[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 24, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The oversold dollar recovered on Monday versus the European currencies and consolidated against the yen The US currency should march higher against the pound, euro and the franc, as it looks increasingly bullish here, particularly since the pound has no business making a living above $2. Today, keep an eye on the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and the Existing Home sales reports – they may be market movers.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar headed lower on Monday, but reduced its losses by the close. It remains overbought but it should only attempt to fall further today.
Further confirmation would come now from a break below 1.3540. Good support follows nearby at 1.3525. Below 1.3470 there is support at 1.3440. Distant support is at 1.3390.
Initial resistance is at 1.3590. Above 1.3636, the pair retains resistance at 1.3645. Above 1.3705, distant resistance is at 1.3805.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made the expected recovery only a temporary basis, but didn’t hold on to losses either. Expect more consolidation today.
Strong support is still pegged at 118.25 by a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Below 117.60, support is seen at 116.85, from a 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Initial resistance is at 118.75. Above 119.00, strong resistance remains at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar edged lower on Monday and probed again the sub-$2 area. The pair has no business floating above this level ad the hot air that is holding it up should cool soon. If it declines, the slide could be aggressive.
Immediate support is at 1.9950. Below 1.9925, strong support follows at 1.9855.
Initial resistance is at 2.0000. The next levels are 2.0040 and 2.0100. Next cap is seen between 2.0140 and 2.0155. If this area breaks, the pound would likely take attack a Gann level at 2.0200.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied further on Monday after reaching a four-month low of 1.2000 and forming a bullish reversal pattern on Thursday. Buy more only on a confirmation.
The confirmation should come today from a break above the resistance at 1.2120. Further resistance comes at 1.2050. Next level is at 1.2095. Above 1.2145, the next level is 1.2200. Distant resistance is at 1.2255.
Immediate support is at 1.2070. Below 1.2000 there is a key level at 1.1945. Dollar/Swiss franc then has strong support at 1.1885.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish