Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

That should be a “new high”

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All green day for yen pairs and no change in rank order

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Yen pairs are on a roll again, long term trade USDJPY just keeps on giving

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Mostly green day, US stocks rally but none of the Yen pairs has even moved half of percent

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Looking at US stocks ( DOW-30) we are having a good rally today but are still stuck in a range. I am looking at the closing price of 29888 on June 17th for our low and 30934 on June 28th for our high. It is a coin toss in which one will be broken first. I am seeing nothing price action-wise that would suggest we have seen the bottom, big numbers can serve as support and 30K seems to be the number being defended so far. If anyone sees something that might give us some insight as to which way this market is likely to breakout please feel free to share

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I use a simple method of speculating where price is likely to go… And it works more often than not.

I just bring up a chart with a zoom level that includes 185 - 236 candles and draw a line across the price action… The average from the top of the highest candle to the bottom of the lowest candle (not including wicks). And this is a basic average price…

The market assesses the US30 is cheap if it is below the line and expensive if it is above… Simple.
And price will more often than not move back to this level… US30 average price is currently around the 31571.0 level… So price should head back to this level. (See US30 4 Hour below)

It’s sort of mixing the MA200 level with a Fibonacci 50% type of concept…

Once I have added the level, I then scroll back through say 10 - 30 days of the chart to see how many times this level caused support or resistance activity, the more touches the more comfortable I am with using the level as a trend direction signal… Try it on your own charts, you’ll be surprised of the accuracy.

I picked up 51 pips this morning on the US500 using this strategy… SWA doesn’t work on Indices.

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On the US30, my caramilla pivot indicator points to the (H3) 31690 to (H4) 32008 zone which also happens to be a 61.8% fib retracement and the 34 SMA daily confluence zone. There is bullish divergence between price and the stochastic indicator on 20 May 2022 and 20 June 2022. (On two arrows on Dennis’ chart) Lastly, the 7 week trend (35 days) on the COT report points a 3.3% push to the upside as confirmation. At best, one would then look to buy the US30 up to 31690 zone. One would also look for shorts at / around the 31690 level for a continuation of bearish momentum. Unfortunately for some reason, I’m unable to upload my chart.

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All Yen pairs up for the week, +200 pips for current Top Trade EURUSD* , and long-term Top Trade USDJPY breaks out to new highs

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Weekly Chart

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And there we are back to the 31571 level…

Over 400 Pips in roughly 3 days… No I didn’t trade it!!

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Mix day as bears take over afternoon trading

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Stocks selloff as price reaches top of range

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Who owns Google, 20 for 1 stock split today, Amazon did the same thing recently. Look for both of these stocks to join the DOW 30 ,

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Thing is, most brokers offer fractional shares now anyways. This wasn’t as popular when Tesla did it, but I guess this is good for customers who don’t have access to fractional shares.

I’d love to see Amazon join the DOW30. I thought Google was already there, go figure.

brokers as in CFD or real stock brokers? Not heard of that when owning real stocks.

I assumed it was like the FTSE100 and they’d already be in the DOW

Both, but not all. I don’t think banks will let you buy partial shares. But it’s the same concept as Bitcoin, you don’t have to buy 1, you can ‘invest’ $100 into it instead. Also when buying indices, you can now buy 0.1 units through most brokers instead of having to buy 1 unit.

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All green day, DOW breaks out

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The bears took over the second half of the day

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It looks like we are head to a bearish close to the week,

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The weekly chart of USDJPY shows a complete reversal of the previous week’s bullish breakout. This pattern of a long green candle followed by a long red candle would suggest that we can expect more selling for USDJPY

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Looking at the S&P weekly chart, I am not seeing anything to suggest that this current uptrend is not just another bear trap, with August and September the two worst months for the market just ahead of us, I am not buying, YET!

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Another huge selloff for Verizon and AT&T , these companies of not going away, and continue to get cheaper

at some point, they will be a great buy, but until then they do pay a nice dividend

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