[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 9, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied across the board on Thursday on position squaring before the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, and the rebounding equity markets helped as well. The end of the week will be dictated by the reading of the non-farm payrolls; the market had priced in a soft reading between 85 and 95K, so the risk seems to be on the upside. The “perfect” area is between 110 and 120K. Should I remind you to fasten your seat belts???
Euro/dollar
The market ignored the fact that the ECB hiked rates and that the German industrial output rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent in January, and the euro/dollar gave back most of the gains made on Wednesday. However, the pair is now stuck in a double inside range, so more information is needed. Get your cues from the US jobless data.
Immediate support is now pegged to 1.3115. Below it, the combination of two Fibos at 1.3070 still provides strong support. Next supports loom at 1.3030 and 1.3000.
Initial resistance is at 1.3160. This is followed by 1.3185 and 1.3212. Above this level, the pair has strong resistance from a pivotal top at 1.3258. Distant resistance looms at 1.3325 and 1.3367.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with breakouts expected either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen made the expected decline only in early trading and then made an aggressive rally. This means the carry trade hysteria is over and the choppy adjustment has started. The Gann pivots at 115.50 and 116.85 should have given you plenty of entry and exit levels.
Above 117.35, strong resistance is at 118.25, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 118.75 and 117.75.
Immediate support is seen at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support is pegged at 115.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 115.00 and 116.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with breakouts expected either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed most of Wednesday’s gains and got stuck in a double inside range. We need more information and maybe the US jobless data will shed some light.
Immediate support is at 1.9240. Below 1.9225, the pair should re-test its pivotal low at 1.9179.
Initial resistance is at 1.93850. Above 1.9425 the pair has distant resistance at 1.9520.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with breakouts expected either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc surged on Thursday to reach its highest level since February 27. The correction eliminated about half of the losses made between late February and Monday. Will the US data allow further strength today?
Immediate resistance is at 1.2295. The next level is at 1. 2370. Next cap is 1.2435.
Initial support is at 1.2240. Below the strong 1.2220 level, support is seen at 1.2170. Strong support then follows at 1.2105.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with breakouts expected either way
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish