Forex Market Commentary for March 10, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar recovered some of its losses after being hurt on Friday by a very weak non-farm payrolls report. Following a mild bounce versus the European currencies, the US currency should see another bout of weakness. Dollar/yen should remain under pressure following the Japanese machinery orders report for January, which showed the fastest increase in seven years.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar soared on Friday to yet a new record high before trimming gains. My model remains long since February 14. The pair is certainly overbought, and this Friday’s behavior (for the second week in a row) suggests a brief bearish reversal, but only a close below 1.5020 floor would jeopardize the bullish outlook.
Initial resistance is at 1.5456. Above this pivot top, resistance remains at 1.5575. The next level is at 1.5600.
Immediate support is at 1.5290. Below 1.5175, there is further support at 1.5020.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen nailed an eight-year low on Friday, and following the strong Japanese data the selling pressure should continue. My system remains short positions since February 26.
Key level is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. The next levels are 101.43 and 101.00.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 102.80. The next level is 103.20. Above 104.20, strong resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a three-month high on Friday and this strength should persist, as a double bottom is at work. My model remains long since February 2.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0216. A break above 2.0245 would signal another further rally to 2.0370.
Immediate support is now seen at 2.0085. Below 2.0030, the next level follows at 1.9940.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss remains weak after collapsing to a new record low on Friday and the medium-term trend remains bearish. My model remains short since February 21. Dollar/Swiss franc is oversold here and a brief bounce early this week wouldn’t surprise. But the outlook remains negative in the medium term.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0135. Below it, support is now pegged at 1.0060.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0290. The next level is 1.0370.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
[B]See Also[/B]
[ul]
[li]GFT[/li]Trade forex with GFT today![/ul]