I use a simple method of speculating where price is likely to go… And it works more often than not.
I just bring up a chart with a zoom level that includes 185 - 236 candles and draw a line across the price action… The average from the top of the highest candle to the bottom of the lowest candle (not including wicks). And this is a basic average price…
The market assesses the US30 is cheap if it is below the line and expensive if it is above… Simple.
And price will more often than not move back to this level… US30 average price is currently around the 31571.0 level… So price should head back to this level. (See US30 4 Hour below)
It’s sort of mixing the MA200 level with a Fibonacci 50% type of concept…
Once I have added the level, I then scroll back through say 10 - 30 days of the chart to see how many times this level caused support or resistance activity, the more touches the more comfortable I am with using the level as a trend direction signal… Try it on your own charts, you’ll be surprised of the accuracy.
I picked up 51 pips this morning on the US500 using this strategy… SWA doesn’t work on Indices.