[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 30, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
Decent US GDP and weekly claims data helped the dollar recover on Thursday, particularly against the yen. The dollar should respond to the bevy of US data, featuring personal spending, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan. The bias should be on the downside on the last day of the first quarter.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar edged lower on Thursday, as expected. There is now a mildly bullish bias for the day.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3350. Above 1.3385, the euro/dollar retains resistance at 1.3410, 1.3435 and 1.3475. The pair then has distant resistance at 1.3610.
Initial support is at 1.3300. Below the area between 1.3250 and 1.3240, the next floor is at 1.3220. Distant support is at 1.3200.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen rallied on Thursday to recover its collapsing decline on Wednesday. This outlook remains slightly negative.
Initial resistance is at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Distant resistance follows 119.25 and then at 119.65.
Immediate support is seen at 117.35. Strong support follows at 116.85 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support is pegged at 115.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar traded sideways after falling for two days but remained confined to an inside range. The immediate outlook remains mixed. Again, it may be early, but Cable is starting to look like forming a diamond top here.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9570. Next level is 1.9550. Below 1.9500, the pair has further support at 1.9450. Distant support is now seen at 1.9375.
Initial resistance is at 1.9680. Above 1.9725, next level is at 1.9755 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Above 1.9830, resistance is pegged at 1.9915 from a pivot high.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss edged higher on Thursday, as expected. The pair should edge lower today.
Initial support is at 1.2135. Support then remains at 1.2070. Below a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000. Below 1.1970, there is a pivotal low at 1.1901.
Immediate resistance is at 1.2226. If 1.2250 breaks, then the dollar/Swiss franc should march further to 1.2290. Distant resistance comes at 1.2355.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed