Took profit off a few positions held from last week.
Trying to get flat ahead of NFP.
Would like to get short on a pullback to 6625 zone.
Carter, I’m in line w/ your analysis.
I think for now I’d like to remain flat, see the GBP rally hard up into our zone (6625 - 6650) then I’ll fade the rally (my favorite strategy for NFP).
H4 Chart
Agreed. :5:
I’d like to see where the close is tonight. Good luck with NFP… its the one day a month I take off. Broke out the ‘wind jammer’ and boots… off to the mountains to get some me time. 
I’ve resurrected this thread because of it’s title and recent relevance.
If ever we have been having a clash of economic outlook and technical then this is it.
A respected Technical Strategist has been warning of a major high in this pair since Feb past, he has repeated this outlook as recently as last month.
Then on the other hand we have the BOE upgrading the UK economic outlook for the year ahead, and since that upgrade there has been a flow of healthy numbers released.
So will cable reverse as it has done each time it has reached it’s current level since 2009, or will the stream of good news brush aside the technical resistance??? … let see ahead.
I should have added that this is perhaps one of those times in my learning curve when I’m hit with a real choice.
Everything I understand and have learned over the years tells me that cable will go higher, yet everything taught and talked about on this and other sites, some of whom have such experienced and often quoted strategists, say the opposite.
Is this one of those times that maybe we may learn exactly who it is that drives the fx market, is it the case that squiggly lines showing what has happened in the past, or is it the really what the market perceives to be the investor’s choices ahead.
Maybe I’ll learn something…
Interesting point, peterma…
I agree that the ‘squiggly lines’ have limited appeal if the fundamentals do not align with them… I am of the bearish GBP camp at the moment, based on an overdone forward move on an anticipated 2014 BoE rate hike… What other fundamental factors would drive the Pound higher if the rate-hike bulls have lost their conviction?
Questions, questions!
I don’t see PA breaking out of the long term range on this wave, looking to the weekly. My read is PA is currently in a retrace off 6740 but will not break the high of 04/16 (6840). Looking at the daily, my preference will be to look for shorts. The bank holiday weekend in the UK (Friday through Monday) complicates things though due to decreased volatility.
Yes, the interest rate debate is perhaps the most interesting aspect (excuse the pun) of GBP fundamentals.
Some months ago I referred to an upcoming inflation number as ‘a fly in the ointment’ - all subsequent inflation numbers have been exactly that - largely disregarded by the market.
The most recent numbers on April 15 should have dispelled any notion of rate hikes and GBP should have fallen, but the market is more interested in how secure the UK outlook is, thus the employment numbers played a more important role the next day.
(As many economists teach - increasing inflation is usually managed by central banks by increasing interest rates).
Carney has consistently emphasized that there is no rate increase ahead, he even shifted the goal posts on employment in an attempt to persuade the market to this effect, but the market seems to be making it’s own mind up.
After the sustained longer up move from 1.6460 to what now looks like the current medium term high at 1.6920, do we as a thread once again consider GU is going to roll over? PA is currently in a retrace. My two cents, I’m looking to get in short on the next down move. Thoughts?
I’m short off the 1.69 zone, looking to cover around 1.68.
Actually just wrote about this today.
Jake
Well played FU. Personally, I prefer a test and rejection of the high. Looks like it will be on the cards. Just looking for the short. Very good write up and 1% exposure for newb’s and experienced alike is sound advice.
Still bullish - fundamentals are driving this one, next resistance point 7020, maybe a little profit taking there, but I’m not going short regardless - eventually we will get the 8000 number.
Agreed for the most part.
I covered and am getting out of the way for now.
I was hedging this trade off GBPAUD shorts, so ended up + a few points for today.
Good luck out there traders!
What are these numbers that people are talking about? The resistance points? What does that mean? Resistance point 7020 or 8000?
The line on this weekly chart is 7020 - most short term traders are reluctant to trade through such a line, so if you are bullish you may wait for a reaction south and then buy.
Or you may wait to see if it breaks the line and then buy, or you may wait to see if it breaks the line, then wait some more to see if it continues north, than wait some more to see if it falls back down to the line - and then buy 
Or you could just say ‘think I’ll sell at the round number’.
Or you sell at R2 on the weekly pivot. Decisions, decisions? 
I am with Peterma… The 1.69 - 1.70 boundary looks back many years as resistance…
as I was saying on page 4 of this thread
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/64347-gbpusd-turning-over-4.html
but, of course no resistance lasts forever…
What Peterma and ForexEagle say is absolutely right, in terms of strategy…
I am one of those majority of Cable shorts (sellers, not short trousers)! If this went through that historic resistance line,
I would scratch my head… I mean, if the BoE does not raise its interest rate or change its policy on Thursday, then there
will be no guidance/presser, so you may expect no reaction from this pair OR a move to the downside… But a move to
the upside? I really do not know how to see that one happening, but then again, the market is always right!
Cheers
Then throw into the mix this story - it’ll cost just over 100b USD
BBC News - Pfizer cannot use UK as ‘tax haven’, Cable tells MPs
Now it is turning down. I think after coming 1.6905 it will just go to upward again. After matching some formula for GBPUSD I found it. May be it is not correct but I am thinking so. Let see what is going to happen. I think this time trading GBPUSD is a risky thing. It can change it’s direction any time. So it is better not to open a new trade.
Yes, but often I’ll ask myself where is the greater risk? - I know the least risk is being flat LOL, but imagine that you are a trader whose actions affect price, I’ll call him Bank for convenience.
Often I’ll put myself into Bank’s mind, unlike us he often doesn’t have the luxury of staying out, so I try to judge what has been doing lately and what he may be looking at up ahead, what he may do in the next days/weeks, and indeed when.
On GBP, he has been adding to his position, he has stopped, maybe sold a little, watched price come back and then in he goes again. He has been doing that for a while now, buoyed by a stream of good news on the UK economy. The daily gives me guide on his actions.
I judge from this that it will take a big shift on UK news to make Bank a seller, sure he’s sitting on a handsome profit, but he always likes more - will he take major profits at 7000? - well he did do that at 6750 so it’s possible, but when he started out seriously buying in the first week of July 2013 (wk chart) he kept going for 1300 pips, he came back in first wk Nov and we are 1100 pips from there.
He’ll give us a clue to his thinking, a little tomorrow, but def on Friday.
I don’t like fence sitting so I’m taking the view that no, GBP/USD is not for turning
