had done it’s research and already priced in the UK Retail data… As the GBPJPY on the 4 Hour had been retracing back to it’s Average Price since the London Open on the 14th (Wednesday!)
Any competent traders should have been short on this pair from around the 166 level as it came back to rest on the 200 MA for the weekend close… If you are playing around at the 163 level you missed a great opportunity for a nice 300 pip win…
FWIW… The GBPJPY has been in a range since April - May… Tues 13th it hit the top of the range…
Which direction did you think it was most likely to go?
Pity that BP don’t have a dislike button
For guys wanting to incorporate FA into their trading thinking do not succumb to the notion that all the Fundamentals are already priced in and therefore it’s useless to look at news.
@sharabelabd correctly suggested patience at the 164.70 level and to wait for price action to determine direction - this is wise advice.
My post on the BRC showed that it was possible to have a directional bias preceding UK Retail Sales release - some traders therefore set sell stops accordingly on GBP
Other traders to the advice of wait and see on the news release - 2 arrows on hr1 below - 1st is at the news release - possible to see those sell stops activated - then there is another arrow - this is one hr after the news release - the candle begins at the time of my post alerting re BRC/ONS
This candle represents the more cautious who sold at market around 8.00am local - worth a safe 100 pips.
Happens that I use EUR/GBP every working day so I have to be alert to news from the evening before - UK news obviously impacts GBP pairs and crosses - numbers such as Retail Sales if returned not as expected will affect price on that day.
Hope I’ve shown how to get a preview so to speak on one simple news item - there are many more.
Anyways good luck to all.
My post above is for the pure Trading Technicians… For traders that want to incorporate FA into their trading… He’s what happened…
As far back as Monday the 5th Sept… Markets knew/speculated that UK Retail was negative and the data was due for release in 12 days… So they started to push the GBPJPY (and other GBP crosses) up and out of it’s ranging slumber (45 days) between the ~160 and ~163 level…
Over the next 4-5 days GBPJPY was painstakingly lifted into the ~166 levels, ensuring dumb money (DM) was nice and Bullish… Then on Friday the 9th Sept, pushed the price back down ~200 pips to take out DM’s stops and generate some liquidity for the next push upward during the Asian session on Monday 12th Sept.
At the London Open on Monday the 12th, the Market continued building a large short position as price consolidated for 24 hours followed by a huge spike up at the London Open on 13th Sept. trapping extra DM that jumped in long on the GBPJPY.
4 hours later at the New York open they proceeded to sell off the GBPJPY over the following 48 hours culminating in a huge 380+ pip move down, assisted by the Bullish sentiment and the release of the negative UK Retail data.
And coincidentally enough.… The GBPJPY finished the week off back at it’s Average Price of ~163
Average Low Price over the past 90 days (160) Average High Price over the Past 90 Days (166)
(~160 + ~166) / 2 = ~163)) It’s correct… I used a calculator.
Markets knew from at least the 5th that the UK Retail data was going to be poor and made damn sure they made some money out of this data release…
Please… Check your 4H or D1 charts… It will clearly display… Maybe even back test a few News Releases and you’ll see this play is no isolated incident!
The pair made an excellent bearish move. It is in consolidation now. The sellers may keep their eyes in the pair to go short upon having bearish reversal candle followed by a breakout at consolidation support.
GBP/JPY is a promising currency pair like the euro, yes it’s a great thing if it is going in a bull market. Tracking and analysis of currency pairs is must in fx! Keep up the great trades.
I was more know it to be called " The Red Dragon"
haha like that name! its been an interesting pair for sure the last few months
The level of 163.000 seems to be working as a level of support. The buyers may push the price towards the North for a while. The pair may find its next resistance around 165.350.
GBPJPY still respecting the channel… Even after BoJ Intervention…
Top of the range to bottom of the range, bottom of the range to top of the range…
Where did you think price was going to go next? It’s not that hard… Really!
The pair made a strong bearish move in the H4 chart yesterday. It is traded below the last swing low. The sellers may get some short opportunities here.
That’s the level I’m eyeing
Exactly that, but if you sold from the top of the range you would be in a thousand pips profit now !
Today the long awaited “mini budget” was announced by the Chancellor and the new Govt.
Many guys went short GBP in anticipation - there were no surprises in the budget since most was in the Truss leadership campaign - lower taxes, more borrowing etc.
The break of the lower level coincided in timing with the mini budget announcement - the sell algos were simply waiting for confirmation.
Was this ‘news’ priced in?
Well the news was already out there but the market needed confirmation - and it reacted - I thought maybe would take a little longer but hey - profit is profit.
Edit: I kept those 2 down arrows on the chart from my last post this thread for a reason
Yeah as expected with the mini budget being announced.
Massive drop down. Really similar to GU