GBPUSD - all longs - failed :(

Went long at gthe 3 triangle highlighted areas based on S&R.
I saw the bearish divergence on the 4hr charts but went with the general trend. Even at the trendline it broke through. Hmm

long term trend is clearly down!

Nope, it’s in a current uptrend. Most of the technical analysis reports agree.
Starts at 1.3654
ALso, we are at a new high since January.
I think perhaps my original trendline should have been a bit lower.

Yes, it’s indeed in a uptrend since about march 10 when price failed to make a lower low.

If you apply Bollinger bands to daily, you’ll see that price merely bounced off the upper band suggesting a retrace is ongoing. This retrace will either turn into a downtrend, or (more likely) end shortly to resume the overall uptrend again.

I’d be looking for a long position once there’s confirmation that the retrace is ending and the uptrend is resuming.

Remember that your analysis doesn’t find winning trades, it only gives you an edge which you have to repeat many times to realize the profits from. :slight_smile:

hi there fellow gbpusd trader. take a look at the GBPUSD daily chart with bollinger bands; its on an uptrend, but you took your trades on days when the trades were near to, or already touched the upper bollinger band. be careful of these, gbpusd likes to adhere to the bollinger bounce phenomenon on a larger timeframe.

its too early to say its in an uptrend, that would mean a full reversal of the drop from 2.0000 area. In my opinion, its still in a long term downtrend, and i think there will be new lows to come, but I wouldnt rule out a retracement to 1.7 area before another leg down.

Keep trying and learning…


I guess that depends on how long- or short term one’s analysis of the market is :slight_smile:

thats true, but there has been no significant retrace since the fall, and only now are we touching the 23.6 fib area… so no reversal as yet in my opinion.

Your 1 hour chart looks a lot like a sloppy head & shoulders reversal pattern. Textbook would say right shoulder should be lower than left and it�s not, but might be close enough to call it a downtrend or at least a strong down swing.

I have to agree with cdawg on this one. I sold GJ in london for +97 pips, as the retrace weakened, and continuation signs appeared. I would rather be on the short side of the GBP.