GBPUSD Turning Over?

Monthly/Weekly chart analysis

Playing the range may be a smart option.
I broke down exactly what I was seeing in the post above - not sure if you were able to take a look @ that. There was some interesting price action on the Weekly chart which keyed me into 300pt decline we’ve seen since 3/7/2014.

Although the structure reads bullish breakout on the monthly - breaking those candles apart to the weekly tells a much different story for the GBP.

Dear Forexunlimited,

I just read (and understood most of) your post - I am at work, so I cannot be too thorough.

I know that by technicals alone it is not wise to believe a currency pair like GBP/USD will simply plunge…TOMORROW…

However, as you say, given time, it may well play out in the way that is hinted at on the higher (e.g. monthly) time

frames…

It is probably early to go short, but I have already, on a low-risk position (1k), in the belief that the swing against me

will be small (even at 200 or 300 pips) compared to the potential profit to the downside.

I will sit on this one and let it run to 1.69, if necessary, and back … or simply down, if that is where, as we think,

it is heading…

Happy trading.

A long term position trader here on BP? Do my eyes deceive me? Just kidding… good for you! Shorter term… I would say that wouldn’t I… being currently long (as stated below). :stuck_out_tongue: I see a bounce?

Well, there will be others, I am sure… I do not trade one style or time-frame only: I mix it up, short-term, medium-term, and long-term… It just depends what opportunities there are… Sometimes I trade the news, sometimes I carry trade (longer term), etc.

LOL… playing both sides against the middle. My two cents… print high @ 6548. Pull back tomorrow. 6458 the low print. Longer term upside. :20:

What type of carry are you getting with a 1k position?

:stuck_out_tongue: :slight_smile:

Oh, well, you know… enough :59::59::59:

21PT grab this morning/overnight on the Pound.
Was looking for shorts EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.

INTRADAY



[ul]
[li]Strong rally in price
[/li][li]Rally directly into a supply zone
[/li][li]Nice channel action
[/li][li]Target was logical (recent swing point + a few point buffer)
[/li][/ul]

Sell into strength, buy into weakness.

EDIT: Too many things open @ once, misspoke in original post.

One week on from that ’ lets see re the techs’ (price was 6498) and we have the turn of the fundamentals.

UK retail sales coming up, the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) do their own survey and are reporting healthy sales for Feb.

So let’s see…

Oh, and daily pivot point is 6559, so using techs I have a line for a SL.

Good time - right now- to move short @ 6630. ICH indicates to me a move towards 6500. Could be a very profitable day.

Update:

So 6559 held the line - the CBI survey (usually published 3 days ahead of the retail numbers was again correct).

So lets see…

Techs 1 Fundamentals 1

In truth the above score is incorrect, the correct score is;

Small retail trader who uses Techs AND Fundamentals …2

‘Smart’ bank trader …0

:slight_smile:

Re-tested the upper weekly close.


Should have posted the news on the Feb retail sales. Note the dates and time of the news item:

CBI: Retail sales continue to grow but at slower pace – CBI

BBC News - UK retail sales rise strongly, CBI survey finds


H1 Chart
Seeing signs of stalling under 1.67

HD Link to image

1.6683 looks to have been the high. Daily pivot has now turned over and printed a low for the first time since the sustained daily up move. Only taking shorts now.

You think there will be enough volatility to take a position in the run-up to NFP in a few days?

Probably not… Best wait until Friday…

On the 1h (the chart you posted) there may well be? I rode the two last legs down from the high. The last one, I exited @ M2 - 6620 (on the daily pivot). I expect PA now to bounce up to pivot @ 6635 or even possibly R1 @ 6651 but not much beyond that. If we get the bounce, I’ll take the short.

EDIT: Short triggered @ R1.

Good call Carter - only 7 pips out lol.

Weekly pp has stopped the fall for now at least :slight_smile: