[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 29, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied on Wednesday versus the European currencies, despite a weak US economic report, but slumped against the yen. The yen rallied across the board ahead of the end of the Japanese fiscal year and on sales of crosses. Durable goods orders expanded only 2.5% in February after contracting 9.3% in January.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell on Wednesday from a one-week high of 1.3373 and this signals an intermediate bearish reversal. There is now a bearish bias for the day.
Initial support is at 1.3285. Below the area between 1.3250 and 1.3240, the next floor is at 1.3220. Distant support is at 1.3200.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3350. Above 1.3385, the euro/dollar retains resistance at 1.3410, 1.3435 and 1.3475. The pair then has distant resistance at 1.3610.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen made a collapsing decline on Wednesday, reaching the lowest level since March 19, and briefly violated the bottom of a medium-term rising wedge. This means the outlook turned slightly negative from mixed.
Immediate support is seen at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support is pegged at 115.50.
Initial resistance is at 117.45. Above 118.00, strong resistance is at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell again on Wednesday but remained confined to an inside range. The immediate outlook is mixed. It may be a tad early, but Cable is starting to look like forming a diamond top here.
Immediate support is at 1.9570. Next level is 1.9550. Below 1.9500, the pair has further support at 1.9450. Distant support is now seen at 1.9375.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.9695. Above 1.9725, next level is at 1.9755 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9830, resistance is pegged at 1.9915 from a pivot high.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss encountered the expected decline in the morning on Wednesday, when it nailed a six-day low at 1.2075. It then rallied on short covering after Iran seemed to look for a solution to its conflict with the U.K. The pair should stretch higher today as well, but at a reduced rate.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2190. If 1.2210 breaks, then the dollar/Swiss franc should march further to 1.2230. Distant resistance comes at 1.2290.
Initial support is at 1.2125. Support then remains at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed