[B]Genzr’s Price Action Journal[/B]
Hi all, I’m looking to document my strategy and setups to add some structure and discipline to my trading system. I’ve been trading on and off for approximately 3 years but just need to take it to the next level. I hope to remain consistent and profitable over the next 12 months with the view to go full-time over the next couple of years.
[B]Strategy[/B]
I’m trading price action using support resistance levels & candlestick patterns only. As I also work a full time job here in Australia, it’s not possible for me to trade during the Asia session. I’m looking primarily to enter positions that present themselves during the European Session, holding through from anywhere between 1-24 hours.
[B]Key Points[/B]
• No holding of positions through medium/high importance news item unless potential outcomes are understood
• Book will be closed on Friday. No carry trades through the weekend
• Support/resistance levels drawn on 1d, 4h, and 1h charts
• 1d and 4h chart to find trends/channels/levels
• 1h chart to find decent entry positions
• Holding period generally between 1-24 hours
• 1:1 risk reward ratio as an absolute minimum
• Maximum 5% of account balance risk per position.
[B]Analysis [/B]
I will be setting up my charts and posting analysis on either Saturday or Sundays. I will be focusing on how my setups performed through the previous week, as well as identifying potential opportunities for the week ahead.
I’ve entered a long position as I believe this pair may have just broken out of a downward channel. Looking for prices to retest the 1.10933 level dating back to 24th September. This level also falls just below the 50% fib retracement level drawn from the highs set last month on the 17th September.
EUR/USD setup played out perfectly but I took profit far too early.
Still finding that I’m trading a lot on gut instinct, which kinda scares me at times. I’m trying to be more patient and wait for better setups.
Made about 40 trades this week. Best trade was scaling into a shorting on the AUD/USD for 59 pips. Worst trade was going long on AUD/NZD. Looking at the trade in hindsight, there was no bullish signal to take this trade, could have been more patient.
Will be posting some forecasts for the week commencing 19/10/15.
Will be keeping an eye on Chinese GDP figures on Monday to see if we get that catalyst to move back down to the 0.72000 psychological level. I wouldn’t be surprised to see continued Aussie weakness heading into Tuesday’s RBA meeting minutes.
I feel as though the 0.72000 psychological level is going to be decent support as it coincides with the 23.6% fib level from the daily highs back in May. Then again, we could break through if we get some dovish comments out of the RBA, poor Chinese GDP data, and stronger US housing figures.
US Jobless claims and existing home sales later in the weak could provide further conviction if we get some good prints.
SWFX Sentiment Index shows over 70% of liquidity consumers net long on AUD/USD. I believe there is room for open sentiment to change which could amplify a downward move in the pair.
In my opinion, we are going to see weakness in this pair early during the week as we re-test the 1.12000 psychological level. US Housing starts and building permits figures on Tuesday may provide catalyst if figures come in better than expected.
Of course there is an ECB rate decision on Thursday. Consensus is that rates will remain unchanged with the usual dovish comments coming from the central bank.
I think the US data toward the end of the week , initial jobless claims and existing home sales will have greater potential for moving the market.
Good US data will increase the already hawkish comments coming from the fed, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike before years end, which could push the pair even lower towards the 1.11000 level.
From your MyFXBook page, it appears that you’ve been taking far fewer trades over the past few weeks, but your results remain fairly consistent. Is this a deliberate change? Or have there just been fewer enticing setups?
In either case, it’s great to see someone having this kind of success! Best of luck!
