[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 26, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied on Friday, as expected, after reversing early losses, and a strong report on US existing home sales was of help. The immediate outlook is positive, but the US currency is facing significant resistance at nearby levels.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell for the second day on Friday from Wednesday’s two-year high in line with a bearish reversal formation. It closed below 1.3300, the trendline rising since March 9, and the outlook is now negative. But the pair must break another significant support to confirm this view.
Initial support is at 1.3240. Below this level, the next floor is at 1.3220. Distant support is at 1.3200.
Initial resistance is at 1.3330. Above 1.3385, the euro/dollar retains resistance at 1.3410, 1.3435 and 1.3475. The pair then has distant resistance at 1.3610.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen recouped early losses to close unchanged on Friday. It got stuck in an inside range, so we need a bit more information. The outlook is mixed.
Initial resistance remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.
Immediate support is still seen at 117.70. The key support level is at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support I sat 115.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell on Friday as well in line with the bearish reversal formation seen a day earlier. The pair should edge lower today, but strong immediate support at 1.9575 must be overcome.
Strong support follows at 1.9550. Below 1.9500, the pair has further support at 1.94450. Distant support is now seen at 1.9375.
Initial resistance is at 1.9645. Next levels are 1.9725 and 1.9755 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9830, resistance is pegged at 1.9915 from a pivot high.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied to a 10-day high on Friday, so it finally extricated itself from a week-long inside range. The immediate outlook seems positive.
If 1.2210 breaks, then the dollar/Swiss franc should march further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.
Initial support is at 1.2150. The next level follows at 1.2110. Support is then seen at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish