GBPUSD Scenarios

Here are two scenarios for GBPUSD.

Scenario 1 (black arrows):
Price is approaching a supply area along with the 1.26 psychological level, lined up with this area we can see the 50 EMA on the daily as an added confluence. I would expect price to bounce from this area a fair bit and produce some pips.

You can also see that the 61.8% fib is just a bit further down from this level, it is also possible that we can see a slight pullback from this region (1.25-1.2515) to the downside.

It is entirely possible for price to come down to the 1.18 demand zone (marked in green). It may take a while, but this is the only point where I would be looking for buys.

I have also marked up the 1.2 psychological number on the chart as we should see some form of a bounce from this area, whether small or big.

Scenario 2 (grey arrows):
Should price break straight through the 1.26 region, the next key level to keep an eye out for would be the 1.28 area - this should produce some form of a pullback, but the main area I would be eyeing up would be the 1.3150-1.32 area as this is a huge supply zone.

It is also worth keeping an eye on the 1.300 area - as this is a big psychological number. I have also marked this on the chart as it is worth keeping in mind that these are big confluences to keep in mind. Banks often tend to move their money at round numbers.

Hope this helps - let me know what you think. Cheers.

5 Likes

Thanks very much for the detailed look!

Scenario 2 for me

Scenario 1. The QE in the US will not stop the weakening of their economy

Currently short this pair. Made a quick buck going long last Thurs!

2 for me! I think we will get a bullish pound and bearish dollar soon.

Looks like number 1 is in play.