[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 3, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The pound surged on Monday after a barrier at 1.9750 was tripped amid expectations for another rate hike in England, but otherwise the dollar traded sideways. The US ISM report was mildly weak. Trading should not be overly aggressive ahead of the Judeo-Christian holidays and during the spring vacation. Sideways trading should prevail.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar traded sideways in a tight range, getting stuck in an inside range, and closed little changed on Monday – pretty much as expected. Mixed to higher trading is favored today as well.
Initial resistance remains at 1.3400. Next levels are 1.3435 and 1.3475.
Immediate support still comes at 1.3295. Next level is 1.3255. Below 1.3225, support remains at 1.3200.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
The dollar/yen made little progress on Monday as well and got stuck in an inside range.
Initial resistance remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Next level is 119.00.
Below 117.35 there is support at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
On Monday, sterling/dollar surged to its highest level since January 24 and this strength should persist – albeit at a reduced pace.
Initial resistance is at 1.9815. A break above this level would signal another bout of aggressive strength, but this is unlikely. There is a pivot high at 1.9914. One can argue that a bullish flag has been unfurled, but the target at 2.0200 looks a little unrealistic at this time.
Immediate support is at 1.9740. Strong support follows at 1.9695. Only a break below 1.9660 would signal that Cable has resumed its decline. It would then slide to 1.9550.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss swerved quietly on Monday, when it got entrenched in an inside range. The pair should consolidate today as well.
Immediate support is at 1.2100. Below 1.2080 there is a key level at 1.2050. Below 1.2030, dollar/Swiss franc has strong support at 1.2000.
Initial resistance comes at 1.2185. The next level is 1.2235. Above 1.2370, strong resistance comes at 1.2400.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed