Germany’s Current Account surplus is set to narrow in January to print at 9.2 billion euro from 12.3 billion in the preceding month. The seasonally adjusted decline in exports (-4.0%) is set to outpace the drop in imports (-3.5%) on dwindling demand for German manufactured goods. Indeed, factory orders have fallen -27.7% and industrial production has shed -12.0% in the year to December. On the capital side of the equation is likely to add to downward pressure: German stocks slipped -10.7% through January while the Euro lost -7%. The overall external balance for the Euro Zone has trended lower, down -67.3% through 2008. Meanwhile, the US trade gap has considerably narrowed, with December result showing the smallest monthly shortfall in nearly 5 years. From a long-term perspective, this implies a net outflow of money from the regional bloc and into the States, making for structural downward pressure on the EURUSD exchange rate.