[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 13, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar sank across the board on Thursday, as the incessant demand for the commodity currencies spilled over the European currencies and the yen as well. The dollar is starting to look a bit oversold, but this shouldn’t last for long. Following a brief bounce, the US currency should encounter further weakness. This being said, Friday will see the release of the Trade balance report for February, the PPI report for March and the University of Michigan survey for April. Any of these reports may be market movers, but the trade report should be disregarded.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar resumed its strong uptrend on Thursday and reached a new over two-year high.
Above 1.3525, resistance follows at 1.3555 and 1.3588. There is a pivotal high at 1.3666.
Immediate support is seen at 1.3480. Below 1.3420, the next levels are 1.3365 and 1.3340. Distant support is pegged at 1.3300.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mildly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
One day after climbing to its highest level since late February, dollar/yen slipped on Thursday. Sideways to lower trading remains favored, but watch out for the big levels nearby.
Below 118.75, strong support remains at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Initial and key resistance is still seen at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15. Above 120.75, distant resistance now comes at 121.05 from another 50-point pivot.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar climbed higher on Thursday, and should push up today as well.
Immediate resistance is at 1.9840. The pound will likely attack the area between 1.9905 and 1.9935. Naturally, there is psychological resistance at 2.0000.
Initial support is at 1.9780. Next floors are at 1.9750 and 1.9705. Below 1.9680, strong support follows at 1.9640. A pivotal low is at 1.9590.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
The dollar/Swiss franc fell to a one-week low on Thursday, but trimmed losses after testing briefly the bottom of its rising channel. More sideways to lower trading is likely today.
Support is seen at 1.2135, which marks the bottom the channel. If this floor breaks, then dollar/Swiss franc would likely challenge the 1.2075 level. A key level follows at 1.2050.
Initial resistance comes at 1.2200. 1.2240 follows that. Above 1.2282, strong resistance comes at 1.2330.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed